January Job Creation

[tritsofme]

I was just looking over which economic reports come out in the next week, and on Friday we get January non-farm payrolls and the UE rate.

I couldn't help but notice the "consensus" of economists is that we created 180,000 jobs in Jan. I don't know if its just me, but for the past two months they have bet extremely high, and come way short.

For November I think they were shooting for 150k, and they got 50K.

And of course we all remember December where they made the big bet of about 150K again, and we got a whopping 1,000!

Now what would make these "economists" who have been so horribly wrong the past few months, bet so high again? Wouldn't it make sense after a few disappointing months to make a moderate bet?

Maybe its just me, but I don't remember January being a particularly good month in terms of job creation. It seems to me that these people have their stuck quite far into where the sun don't shine and its not coming out anytime soon.

*edited to say 600 posts woohoo*

[lcordero]

1. If only 1,000 jobs were created in December

and that's because of the holiday season. Then we lost jobs because those jobs are for the holiday season only. That 150k figure will be revised down a few times and I'll bet that it'll get revised down into the negatives.

[Beetwasher]

2. All I Know Is I Noticed An Innordinate Amount of Mass Layoffs

There were lot's of big layoff announcements this past month...

[tritsofme]

3. Initial claims have been pretty low,

but I still don't see how a healthy amount of jobs could be created after a few months of anemic growth.

I just don't think companies are hiring.

[madrchsod]

4. some plants around here

are hiring or more precise re-hiring laid -off workers or filling jobs that a worker retired.ect ,etc. there are no new factories being built or moving into empty buildings. there has to be alot of job creation to get back 3 million jobs. i`ve come to the conculsion that at my age i`ll never make the same money i did several yrs ago. i will be lucky to find a job and find one that pays half of what i made. there`s alot of men and women just like me out there and the only one who will hire us are those who don`t have decent medical benefits-box stores,food servers,and such.bush`s america- the older worker cost to much.

[Kathy in Cambridge]

5. But EACH WEEK over 300,000 applied for first-time unemployment benefits

So, they would have to crate a hell of a lot of jobs to make up that deficit...

[tritsofme]

6. Anything under 400,000 signals the job market is "stable" or "stabilizing"

And where we are right now (about 340,000) is fairly healthy by historic standards.

And remember when the jobs numbers come out it is the net amount jobs created or lost.

[tritsofme]

7. kick

[Bush_Unemployed_04]

8. The rate will continue to drop....

People are losing hope as well as their benefits...
Once they lose their benefits, they 'disappear' from the count...

Wouldn't be surprised to see the unemployment rate drop...since
thousands are losing their benefits and Congress won't extend them
because things are getting 'better' .....

:puke:

[tritsofme]

11. Nope UE rate is basically calculated by a giant telephone survey

It has gone down in recent months however because workers have become "discouraged" with the job hunt, so they are no longer counted as part of the workforce, and no longer factored in the UE rate. Your benefits can run out, and if you are still looking for work, you're counted.

[newyawker99]

12. Hi Bush_Unemployed_04!!

Welcome to DU!! :toast:

[Nikia]

9. A few places are adding positions in my area

Unfortunately these jobs either pay $8/hour or require very specific experience. Some people with those specific skills are benefitting though. I suppose that desperate people are benefitting from the $8/hour jobs.

[Zero Gravitas]

10. what kind of jobs are they

if we loose 300,000 jobs at an average of 50k/yr each and 100,000 new ones are created but at an average of 25k/yr it is even worse than the numbers indicate. We never hear about the type of jobs being created just the raw numbers.

If you're one of the 3 million who lost their job since Bush was appointed president, even if you do get a new job you stil won't be happy if you're making a fraction of what you did before.