Kaine, Allen tied in 2012 Senate matchup, Post poll shows

[dtotire]

Kaine, Allen tied in 2012 Senate matchup, Post poll shows


By Ben Pershing and Peyton M. Craighill, Published: May 7

George Allen and Timothy M. Kaine are locked in a dead heat 18 months from Election Day, according to a new Washington Post poll, suggesting that the U.S. Senate race between the Virginia titans may live up to its billing as one of the most competitive contests in the nation.

The candidates are tied at 46 percent among registered voters in the battle to succeed retiring Sen. James Webb (D). Neither Allen (R) nor Kaine (D) is guaranteed his party’s nomination, but the survey shows that both men enjoy huge leads over potential intraparty opponents.

The 2012 contest will play out in a state that has changed dramatically in recent years. Kaine — the former governor and Democratic National Committee chairman — draws strong support in portions of Northern Virginia, which has rapidly gained population, wealth and political clout. Allen, the ex-governor and senator, remains stronger in the rest of the state.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/local/politics/kaine-allen-tied-in-2012-senate-matchup-post-poll-shows/2011/05/06/AFtqUoLG_story.html?hpid=z2

[DFW]

1. "Been away so long I hardly knew the place...."

I was born and grew up in northern Virginia. It might as well be a separate country, as far as the rest of the
state is concerned. When I left in the sixties, it was slightly suburban-ish, with a LOT of rural areas close
to the Washington suburbs.

These days, northern Virginia is a huge sprawling swath of housing, light manufacturing, and government agencies
that just won't fit within the confines of DC proper. One rarely hears the drawl of southern Virginia in the
beltway any more. A hundred different other accents can be heard, many not native to North America, many from
other parts of our country. Northern Virginia has its share of righist extremists, of course, as the fancy
living (and the costs) of some parts of NoVa attracts money of the unsavory kind as well as the yuppie kind,
especially when K street is but a few metro stops (or a short chauffered limousine ride) away.

Still, the three-store "centers" and the tiny private airstrip at Bailey's Crossroads have given way to huge
complexes like Tyson's Corner and monster apartment complexes that house academics and government employees.
The old-money mansions out in Great Falls are still there, but a 10 acre spread doesn't house a lot of voters.
A big yuppie apartment complex can house a LOT of Democrats. The question is whether the NoVa population mass
can compensate for the crackers down in Roanoke and in Richmond, neither of which have 100% Republican voters
any more than NoVa has exclusively Democratic voters. The swing that will win or lose it for Kaine is whether
he bothers to court the large black population in the south and gets them out to vote on election day. The
rest of the State has pretty much decided how they will vote already. Obama could do Kaine a world of good by
spending some serious time in the state, and Kaine himself could do himself a world of good by paying some
attention to black leaders in Norfolk, Newport News, Richmond, and Roanoke, as well as the academic community
around Charlottesville. This is not political rocket science, so Macaca's camp knows this too. Look for some
hard-core attempts on the part of Virginia Republicans to disallow black voters all across the state. If they
can do that, it's Senator Macaca again. If not, and Kaine gets on this issue EARLY and doesn't let up, it's
Senator Kaine (with Obama's help).