US to Lose Second Place in World Trade to India: Citi

[OhioChick]

Thursday, 23 Jun 2011

In less than 40 years India will overtake the US as the world’s second-largest trading nation, pushing today's superpower into third place and Europe in to the little leagues, according to a new report by Citi.

“According to our projections, world trade in goods and services will grow from $37 trillion in 2010 to $149 trillion in 2030 and $371 trillion in 2050,” Citigroup’s William Buiter and Ebrahim Rahbari wrote in a research note released on Thursday.

“But at least as interesting as the growth in world trade that we forecast are the changes in its composition that we expect over the course of the next four decades, with today's emerging markets set to gain much more prominence in world trade relative to advanced economies,” they added.

The report predicts that trade between emerging markets will overtake that between advanced economies in just four years in a clear sign that the world’s major economies of Europe and North America are set to lose relative importance to the global economy.

More: http://www.cnbc.com/id/43506564

[xchrom]

1. recommend

[midnight]

2. Nafta, Cafta, brings change...

[bahrbearian]

3. At least now we get our delicious Indian Mango's

[OhioChick]

5. That was "nukes for mangoes!"

:D

[Vehl]

4. When the Brits came to India, It had 25% of the world GDP, when they left, less than 4%

Thanks to their wholesale robbery of the subcontinent.






While predictions 40 years into the future(as if one can really put any faith on such predictions when the housing bubble was not predicted is another story altogether) might make this prediction that India, becoming the second largest economy in the world a surprising notion, for those who are aware of the histories of nations like India and China, this does not come as a surprise.

For example, India and China made up about 60% of the world GDP (around 30% each, +/- few percentage points) for nearly 1700 years of the past 2000 years. This all changed in the 1700s, with the advent of European colonialism. The graphs above clearly show how Colonial rule led to a direct and drastic decline in the GDP's of India and China..India in particular, as the British outlawed local manufacturing, took the factories to England, and made India into a land of raw materiel (cotton and Opium...btw the British policy of forcing local farmers to grow opium instead of Wheat(so they could make a killing selling Opium to China) resulted in untold Millions of deaths due to famine in India during British rule.) and end-product consumers for the British mills.

India, and China becoming considerably large economies in the future is but the reversion of the historical status-quo that existed for the vast majority of the last 2000 years. Some historians posit that the past few centuries might be looked back upon as a historical anomaly rather than the norm when historians in the future look at human history.


Here is an excellent DU thread on the Famines Caused by the Colonial rule, both under the East India company, and the later Crown rule.
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=102x4534351

[johnroshan]

6. Don't you think with a billion population, India should ideally

trade more than US? Or do you like seeing US at the top of everything even at the cost of other countries suffering deficits?

Every country strives to get the best deal for its citizens, but let it not be at the expense of other countries(I don't know if that is even possible). In the India-US case, the responsibility lies on both sides. Both have manipulated the other to get its way.