WP,pg1: Was Nov. 2 Realignment -- Or a Tilt?

[DeepModem Mom]

Was Nov. 2 Realignment -- Or a Tilt?
Political Parties Look for Answers

By John F. Harris
Washington Post Staff Writer
Sunday, November 28, 2004; Page A01


By any measure, President Bush and his fellow Republicans had a good night on Nov. 2. The question now is whether the election results set the GOP up for a good decade -- or more....

***

The post-election realignment debate is in some ways an echo of the debate among political analysts during the campaign about whether independent-minded "swing voters" still hold the key to electoral success, or whether politics has entered a new phase that places a greater premium on "the base" -- building party loyalty, and ensuring that these activists vote in higher percentages than the opposition loyalists. Bush and Mehlman pursued a strategy that put an emphasis on expanding the base, and it paid off.

This election was the first in which exit polls showed equal numbers of self-identified Republicans and Democrats -- both at 37 percent -- erasing what had been a decades-long advantage for Democrats, 4 percent in 2000. In addition to the House and Senate gains, Bush received a higher raw vote total than any candidate in history (Kerry's total was second highest) and was the first presidential candidate to break the 50 percent barrier since 1988. On a percentage basis, he improved on his 2000 performance in 48 states.

Most significantly, in the view of people who suspect a realignment, exit polls showed Bush cutting into Democratic advantages with some historically Democratic groups -- especially Hispanics, who gave Bush 42 percent of their votes, compared with 35 percent in 2000.

However, Sen. John F. Kerry (Mass.) was able to stay competitive by increasing Democratic voter turnout. And exit polls showed that self -identified independents favored the Democrat -- by dramatic margins in some of the most important battleground states. In Florida and Ohio, for instance, Kerry won independents by 18 points and 19 points, respectively....


http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/articles/A16756-2004Nov27.html

[Tandalayo_Scheisskopf]

1. Any substantive tilts...

Ones that will matter to us in any election cycle, will have to be accompanied by starting to create our own media structure, one that is compelling. Said structure saw its beginnings in this election cycle when the bloggers became a real and substantive force. These are our new Broders, Safires and more. They write with real force and earn the estimation they receive.

The online world grows. It cannot be denied or dismissed. More and more, people turn to online sources for their information.

It is now time for the left to develop an online news operation, with commentary, that rival the scope and gravitas of the NYT and WP. One that is known for not being fearful of the hard truths, as the dead-tree organs have become. This operation could attract those print refugees who have had a gutful of what they have seen under the Raines and Downies and give them a place to practice their true craft.

Yes, it would be ambitious. Yes, it would need enourmous infrastructure. Yes, it would need money. That all said, it would also become a rather estimable force in these times. Very quickly, I predict.

Are there any progressive entrpreneurs out there, with both money and balls, who grok these potentials? Don't ask me. I haven't a clue.

But it makes for nice fantasies on rainy Sunday mornings.

[DeepModem Mom]

3. Excellent post, TS!

nt

[Tandalayo_Scheisskopf]

4. To know how truly moribund...

Print media has become, you need only know this:

Josh Marshall does not have a syndicated dead-tree column. In any other time, he would, and be a rising star. But Joshua Goldberg does.

That is how broken things are.

[cornermouse]

2. Before you get carried away with this analysis

"However, Sen. John F. Kerry (Mass.) was able to stay competitive by increasing Democratic voter turnout. And exit polls showed that self -identified independents favored the Democrat -- by dramatic margins in some of the most important battleground states. In Florida and Ohio, for instance, Kerry won independents by 18 points and 19 points, respectively...."

Black box voting with lack of a paper trail, the lack of a much disliked George Bush in the next election, the perception/knowledge that votes were suppressed or not counted are serious issues for the democrats as far as getting out the vote in the next election.

[The Zanti Regent]

5. suck suck suck goes the WHORESHINGTON POST

Right out of Naked Lunch...all the presstitutes at this propaganda rag are feasting off the Mugwumps...

[Bono71]

6. What's wrong with the Post? I find their coverage to

be fairly balanced. Especially when compared to the Washington Times.

[GOPFighter]

8. I agree

I read the Post almost every day and their news reporters have ripped the Bush administration on many, many occasions which takes guts considering the Bush administration's record of retaliation. On the other hand, the Post's editorial board does lean to the right IMO.

[DeepModem Mom]

9. Welcome to DU, Bono71!

[newyawker99]

10. Hi Bono71!!

Welcome to DU!! :toast:

[The Zanti Regent]

11. Read the Daily Howler

Bob Somerby documents the right wing whoring of the WHORESHINGTON POST and the SCREW YORK TIMES!

http://www.dailyhowler.com

[GOPFighter]

7. It wasn't even a tilt, it was a naked use of fear

I agree with Larry M. Bartels of Princeton University who was quoted in the article: "Bush's victory was less likely to have been evidence of a new realignment than the "last gasp" of an old one that long ago sent the South and culturally conservative whites into the GOP column."

We have little to worry about in the long run, folks. George Bush is an idiot. He had a golden opportunity to make the Republican Party the dominant party for years to come right after 9/11. He had the strong support of over 90% of Americans when his administration correctly targeted the Taliban as the enemy and invaded Afghanistan. If he had focused on that war, caught Osama bin Laden and then worked in a bipartisan way to pass moderate tax cuts and craft a truly compassionate conservative agenda, the Democratic Party would be in serious trouble today, and George Bush might have gone down in history as one of the greats! This was one of those rarest of rare opportunities that few Presidents have ever been given and Bush turned his back on it. He blew it. Instead, he pursued an agenda that most Americans will eventually reject. Bush managed to use the lingering fear created by 9/11 and an appeal to Americans baser instincts (bigotry) to eke out a victory in 2004.

Their run is just about over. The Republican Party's "negatives" are high and growing. I haven't seen liberal and moderate Democrats so fired up since the Nixon years. Remember, folks, it has taken the extreme RW over 20 years to get where they are at today. We're just getting started.