Don't be blinded by the web. The world is actually stagnating

[Demeter]

http://www.guardian.co.uk/business/2011/feb/13/will-hutton-innovation-must-be-encouraged

My grandfather grew up in the 1900s in a world of horse-drawn carts and candle-lit houses. In the following 50 years he would live through a series of astonishing transformations – electricity, the motor car, television and radio, the telephone, the refrigerator, the vacuum-cleaner, penicillin and the aeroplane, just to name a few. It was not just these things that made the 20th century what it was. Their production was industrialised. They created huge employment and wealth.

I grew up in the 1960s and have experienced no such parallel transformations. Certainly, over the past 15 years, the mobile phone and internet have changed the way we all communicate. But the world of the early 2010s is recognisably the same as the early 1960s. The technologies have all incrementally advanced but the artefacts of, say, Mad Men are essentially the same, whereas those in, say, Downton Abbey are not. We live broadly as we did 50 years ago...

-------------------------------------------------------------


I TAKE ISSUE WITH THIS AUTHOR. IN MEDICINE ALONE, SCIENCE HAS BROUGHT TO HEALING SUCH CHANGES THAT COULDN'T EVEN BE IMAGINED, EXCEPT IN SCIENCE FICTION.

AND THIS CENTURY MIGHT SEE THE GREATEST CHANGES IN SOCIETY AND ECONOMICS AND POLITICS, FIELDS OVERDUE FOR REVOLUTION.

[stevedeshazer]

1. OKAY THEN

:)

[HereSince1628]

2. Things do change. In the 1960's I had irritable bowel syndrome.

Nearly fifty years later, I am irritable ALL OVER!

Don't give any shit about things staying the same. I've got plenty o shit to spare.

[grasswire]

3. very interesting article and comments

One thing I have observed recently is that the explosion of web-based entrepreneurial ventures don't seem to have any money connected to them. Especially in social media. Uncounted thousands of small businesses and sole proprieters are trying to make money off social media, but it just ain't changing hands. They are undoubtedly people who have lost real-life jobs as web designers, marketers, IT, whatever. Now trying to start up something on a platform that looks shiny and new. It's rough out there.

[Mojorabbit]

4. Hubby and I were agreeing with you Demeter

in a discussion just last week. We are in our mid 50's and amazed at the changes we have seen since we were kids.

Just the fact that I can look up information at a moment's notice online where in my youth I would have had to use an outdated encyclopedia or go to the library is as miracle. Microwave ovens, ipods filled with thousands of songs, gps systems, cable tv, color tv, cds, dvds, cat scans, MRIs, mapping the human geome,man on the moon, and I could go on and on.

I thought by now we might have made more progress on solar power modes of transportation and even space travel but I think wonderful progress is being made in general.

[leveymg]

5. That is quite true in many ways. One can barely tell the difference between jets today and 50 yrs

ago. Cars and buildings are still essentially as they were, at least in the U.S. The technology of broadcast TV hasn't changed, much. Clothes are the same, but shoddier. Medicine is an area where there have been great strides - but, if you aren't sick, that doesn't count for much.

The last half century has been a time of stagnation - while there have been advances for minorities, in many ways we've moved backwards in social policy, particularly taxation and welfare economics.

We're certainly ripe for revolutions of politics, social organization, and consciousness, as well as technology.

[ChairmanAgnostic]

9. absolutely untrue

[leveymg]

10. Is that all you have to say about that?

[ChairmanAgnostic]

15. the truth's so obvious it is not worthy of wasting electrons

[Demeter]

13. Washing Machines Haven't Changed in 50 Years--So What?

If it ain't broken, why fix it? The "evolution" of technology doesn't always mean replace an old design with a new one, especially if the old design is sufficiently profitable and problem-free.

Well, there's a lot more plastic in modern washing machines than the old ones, but the design is unchanged since the wringer went out and the spin cycle came in....

And airplanes have changed--in the military. The commercial planes do not become safer, cheaper, or easier to use by going all high-tech. But the controls on the airplanes are much more advanced....

Housing today (if you want to) is much better than what was built in the 30's--if the new designs and materials are used. That is the essence of passive solar, green buildings. No reason except price why shopping malls and office parks aren't more green and energy-efficient. Economics plays a role in determining which changes are adapted, and which stay in the idea-form.


Actually, washing machines in the US ARE changing--the designs in use in Europe (energy and water conserving) for 50 years are now finally coming to this shore....

[LastLiberal in PalmSprings]

18. Apples and oranges

Technological progress vs. social progress. An Aerospatial A380 is to the Boeing 707 as an eagle is to a wren. Both have wings and can fly, but the difference is significant. Same with the airplanes: the A380 carries more people, uses less fuel and makes less noise. Oh, and did you notice that the 787 in the picture can fly with two engines instead of four?

Just because you don't use a technology doesn't mean it hasn't happened. Hopefully I won't need a heart or lung or liver transplant, but the advancements in those and other technological matters have been exponential. I had an artificial hip implanted using a new technique that allowed me to walk unassisted with almost no pain just a few hours after the operation.

Do you watch the TV weather? The information comes from weather satellites that are 100x more powerful than the earliest models. How about watching an event such as the Egyptian revolution in real time? Not available in 1950. In fact, it would have been impossible to coordinate a peaceful protest of that size in 1950. Think of how the civil rights movement would have been had the rest of the world been able to see what was happening in Selma in real time.

Social advances are harder to measure, especially when you have such an evil force which is fighting tooth and nail to keep them from happening or reversing those advances that have been made. Witness the Republican Party, CPAC and the Koch brothers. They have more weapons in their quiver than we do -- they own the media, both houses of congress, the judiciary and presidency, and when worse comes to worse they can even cause wars to happen.

I lived in Montgomery, Alabama, in the mid-1960s. Moving there from Alaska, I was shocked to see water fountains and bathrooms labeled "white" and "colored." It's not that way anymore. When I began flying in the Air Force there were no women pilots. By the end of my career there was a significant percentage of women pilots (and astronauts), many who were flight instructors or flight examiners. Same with the airlines. We just don't notice or care anymore. It's not an issue for most people.

I agree that our personal financial well-being has gone backward over the last 30 years, thanks to the people who put Saint Ronnie in the White House. I agree that our public school education has diminished in quality -- but I think that's because the same people who say "children are our future" are the same ones who would rather spend $30,000 on a new RV than a few thousand on property taxes each year to make the schools better, and would rather spend the night in front of their 60" flat screen television watching "American Idol" than taking part in the PTA.

Socially we have entered the Orwellian world of "war is peace, lies are truth" and recently the Ayn Rand fantasy of the man who needs no other men (let him build his own car, then). BTW, when Ayn Rand (not her real name) became sick in her senior years she signed up for Social Security and Medicare.

At 61 I am still amazed by our technological achievements, and hopeful about our future society. As the Egyptian people proved, there is a point where the citizenry says, "Enough!" and not only demands but causes change. They're entering a new world -- I imagine it feels like a puppy who had been raised in a kennel being suddenly released into the world -- there's both wonder, and hope, and fear. But in the end it's their choice.

When enough Americans get tired of taking their shoes off at the airport and watching the rich live in opulence while they see their jobs being sent overseas they will say, "Enough!" The Teabaggers have started it, but they are, as we said in the Air Force, "all Mach and no compass heading." The 2008 election proved that the energy is there, and we honestly thought that Obama was providing the direction. And while he has accomplished a lot, there is a lack of quality of the accomplishments. Repealing DADT doesn't replace not even attempting to achieve universal health care. Getting a Nobel Peace Prize means little if Guantanamo is still open, and our presence in Iraq and Afghanistan continues, a wound which is especially sore when the money could be used to create jobs and care for the poor and infirm in our own country. These are the social changes I agree I would like to see occur during my lifetime. The end of the Cold War was supposed to result in a "peace dividend" -- or so the Republicans kept promising as they cut social programs in the 60's, 70's and 80's. We see how that has gone.

Will we have our own Egypt moment in this country during my lifetime? I hope so, but I don't see it happening yet. Obama rode into office on a wave that could have turned into a tsunami, but he let the Republicans suck all the energy out of it in the first eight months. Saying that his previous supporters will vote for his re-election because "look at the alternative" just doesn't cut it. "VOTE OBAMA BECAUSE THE ALTERNATIVE IS WORSE!" makes a lousy campaign slogan.

I believe in the power of one person or a small group of people to change the course of history, though, and await another Martin Luther King, Jr., or John Kennedy to help us channel our energy.

I also believe that I can be the change I desire.

[leveymg]

20. Point by point, we agree to disgree. But, I think we mostly agree:

Technological progress vs. social progress. An Aerospatial A380 is to the Boeing 707 as an eagle is to a wren. Both have wings and can fly, but the difference is significant. Same with the airplanes: the A380 carries more people, uses less fuel and makes less noise. Oh, and did you notice that the 787 in the picture can fly with two engines instead of four?

The B787 and A380 are scarcely a revolution in aviation. The Boeing 747 entered commercial service in 1974 -- that 36 years ago -- yet, they are virtually identical. The 787 is well, also shockingly familiar. And, as for the merits of two engines versus four, I'd rather lose one engine in a 707 on takeoff than a 787, any day. Is that progress?

Just because you don't use a technology doesn't mean it hasn't happened. Hopefully I won't need a heart or lung or liver transplant, but the advancements in those and other technological matters have been exponential. I had an artificial hip implanted using a new technique that allowed me to walk unassisted with almost no pain just a few hours after the operation.

I acknowledged the advances in bio-sciences and medicine. But, my point remains unchanged and unchallenged.

Do you watch the TV weather? The information comes from weather satellites that are 100x more powerful than the earliest models. How about watching an event such as the Egyptian revolution in real time? Not available in 1950. In fact, it would have been impossible to coordinate a peaceful protest of that size in 1950. Think of how the civil rights movement would have been had the rest of the world been able to see what was happening in Selma in real time. New generation weather satellites and forecasting did nothing to help the people of New Orleans in 2005. The Selma attack was covered the same day on the nightly news programs, just like the Egyptian revolution. Technology with social advance does nothing to help to human condition. I think we agree about that.

Social advances are harder to measure, especially when you have such an evil force which is fighting tooth and nail to keep them from happening or reversing those advances that have been made. Witness the Republican Party, CPAC and the Koch brothers. They have more weapons in their quiver than we do -- they own the media, both houses of congress, the judiciary and presidency, and when worse comes to worse they can even cause wars to happen.

Amen.

I lived in Montgomery, Alabama, in the mid-1960s. Moving there from Alaska, I was shocked to see water fountains and bathrooms labeled "white" and "colored." It's not that way anymore. When I began flying in the Air Force there were no women pilots. By the end of my career there was a significant percentage of women pilots (and astronauts), many who were flight instructors or flight examiners. Same with the airlines. We just don't notice or care anymore. It's not an issue for most people.

Like advances in medicine, hard-fought and long-delayed minority rights have improved the quality of life for many. Again, I acknowledged that. My central thesis remains unchallenged.

I agree that our personal financial well-being has gone backward over the last 30 years, thanks to the people who put Saint Ronnie in the White House. I agree that our public school education has diminished in quality -- but I think that's because the same people who say "children are our future" are the same ones who would rather spend $30,000 on a new RV than a few thousand on property taxes each year to make the schools better, and would rather spend the night in front of their 60" flat screen television watching "American Idol" than taking part in the PTA.

Right, you are.

Socially we have entered the Orwellian world of "war is peace, lies are truth" and recently the Ayn Rand fantasy of the man who needs no other men (let him build his own car, then). BTW, when Ayn Rand (not her real name) became sick in her senior years she signed up for Social Security and Medicare.

I think the dystopian present is as much Huxley as Orwell. Rand is just a proto-neocon, an opportunist, and a frustrated self-seeker of wealth, fame and enlightenment who never quite got any of these self-canceling rewards for her efforts.

At 61 I am still amazed by our technological achievements, and hopeful about our future society. As the Egyptian people proved, there is a point where the citizenry says, "Enough!" and not only demands but causes change. They're entering a new world -- I imagine it feels like a puppy who had been raised in a kennel being suddenly released into the world -- there's both wonder, and hope, and fear. But in the end it's their choice.

When enough Americans get tired of taking their shoes off at the airport and watching the rich live in opulence while they see their jobs being sent overseas they will say, "Enough!" The Teabaggers have started it, but they are, as we said in the Air Force, "all Mach and no compass heading." The 2008 election proved that the energy is there, and we honestly thought that Obama was providing the direction. And while he has accomplished a lot, there is a lack of quality of the accomplishments. Repealing DADT doesn't replace not even attempting to achieve universal health care. Getting a Nobel Peace Prize means little if Guantanamo is still open, and our presence in Iraq and Afghanistan continues, a wound which is especially sore when the money could be used to create jobs and care for the poor and infirm in our own country. These are the social changes I agree I would like to see occur during my lifetime. The end of the Cold War was supposed to result in a "peace dividend" -- or so the Republicans kept promising as they cut social programs in the 60's, 70's and 80's. We see how that has gone.

Will we have our own Egypt moment in this country during my lifetime? I hope so, but I don't see it happening yet. Obama rode into office on a wave that could have turned into a tsunami, but he let the Republicans suck all the energy out of it in the first eight months. Saying that his previous supporters will vote for his re-election because "look at the alternative" just doesn't cut it. "VOTE OBAMA BECAUSE THE ALTERNATIVE IS WORSE!" makes a lousy campaign slogan.

I believe in the power of one person or a small group of people to change the course of history, though, and await another Martin Luther King, Jr., or John Kennedy to help us channel our energy.

I believe that one person is within us all, and have had it with false leaders. Like Egypt, I think we'll succeed if we do without leaders and don't rely upon existing parties and institutions to change themselves.

I also believe that I can be the change I desire.

I'm with you and will see you there.

[WestSeattle2]

22. OMG! A 707 - my first commercial airline flight was in one of

those! That photo brings back memories. Get this - my family wore suits to fly, as did almost all other fliers back in the day. Jeans,t-shirts and flip-flops, on any flight, were just unheard of.

[Sherman A1]

23. I agree with you

and your pics cite an example of which I was thinking just the other day. There has not been much change in design of aircraft in the last 50 years. That is not to say that they have not improved internally, with different lighter materials and electronics that allow for smaller crews to operate, but the overall design is pretty much the swept wing given to us by the Germans at the end of WWII. Even the B-2 Stealth is a 1930-40ish design of the German, Horton Brothers.

And frankly I am still waiting for the flying car in every driveway.

[ChairmanAgnostic]

6. too close to the forest to smell the . . . .

wait, that's not right.

I agree, the author is plain wrong. The changes are constant, even accelerating. When you are actively involved in those changes, you forget how far we have moved.

Cell phones used to be a rarity. Now land lines are becoming scarcer. Computers used to fill rooms. Now, I have three on my desk, including the cell phone. Knowledge is ever more available. Smart technology is making life much more efficient and safe.
But, we are also in danger. The more we rely on things, when they break or fail, it is harder to recover.

[bluerum]

7. Agreed. The change is there - and here. Solar panel outside the kitchen window

where I am staying right now. Three days ago I was 3500 miles and half an ocean away from where I am now.

I think the op is confusing cultural traditions and social convention with technology. I agree that our socio-political behaviors have not advanced. I would say that there is a large movement to pull us backwards into 'the good old days'.

[Bluenorthwest]

16. First solar panels I saw in wide use were half a world away

in 1974, I'd flown there in a day. You did the same this past week, only not as far, and not as many solar panels in use.
I do agree that the change is there, and it is easily equal to past change. But I can see how the OP article author can be both confused by it and also make a good case that in some areas, stagnation has been an issue. In other areas, not so much.

[leveymg]

8. Aside from telecom and computers, what else has really changed or improved our lives?

In many ways -- such as elimination of whole industries and a vast number of jobs -- automation, globalization and on-line commerce has made life immeasurably harder for millions of Americans.

[TomClash]

11. More accurately there really was only one huge change

The creation, development and evolution of the integrated circuit.

That accounts for most everything that has changed since the 1960s.

[DJ13]

12. I think theres a strong correlation between the rising importance of the stock market

and the stagnation of industrial innovation.

Companies are afraid to go out on a limb and spend the money needed to fund the R&D real innovation requires because it impacts the bottom line.

Blame it on the shortsighted nature of company executives who have had their pay and bonuses tied directly to the performance of their stock.

[Demeter]

14. BINGO!!! You Get the Bullseye!

That is EXACTLY what is wrong with the United States--all those MBA graduates so fixated on the bottom line that they cannot see the dead-end they drive their companies, our government, and society into.

[LongTomH]

17. +1000 on this issue

Big money, big capital is now 'risk adverse.' More money is spent buying up other companies and draining them of resources than innovating and creating value.

There are exceptions; the small startups in green technologies.

[kickysnana]

19. What good are medical advances when you cannot afford them?

If you watch Diagnosis Unknown and a couple clones you will see the US Medical system in action where doctors do not diagnose and discourage referrals to places that might diagnosis leaving people especially children vulnerable.

We do not see the gruesome ones where people actually die because they went to a doctor who said they were fine despite unbearable or life threatening symptoms.

Since it isn't in prime time we don't see it but that is the reality.

[MasonJar]

21. I think the author might be referring to the advance of mankind in

human relations, certainly stagnant since time began or worse.

[TrogL]

24. Wait 'til nanotech gets rolling

We're just seeing the tip of the iceberg.