Dana Milbank just predicted an October Surprise.

[Merlin]

Milbank, a solid, establishment journalist--one who actually thinks--just put himself into the tinfoil hat club by predicting on Tweety that we can expect them to "find" a small vial of unknown "WMD-like" substance in Iraq late next October.

It's good to know that there are some journalists who actually approach politics with their eyes and minds open to the vagaries of devious bastards like the current POTUS.

[Stephanie]

1. He actually said the words "October Surprise"

The whole world's on to these MF's.

[RainDog]

2. Osama is the October surprise

that's my guess.

that's the only thing that could cause a surge in confidence in Bush.

funny, but people I don't know, who don't participate on this forum, have been saying that the Bush League is already prepping the American public for this stunt by starting to talk about "we will find Osama."

Rover wouldn't let them say that unless they already knew where he was....most likely on dialysis in the Tora Bora Motel 6, Cave number 43.

[For PaisAn]

4. They said we are SURE we will find Osama..

within the next few months. That certainly sounds like they know exactly where he is.

[atre]

35. Yeah, they were also "certain" that we'd find WMD, though.

Just some perspective.

[welshTerrier2]

6. Chomsky said this yesterday on C-Span

he said there's no question they already have Osama or know exactly where he is and will use this to exploit American voters whenever it suits their needs ...

[Bozita]

17. He also said that elections in America are "bought"

What an enlightening C-SPAN2 offering!

[poskonig]

3. The Truth is out there!

http://www.xfiles.tele2.pl/mp3/The_X-Files_Theme.mp3

[peacetalksforall]

5. What it means is that it will take them until summer to 'take' enough

money from rotten contracts to pay off Saudi Arabians so that they will allow Bin Laden to be taken in (taken in, because every already knows where he is). However, October is a good time to make the announcement. Then if it works in re-electing the barn door closer, Bin Laden will be rescued by Al Queda and whoever pays enough for the rescue.

Pure Reagan Hollywood on a dumbed down entertainment loving country.

[Gingergal]

7. But if they have Osam now, then it means that the Iraq

resistance is continuing without him. Like Hussein being grabbed and it not making one bit of difference to the Iraq guerrilla warfare.

[FlaGranny]

9. No it wouldn't make a difference, but

it would be enough to give * a boost that would last until the election.

[loudnclear]

25. And your point is exactly what the candidates should focus on.

It doesn't matter is Saddam or Osama is in custody. Unless and until the US changes its blind support of Sharon and the Likud (Israel), it will not make a bit of difference. PLUS, we now have all those innocent Arab and Muslim men, women, and children to answer for...their blood is on US hands, not Saddam's. For every Arab man we killed, there is an extended family of boys and girls who will grow up with the desire to avenge their brother, fathers, husbands.

[buycitgo]

8. I said that last week

that something would be "found" very close to the election.

close enough that, even after it was determined to be a plant, the election would already have happened

unfortunately, this 'discovery' would provide boost enough to make the election close enough to steal again

[politick]

11. I have a bet with a friend of mine

that one of the following things will occur in the quarter before the Election (AKA: "October Surprise"):

1) they find Saddam (ALREADY DONE)

2) they find Osama bin Laden

3) they find "WMD"; a secret stash of the ole Doomsday Device

4) another terrorist attack on US in which at least 50 people die

5) assassination attempt on George W. Bush

6) Ronald Reagan dies


NOTHING WILL SURPRISE ME with these MFs.

Also, I think it was Chuck Grassley last week who said he's "sure" they'll find Osama in the next couple months. I think he said by spring.

(edited for typos)

[belle]

13. Only a couple of those would make enough difference...

Reagan may well die, and it'll tie up the news, but it shouldn't make enough difference to Bush either way. As for finding WMD's in Iraq: it's too late. Way too late. It'll have been two YEARS. and the thing is: most people don't care one way or the other by now. that cuts both ways. It sucks that the "no WMD's" isn't getting much traction in the news; but the flip side is, if they *do* find them, what difference will it make?

Osama, well, yeah, that would be a big feather in their cap. If they find him. I'm not totally convinced they *do* have a bead on him. For one thing, I just don't think they have sufficient patience to wait it out any more if they really have him in a cell somewhere: Bush's numbers are bad, and the boost of "finding" him would be sufficient for him to ride all the way to November, I rather think; certainly they could milk the "trial" from now till then.

And if they don't actually have him but do know exactly where he is, I rather think it'll be a big old mess to dig him out; he's quite likely over the border in Pakistan, which would be a total fucking disaster if they decide to invade (which they've already made rumblings about). I could be wrong. I hope so.

assasination attempt--well, anything's possible. Hey, it worked for Bob Roberts. Something that blatant could backfire, though. First of all, he's more closely guarded than Fort Knox, so anyone getting through just feels really unlikely. (people make attempts all the time). And I seriously doubt George has the acting ability to pull off a faked injury a la Bob Roberts, and he certainly wouldn't risk his precious bodily fluids in an actual injury, a la Reagan. So it'd be cheap media thrills for a few weeks or so. If timed just right, (i.e. three days before the election) it *could* work, but inevitably that'll arouse suspicion, too. And if he survived an "attempt" and immediately started calling for something like martial law--suspended elections or whatever--well, that's going to look pretty fucking obvious, even to us in our current state. There'd be huge protests. People are not willing to give up their rights just so that George can feel safer. and okay, yeah, they could invent some nefarious Islamic terrorist as a fall guy or something, I can invent the plot as I type this. i dunno, though. I think there'd be a lot of backlash. As long as people don't feel *personally* threatened, as they would with a mass terror attack, I think that they'd be more pissed than scared.

Which leads to the biggie: terrorism on U.S. soil. Well, yeah, I sure as fuck hope not. I think more false-alarm scares are more likely at this point--they're cheaper and easier. I personally am not that convinced that they orchestrated 9/11 from start to finish, although I know others here are. If they *did*, then obviously doing it again seems more plausible. Assuming they are able and willing to orchestrate an entire terror attack here, that's the most plausible way I can think of them sufficiently cowing people into staying home from the polls, questioning authority, with or without actually going to martial law. But even that's risky at this point: he's banked a lot on "making America safer." If we're attacked here again it's pretty damn clear that he and his administration have done a piss-poor job of protecting us these past three years, no matter how they try to spin it. And if there's *any* proof or even strong suspicion of the timing of the event--if it really does look like they "made it happen on purpose"--people will be howling for his blood.

Anyway, I think it's a mistake to underestimate Bush and what he/they are capable of; but I also think it's a mistake to overestimate them. They're not evil geniuses. Evil, yes; geniuses, hardly. If there's one thing we've seen, it's that they have a very limited selection of plays in their playbook. We'll see, anyway.

[politick]

16. it's the viceral reaction

that they seem so good at rousing. That's not to say they aren't completely transparent, and that they have very many options in their playbook as you say. But I DO think they are geniuses. Not subtle or nuanced by any means, but media genuises. They know how to make a show, and maybe the USS Lincooln thing taught them a lesson: make it look real.

I'm not one of those people who can blame everything on Rove, or whoo believes these guys are pure evil, but I t hink they are drunk on power, they're inthe middle of an extended global plan, and they are not very willing to lose that grip so soon. they are radical right-wing idealogues, some of whom really believe they are doing the best thing for the country, and that makes them very dangerous, indeed. They are capable of anything.

I don't think an assassination attempt would be a little media blip. It would be huge. And the rest of the country isn't as paranoid as us DUers, and I doubt there would be much time to suspect -- in the media or elsewhere -- that it was a phony attempt.

A terrorist attack could be painted the same way as the attacks in Iraq: an attempt to fuck up the political system and scare us away from the very freedoms we hold dear, bla bla bla. Again, even if people suspect dirty tricks on BushCo's behalf, the vast majority do not WANT to believe we live in such a place.

[belle]

18. Well, what i'm most afraid of...

is that they'd be *stupid* and/or desperate enough to try something really outrageous. I do believe that long-term it *would* backfire, even if it gets them what they want in the short run. But a lot of people would get hurt in the process. It'd be just awful.

[mike1963]

37. But how about a 'miraculous PREVENTION' of a terist attack?

Late September to mid October, Orange Alert. Chatter, suspicious activity, all that stuff. Alla sudden some Iraqi-looking guys are arrested at the port of Norfolk (Seattle, Houston, New Orleans, Newark, take your pick) with a DIRTY BOMB. The 'bomb' is impounded for 'analysis'(which of course will take several months), the 'perpetrators' are shipped off to Gitmo and 30 point headlines atop all the papers scream "TERRORIST PLOT AVERTED!"

I will bet a grand against a cold cup of coffee the campaign ads for this scenario have already been proposed if not videotaped.

[Virginian]

19. #6 Reagan, #5 Attempt

#6 Reagan has lived longer than anyone I have ever known to have Altzimers(sp). I think they are waiting until the end of October to have his funeral.

#5 Up until Reagan every president elected in a year that ended with a zero has died in office. Bush was elected in a vote of 5 to 4 which ended the recount.

[buycitgo]

20. Could this result in a realworld MineshaftGap?

hahahahahahaha on that

first DVD I ever bought was Dr. Strangelove

[kskiska]

10. Dana's not the first to think that

Madeline Albright joked about it in the Green Room at Faux, and Kondracke repeated it as a serious remark. I guess time will tell.

[gold_bug]

12. finding a vial in Iraq

isn't going to be enough. I think it's gonna take more than that.

[buycitgo]

21. they already found that, anyway, in some guy's fridge

did somebody mention that already?

one vial of active botulinum, dismissed as having any value as making into a weapon of any sort

[uncle ray]

14. naw...

bush* is tanking too soon.

the "October Surprise" is going to be more like a June Surprise. he cannot wait until he hits rock bottom.

actually at the rate we're going, the surprises come so regularly, we might not even know when it comes! each surprise will be exponentially bigger than the last...the February surprise, the march surprise, the LATE march suprise....

[grasswire]

15. Milbank is Skull & Bones

I look at him more skeptically now that I know he's a Bonesman.

[buycitgo]

23. that's right!

is there a listing of living Bonsemen/women?

who else is out there in public eye?

most, if not all, will be in positions of power/influence, yes?

[Bozita]

29. I checked this ... You're correct ... Here's a link

Excerpt is from down near the end.

http://www.scoop.co.nz/mason/stories/HL0401/S00143.htm

-snip-

JUAN GONZALEZ: You mentioned that -- or the caller mentioned there were many journalists who were members of Skull and Bones. It would be interesting to perhaps keep track of the journalists who are, and how they're covering the current presidential race and analyze their coverage of both Kerry and Bush.

ALEXANDRA ROBBINS: There are a slew who are members of Skull and Bones, and some of them are biased. Some of them are not. Dana Milbank of the "Washington Post" is certainly not a biased journalist. He doesn't hold allegiance to his Skull and Bones connections, which is nice. There are others who follow their profession more than the society, but you will get people in Skull and Bones who favor Skull and Bones. That's the point of the group.

AMY GOODMAN: Who are the other reporters who are Skull and Bones?

ALEXANDRA ROBBINS: There's a list of them going back to Henry Lucent in New Haven. There are the founders of "Time" magazine. "Time" and "Newsweek" have Skull and Bones origins, which is kind of strange.

-snip-

more...

[Media_Lies_Daily]

22. The "surprise" may be martial law and the suspension of elections...

...until Ammurrika is safe from the tarrarists.

Of course, they would need some sort of excuse to declare martial law, wouldn't they? The only question in my mind is which coast, and which "libral-leanin' city".

[enki23]

24. good. poison that fucking well.

it's one well that truly needs poisoning. we all need to say this, as often as we can. the more we get it into the media, the better. even if it's only right-wing talk radio using it as an example of "leftist paranoia."

[shivaji]

26. My guess is Osama has been exchanged for pardoning Dr. Khan

Nothing happens in Pakistan of any significance that ISI
(Pakistan's version of CIA+FBI combined) does not know.

Khan who is a national hero in Pakistan and who was running
a Wal-Mart for nuclear bomb making equipment knowhow sale to
various countries has been let off the hook, and in turn
Pakistan will turn over Osama at the most "convenient" time.
If y'all recall Sheikh Mohammed who masterminded 911 was
handed over by ISI when Bush ratings were dropping badly.

[RainDog]

32. Ding, ding, ding!

I think you're right...and have the most credible rationale for the guess.

Yes, as DUers have known for a while, as Sy Hersh reported in The New Yorker, someone at the highest levels of our govt had to give the "stand down" order to our military when Al Qaeda was surrounded on three sides in the Tora Bora region in Afghanistan in November of 01.

Pakistan was allowed to fly out 5000 people. Members of the ISI who supported and support Al Q and the Taliban.

most likely Sheikh Mohammed was among them. he was supposedly killed in a firefight in Pakistan before they actually found him alive.

Osama could very well have been among those 5000. who knows.

I do know that Bush did not want to find Osama because then he would not have been able to justify the attack on Iraq.

I don't know how the Bush League keeps their hydra heads screwed on tightly with all the sides they play in Pakistan.

[RapidCreek]

34. Yep...that sounds quite logical

I think you have hit the nail on the head.

RC

[MurikanDemocrat]

27. I think it will be too little too late

[Dr Fate]

28. DEM candidates need to start openly "predicting" the same...

The DEM candidate should start saying: "Look, we have intelligence that suggests Bin Laden will be caught by Haloween..."

[DEM FAN]

30. Randi Rhodes Has Been Saying Something To That Effect For A While

Now. :shrug:

[Taeger]

31. Probably the same one ...

... Colin Powell was waving around at the UN!!!!

[RainDog]

33. kick n/t

[smirkymonkey]

36. Don't you think that if we hammer home

the probability of an "October Surprise" occurring, when and if it actually happens, everyone will know it is a Karl Rove special? Could we possibly repeat it often enought so that it would be a joke if they ever tried to pull it off?