Blue Dogs Be Dog-Gone Soon

[Demeter]

http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2010/07/blue-dogs-be-dog-gone-soon.html

...Putting policy matters aside, what jumped out at me was a quote in the second half of the piece from somebody described as a "liberal strategist" by Dennis: "Last time I checked, the polling shows many of the Blue Dogs are poised to lose their seats. It will be tough for the Blue Dogs to drive the Democratic Caucus next year if they’re not in it." (For the record, the unidentified strategist was not me.)

The question is not whether the strategist's statement is true, but how true. Because as the two charts in this post demonstrate, whether or not they are actual members of the Blue Dog coalition or not, the Democrats whose seats are most in jeopardy this autumn almost uniformly come from the more conservative half of Speaker Nancy Pelosi's House Democratic caucus....

1. Blue Dogs or other House Democrats who often vote with them are going to account for the vast majority of House Democratic losses this November, which is not a real shocker to anyone following the situation closely;

2. The voting records of those in greater jeopardy ("toss-ups") are not much different from those who are in somewhat lesser jeopardy (the "also-competitive" seat-holders). Of course, vulnerability is a function of factors other than roll call voting records, including money and strength of opponent and district demographics and seniority.

3. The House Democratic caucus, whether holding onto a thinner majority or falling into the minority, will be more liberal in the 112th Congress than it is now.

I CANNOT DESCRIBE THE PLEASURE OF POSTING GOOD NEWS FOR ONCE....

[The Magistrate]

1. And If They Fought, Ma'am, And Voted Left, Their Prospects For Another Term Would Be Better

These people lose 'independent' support because they vote like the last Republican from the district, and they lose the enthusiasm of the Democrats in the district for the same reason. The one thing voting like the last Republican from the district will not do is get them the votes of Republicans and Republican-leaning independents. This happens every cycle, and the wretches never, ever learn....

[Jefferson23]

3. +1 n/t

[Demeter]

10. No Question, Sir

But some people would rather feather their nests than serve their country.

[bluestateguy]

2. And to think that they thought that voting agianst HCR would somehow "immunize" them

I made a list of all the Democrats who voted no on HCR (I crossed off the ones that are retiring or running for other office), and I will keep that list next to me on election night as I watch the returns come in. I expect to cross many more off the list that night too.

[rpannier]

13. That seems to be an assessment made by many Democratic politicos

If we just try and be more like the Republicans, people will love us more

[babylonsister]

4. Great, great news! nt

[Melissa G]

5. Excellent! n/t

[cascadiance]

6. Throw out the Blue dogs along with their Party of No masters!

[nradisic]

7. I hope you are right...

With Blue Dogs taking most of the hits this November would mean a slightly smaller, but much stronger Democratic voting Bloc in the house. I'll take it...

[jaysunb]

8. Most "Bluedogs" seem to have been around for awhile

I don't know about some Freshmen, but for the most part it's a pretty old coalition. :shrug:

I hope you're right a bout a more liberal House though.

[PFunk]

9. Sometimes you win by losing...

and it losing some house/senate seats now results in actually having a decent chance of seeing the return of the old FDR democratic party in the future then this is good news. The 'tent' has been too big for quite awhile now. Time to kick the DINO's to the side if we actually want to save the democratic party.

[DAMANgoldberg]

11. Prediction...NC11 & NC8

NC11-Heath Shuler will perform in November like he did with the Deadskins. He will lose to a repub, and then become one.
NC8-Larry Kissell will lose to the "Big Guy" Harold Johnson for name recognition purposes (longtime sports anchor of Ch.9).

PS, I live in NC12-Mel Watt's district, a safe one I might add. Also NC9-Sue Myrick (R-thug) is going nowhere either. And SC-5-John Spratt will get re-elected.

[NorthCarolina]

18. I wish we could dump Myrick

here in NC9, but unfortunately she is embedded like a tick it seems.

[NorthCarolina]

12. I hope this is becoming a trend for Blue Dogs AND DLC New Dems

throw the refuse out. Let them join the ranks of the GOP where they belong.

[Dr.Phool]

14. A good friend of mine is making calls for State Senator Al Lawson.

He's an African-American, running against blue dog Congressman Alan Boyd, in a Panhandle district. She gets a lot of feed-back from the calls, and people are pretty fed-up with Boyd. Some people are telling her that "Anybody But Boyd" bumperstickers are sprouting up around the district.

Bye-bye Boyd!

[southernyankeebelle]

15. In my district we had early voting I voted Mickey Mouse instead of my

conservative democrat. I let him know it also. I told him I could get better representation from Mickey than from a democrat who is really a republican lite.

[tritsofme]

16. Speaker Boehner appreciates your enthusiasm.

These are the members that made our majority, lose them, lose the gavel.

Some people here might really get what they want.

[Dr.Phool]

17. When these dogs keep forcing the majority to vote with the minority.

Does it matter?

My apologies to real dogs.