California Governor: Two New Polls Show California rebound for Brown..Huff Post

[Stuart G]

Mark Blumenthal
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2010/10/05/california-governor-polls-_n_750497.html

Two new automated surveys on the California governors race confirm that Democrat Jerry Brown now narrowly leads Republican Meg Whitman by a narrow margin. Other new surveys released over the last 24 hours show Richard Blumenthal's lead holding in Connecticut, reconfirm the razor close margin in the Illinois Senate race and present something of a puzzle on the Ohio governor's race.

In California, the latest automated poll from SurveyUSA shows Brown leading by four percentage points (47% to 43%), while an update from Rasmussen Reports has Brown ahead by five (49% to 44%).

While the new surveys show the usual random variation, a clear shift in the data is evident: Over three weeks in late August and early September, five surveys (all but one automated) showed Whitman holding modest single-point advantages and winning between 47% and 51% of the vote. The seven surveys conducted since September 15, however, (including four using live interviewers) all show Whitman with less than 44% of the vote. While our standard trend estimate now shows Brown leading narrowly (46.2% to 44.6%), our more sensitive trend lines appear to more accurately capture the recent data and show Brown leading seven percentage points (48.8% to 41.8%).

[Aramchek]

1. haha! "narrowly leads by a narrow margin" did a Repig write this??

[Stuart G]

3. I think this last line of the above story says it all.....

".....our more sensitive trend lines appear to more accurately capture the recent data and show Brown leading seven percentage points (48.8% to 41.8%).

[bemildred]

2. "narrowly leads Republican Meg Whitman by a narrow margin"?

Someone needs an editor.

[Stuart G]

4. Another thing about this shift is...that

it should help solidify Barbara Boxers race.

People will see even more, that........... the Republicans are employers that fire people...
..Dems help people............that is all folks.

[4lbs]

5. If Brown is ahead by 5 points in Rasmussen, then double that lead, since Rasmussen notoriously

oversamples Republicans.