3. I think it's trending every so slightly to the Democrat
That negative bounce that Bush got from the SOTU speech is almost unprecedented and speaks loudly about the mindset of the nation as a whole. However, you can never discount the ability of the Rove machine to fold, spindle and mutilate reality between now and November. But I see us taking more 2000 Republican territory than they can take from our's.
This election is Bush's to lose. When Bush must justify his going to war ten months after the fact, then he has a huge problem. He is on the defensive in this case. Pair that with a shower of bad press about a non-existent recovery, the workforce hemorraging jobs and an empty government-sponsored job training (training for what???) program and you'll see Bush cowering under the cover of his bigot base. "Gay rights? Who needs 'em?" - Bush will say. This is his campaign plank because he has nothing left.
7. never underestimate the BFEE and its friends . . .
I foresee a major crisis of some kind sometime between the Republican convention and election day . . . I foresee an announcement that bin Laden has been captured or killed sometime this year . . . I foresee several states where the recorded votes are greatly at odds with the exit polls (if there ARE exit polls), and to Bush's advantage . . . with the kinds of things an unethical and amoral fundamentalist incumbent can do, it's not so much ours to lose as it is theirs to steal . . . imo . . .
... a very tough election to win. I'm incredulous at how people think. I noticed the Newsweek poll showed something like 49% of the people think Iraq was DIRECTLY involved in 9/11.
Getting votes is one thing -- un-brainwashing the public is another.
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