How far off do the Pollsters need to be before we realize they are

[randr]

a worthless obstruction to our Democracy?
The medias' obsession with the "numbers" creates a smoke screen smothering the openness of debate. Once again, as was evident last night in Iowa, these camp dogs have made off with their scraps without having contributed a shred of anything worthwhile to the political process. Fortunately the good people of Iowa had the sense to listen to the candidates and return with their best assessment.

[DrBB]

1. Hadn't quite figured out

...how to address this issue myself, but this is a necessary topic to bring up.

Dean is still my #2 choice, so I hope it won't be taken as Dean bashing, but....

Remember about six-eight weeks ago a number of people were recommending that Dems unite behind the front-runner? Ted Rall was prominent in that, though Gore implied it with his endorsement and not a few DUers took up the call.

The idea was well-intentioned, on the whole. Everyone knows that non-incumbent presidential candidates always have this problem that they go into the main battle already having been wounded by the other guys in their own party.

Like I say, good theory, but at the time I posted a number of messages saying I didn't like the idea of having my candidate selected for me on the basis of poll results and fund-raising reports. I think last night's result was yet another torpedo into the relevance of polls, at least that far out from the election.

And most pertinent of all in this regard: the irrelevance of polls predicting outcomes between Bush and various candidates (or unnamed Dem) in November, yes?

[salinen]

2. Don't be dissing Frank Luntz

He's been a little workhorse for the RW.

[Terwilliger]

3. Yeah, wasn't Dean doing REALLY well just before the caucus?

So, who got those polls wrong??

OnEdit: primary -> caucus

[OHdem10]

4. Do you really believe this--

It is because of the polls tat voers voted the way they did. Pool
have been and continue to be used to frame formulate and color
public oppinion. Each night as they reported Kerry was going up in the polls just as expected he got more votes. The Media knows people to want to go with a winner.

Good example. When ClyburnSCDem said he would endorse Gephardt he was on all the staions saying first Gephardt will have to win Iowa.
The people will go with the winner--I cannot influence them if he does not do well in Iowa. It was believed he could deliver Gephardt the majoity Black vote in SC. While I believe the polls may not be accurate, i do believe they inluence people greatly. Iowa proves it.
Average people do not want to be kidded about voting for a loser.

[randr]

5. I believe a very small number of people

will vote because of what a poll indicates. I believe most people vote their conscience. This is why the polls are always so far off.

[Dr.Phool]

7. The only poll I want to see

Is the day after the election.

Whatever Democrat 75%
Bush 25%:toast:

Under a headline that says

Republicans Routed!!!!!:nuke:


:wtf:

:kick:

[Sticky]

6. From The Campaign Desk.org

Spin Reducer
"Oops -- There ARE More Than Two Candidates"
The cover-your-butt reporting has begun even before the results of the Iowa caucuses are in. As recently as a week ago, when Gov. Howard Dean and Rep. Dick Gephardt looked to most reporters like the clear front-runners in Iowa, much of the campaign press seemed to have forgotten about even covering Sen. John Kerry and Sen. John Edwards. Now, shocked out of their complacency by recent polls showing a four-way log-jam at the top -- and particularly by a Des Moines Register survey released yesterday that showed Kerry leading and Edwards in second -- reporters are scrambling to make amends.

MORE:
http://www.cjr.org/blog/archives/cat_spin_reducer.asp#000032

>>>>

Looks like all the media are doing the same thing when it comes to calling races. Maybe they've learned a little something after last night.

[tom_paine]

8. As far off as Soviet pollsters, Ferd Marcos' Pollsters

And even then I am not certain the Imperial Subjects of Amerika will be able to break out of their comforting denial.