Refine This Math

[ThomWV]

Ok, take a look at how many Democrats voted in your state's Primary in 2000. Then see how many vote(d) in this year's Primary in your state. If the number this year is greater than 2000 see what the difference is. Now compare that differenct to the winning margin, if Bush took your state.

As an example, lets say that 700,000 persons voted Democratic in the Florida Primary in 2000, but that 1,000,000 vote in the 2004 Primary. The difference is 300,000 additional Democratic voters. Bush took that state by 300 votes (or something like that). See where I'm going ....

So far, and don't forget, it hasn't been very far yet, the turnout in the Democratic Primarys has been outstanding. Bush is toast and I am pleased.

[Dookus]

1. Actually, you should compare to 1992

the last time there was really an open field in a Democratic primary.

[patriotvoice]

2. I'm collating now...

...please stand by. LexisNexis doesn't have the information. I'll have to find a 1992 Alamanc @ the library.

I also think that 1992 is a better model year, and I'm attempting to locate that data.

[patriotvoice]

3. Results

Alright, I have assembled a spreadsheet running the calculation described above. Obviously, the full figures are not all available:
1. I'm missing 1992 (I will have to do more research to locate)
2. Primaries aren't yet finished

You may download the spreadsheet from:
http://www.ideacode.com/~bishop/home/2004/election%20forecasting.xls

As you can see in the spreadsheet's summary tab, I'm making a forecast and recommendation that's reasonable (as far as game theory is concerned) about how to handle that state, assuming that the same number of Republican's and others vote. I think we can expect some attrition, but I suspect Republican's will be out in full force...

Use and distribute. The master document will remain on ideacode's servers until at least Election Day.

Stand your ground, THIS is what we are fighting for!
For our spirit and laws and ways!
Cry havoc and let slip the dogs of war,
for heaven or hell we shall not wait!
Shall I think of honour as lies
Or lament its aged and slow demise?
Shall I stand as a total stranger
On this day in this stone chamber?!? --VNV Nation