What if Osama bin Laden is NOT caught by Election Day

[markses]

OK, we've seen no end of speculation on the opposite question. Now, let's put aside - just as a thought experiment - the notion that Osama has already been caught/pinpointed, and suppose that the military is unable to track Osama down by election day.

Will there be repercussions at the polls?

I say no. Because nobody will go out on a limb and make it a campaign issue. For several reasons:

1) It seems to take "Not catching Osama" as a theme, and even a cause. That's not the kind of cause anyone wants to even present the faint impression of supporting.
2) The danger of the October surprise. While I doubt many candidates take it that seriously, I'll bet they factor it into the equation.

So, because candidates won't be able to point to the fact that Osama hasn't been caught, Bush will not lose any votes if he is not caught by November.

What do you think?

[Wickerman]

1. then they will find his grave someday soon lol

he's caught, he's gonna be produced. Look for this nomad to be caught travelling with a semi-trailor full of documents showing he collaborated with Saddam. And, look for it to happen very soon - Bush needs a hit in the worst way.

[truhavoc]

3. I forget where I heard this point

But seriously how hard do you really think it is to find a 6'8'' tall arab guy, on dialysis, and with a 20 million dollar reward on his head? No WMD? Where is Osama is the bigger intellegence failure to be investigating.

[Wickerman]

6. Pretty damn hard when you leave a back door open in Northern Afghn.

like that wasn't planned. my quote was always, how damn hard could it be to find a 7 foot tall arab guy dragging a dialysis machine through the desert with an entourage of 50? - I probably lifted it from late night tv. Why haven't we been looking into the Saudi connection?

[demgrrrll]

2. Here's what I read. A man named Clarke is coming out with a book

that has Rove spooked. His chief collaborator was Beers
who left the agency with disgust and joined the Kerry campaign.
Beers got Plame on board with Kerry. Collectively they have 75 years of counter terrorism experience and are connected in all the right places. They probably know if OBL is on ice somewhere. If that is the case then I am sure they have some sort of plan for their own October surprise. Sounds like a plan to me.

[jpak]

4. BushCo had their chance to get him at Tora Bora

but they blew it.

They really f**ked up and that's why you never hear them speak his name...

[DerBeppo]

5. won't be made an issue

because if "you didn't find ubl" becomes a major issue, than it forces that administration into a corner in finding him.

say it is made an issue, and bush is defeated, then over the next term he still isn't caught and the gop come back in the next election pressing it as "you see? it wasn't as easy as you thought, was it?"

blasting an administration on a subject that you have no way of knowing you can do yourself is always a huge risk and unless it's a major issue with voters, an unnecessary one.

[Old and In the Way]

8. Here's the problem, I think.

We may never know if he died in Tora Bora. We should have taken him in such a way that his remains could be ID'd. But he could be anywhere....shave his beard and you'd be hardpressed to recognize him.

I am more pissed off that we gave 100s, maybe 1000s of AQ regulars and Pakistani Islamic radicals safe passage out of Afghanistan before we put on the bombing show.

See "Escape from Afghanistan" at www.cooperativeresearch.org

[Ardee]

9. your speculation is out of date

We have seen at least two messages from bin Laden since the Tora Bora
debacle. The real point is that ,should bin Laden die or be captured, it will make little difference in this "war". People are fighting oppression, they are fighting for their homelands, they are fighting for their rights, they are fighting for their religions and ,even though we find their tactics so horrific, they will not be stopped by the death of any one man, only by the death of the system that oppresses them.

[OneTwentyoNine]

7. Then St. Ronnie gets the pillow treatment.....n/t