Kandahar Cluster**** Watch Pt. 2: military intervention...inflame Afghan public opinion against NATO

[laststeamtrain]

Kandahar Cluster**** Watch Pt. 2
Posted by Michael Cohen

About a year ago when I first started writing about counter-insurgency and Afghanistan I did so because I was struck by the glaring disconnect between the tactical approaches being advocated for in Afghanistan and America's larger strategic interests there. It's not that I am some raging dove, but something about the strategy just didn't seem to make sense to me; and it seemed to reflect an approach driven more by American can-doism rather than a realistic appraisal of US interests and capabilities. A year later, the problem only seems to be getting worse.

The embrace of a COIN approach in Afghanistan remains the tactical equivalent of sticking a round peg in a square hole. Indeed, even by the doctrinal standards laid out in the flawed FM 3-24, Afghanistan is an incredibly poor choice for waging a COIN fight - what with the combination of almost non-existent host country support, the continued existence of an external safe haven, the lack of enough US troops, a fully-resourced civilian surge and diminishing political will both in the US and among NATO countries. In short, if not for the supposed success of COIN in Iraq - and the fetishization of counter-insurgency doctrine in the US military - would anyone actually come to the conclusion that Afghanistan is a good place to wage a COIN fight? I seriously doubt it.

What we have seen repeatedly is an adherence to COIN, for the sake of COIN. The similarities to the strategic myopia we saw in Vietnam in Iraq are almost too uncomfortable to note. Military and political decisions are made that seem to ignore any piece of contradictory evidence. And the upcoming offensive in Kandahar is example A of how this delusional process manifests itself on the ground.

Nominally our goal in Southern Afghanistan is not simply to defeat the Taliban, but also to protect the Afghan people and encourage them to side with the government against the insurgents. As I tried to point out yesterday, every available indication suggests that military intervention in Afghanistan will not only likely fail to accomplish these goals, but may actually inflame Afghan public opinion against NATO.

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http://www.democracyarsenal.org/2010/04/kandahar-cluster-watch-pt-2.html