Unemployment numbers come out tomorrow

[zoidberg]

What's your prediction? I'm going to go with 6.2%. Applications for unemployment insurance are decreasing and inventories are decreases, both good signs for job growth.

June - 6.4%
May - 6.1%
April - 6.0%
March - 5.8%
February - 5.8%

[mhr]

1. What Planet Do You Live On?

Long term unemployed already reported today as increasing.

See the follwing DU thread:

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_topic&forum=102&topic_id=44660&mesg_id=44660

Personally I have been unemployed now for three years, a refuge from the Telecom and Aviation Industries.

[ameriphile]

2. Hey!

Why don't we start a futures market for unemployment speculation?

[German-Lefty]

5. Hehe, I've thought of that a bit - closing the circle

If a bunch of rich guys bet the rest of the market that employment would be good, they'd lobby the government to fix it. Think of it a bunch of Enron types could bet us we'd keep our jobs and then go pressure/bribe Washington to be smart.
:think:

Oh wait maybe they'd bet the other way and tear us a new butt hole. Don't know if that'd work.
:shrug:

I heard the pentagon just scrapped a futures market on terrorism. Boy if I ran a terrorist organization running low on cash, that would be something to get into.
:evilgrin:

[German-Lefty]

3. Hmm, I feel kind of bad saying this but....

I'm still for the conditions before the war started to come back. I've got some Euro saved up, and was planning on buy some stocks. Lately things have just been too optimistic, for my tastes.

If the stock market would just crash for a while and send the Euro back up to about $1.2, I would finally buy some stocks. I guess that means I'm hoping for about:

6.7% :evilgrin:

Oh yeah and it'll get Shrub out of office.

[PROGRESSIVE1]

4. 6.4%

Everything seems to pointing to show that the unemployment rate will be the same.

[poskonig]

6. I'm guessing 6.1% nt

eom

[DCDemo]

7. I'm betting high - 6.9%

A LOT of State gov jobs were lost at the end of June, and will now be showing up. A lot of teachers are out of jobs, they will now show up since they were still on the books for the previous fiscal year.

Its not looking good out there folks.

[PapaClay]

8. I am conflicted

I know that continued high unemployment will contribute to regime change and I desperately want that. At the same time, I got RIF'ed 7 months ago and after 33 years of continuous employment, I want my forced sabbatical to end soon. If not, I may have to scale back my bar tabs (shudder). :evilfrown:

[pbeal]

9. I am going to go with 6.2%

Bush was out acting all happy talking about how his tax cuts are createing jobs and the numbers from NC wont be in tomorrows number.

Of course if its 6.5 or higher hopefuly it will wake some people up.

[HFishbine]

10. 6.9%

Don't forget to send me my prize when I win.

[phillybri]

11. 6.6%

I'm in North Carolina, and a company here called Pillowtex just went out of business. 5,500 jobs down the shitter. Largest loss of jobs in NC history....

[EAMcClure]

12. Don't forget how unemployment is calculated

The more that state unemployment operates in the red, the more people who are unemployed will not be on the dole... and not be counted in the index. If unemployment actually goes down, by the number of jobless rises, this is even WORSE... of course, that isn't the part of the story we the people get to hear.

Eric

[zoidberg]

13. That is NOT how it is calculated

Third time in 24 hours I've posted this...

http://www.bls.gov/cps/cps_faq.htm#Ques2
Because unemployment insurance records, which many people think are the source of total unemployment data, relate only to persons who have applied for such benefits, and since it is impractical to actually count every unemployed person each month, the Government conducts a monthly sample survey called the Current Population Survey (CPS) to measure the extent of unemployment in the country. The CPS has been conducted in the United States every month since 1940 when it began as a Work Projects Administration project. It has been expanded and modified several times since then. As explained later, the CPS estimates, beginning in 1994, reflect the results of a major redesign of the survey.

[zoidberg]

14. I'll take my prize now!

What do I win? :)

[pbeal]

15. I said 6.2% as well well hive to split

a big steaming cup of nothing