A business perspective on the world's latest crises.
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http://www.businessinsider.com/five-upsides-to-global-turmoil-2011-3#ixzz1H56wskss...
So far, 2011 has been a year of unforeseen shocks and frayed nerves. Uprisings in the Middle East caught investors by surprise and rattled the oil markets, just as the global economy seemed to be getting back on its feet following the Great Recession. Then the Japanese earthquake and tsunami derailed the world's third-largest economy. And scary headlines about the unthinkable disaster at Japan's Fukushima nuclear facility have been a stunning reminder that things can still go terribly wrong.
As long as the Japanese disaster doesn't get much worse and manufacturers adjust to supply-chain disruptions, the economic shock ought to stay mostly contained in Japan. A huge rebuilding effort may even boost Japan's economy later this year and next, offsetting some of the damage. It's a similar story in the Middle East, where uprisings in Egypt, Libya, Bahrain, and other nations may transform the region, but leave global markets more or less intact. There may even be some opportunities that emerge from all the turmoil. Here are a few possible upsides to the unnerving events that have occurred so far in 2011:
A stock-market stress test. The twin shocks of Middle East unrest and the calamity in Japan have given skittish stock investors plenty of reason to head for the exits. But for the most part, they haven't—and that could signal enduring faith in the economic recovery. ...(more)
More stable oil prices. The direction of oil prices is notoriously hard to predict, but the sobering news from Japan may have tempered speculative fervor that was starting to generate an oil bubble similar to the one in 2008. ... (more)
Market share gains for U.S. automakers. As industrial disruption persists in Japan, it seems certain that Japanese automakers will experience some vehicle shortages on their home turf and in other markets as well. ... (more)
A boost for American energy producers. The first three months of 2011 have raised fresh worries about two of the world's prominent sources of power: oil and nuclear energy. That will boost the prospects for natural gas, which unlike oil, the United States has in abundance. If oil prices remain elevated and nuclear power suddenly seems like a risky alternative, that could also increase the appeal of solar, wind, and other "green" forms of energy that are environmentally friendly but, up till now, economically dubious. ... (more)
Downward pressure on interest rates. Some analysts have worried that Japan, which is the second-largest foreign holder of debt issued by the U.S. government, would cash in many of those securities to help pay for rebuilding. Theoretically, that could flood the market with Treasury securities and drive up long-term interest rates, which would make mortgages more costly and also raise Washington's borrowing costs. But so far, the opposite has happened. ... (more)
Downward pressure on interest rates. Some analysts have worried that Japan, which is the second-largest foreign holder of debt issued by the U.S. government, would cash in many of those securities to help pay for rebuilding. Theoretically, that could flood the market with Treasury securities and drive up long-term interest rates, which would make mortgages more costly and also raise Washington's borrowing costs. But so far, the opposite has happened.
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