From the London Observer
(Sunday supplement of the Guardian
Unlimited
Dated Sunday October 31
The winner is... US conservatism
The Democrats face an awesome task in Tuesday's elections but, for the country's good, they must win
By Will Hutton
The real puzzle in next Tuesday's presidential election is why George W Bush is not going to get hammered. Tens of millions of ordinary Americans live in more economic insecurity and enjoy less opportunity as a result of the America he is building. Abroad he is leading his country into a dangerous and unwinnable confrontation with Islamic fundamentalism that obstructs the rooting out of terrorism, whose crassness is exposed daily in the flow of news from Iraq. A grass roots revolt should throw him out of office as an incompetent.
And yet most polls give him the lead over challenger John Kerry by a narrow margin. The incumbency effect is part of the explanation, as is the skill with which Bush has played the security card. But the deeper truth is that conservative America has become a formidable cultural and electoral force - and it offers its allegiance to George Bush instinctively and unhesitatingly.
Even if Kerry manages to win, American conservatism will remain the most dynamic component in American political life. Although a Kerry victory (for which I hope) is conceivable, it is already clear that the race is so tight that the Republicans will retain their grip on the House of Representatives - with little prospect of an early reversal. Talk to Republicans and they regard their control of the House together with more state legislatures as the heart of their power base; in the checked and balanced US political system the presidency is the necessary but insufficient condition for political leadership.
In short, a Kerry victory would only be the end of the beginning; for the Democrats to move the US even marginally from its current hardening right-wing trajectory, the long-term task is the rebuilding and sustaining of the liberal coalition that they held from Roosevelt's New Deal to the end of the 1960s - and which will allow them to challenge what is now a Republican legislative dominance. That requires not just political energy and a mobilisation on the ground that the Democrats have only just begun to demonstrate - it also means winning the battle of ideas, where they are still at first base.
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