Obama's "raw" Job Approval rating compared to other presidents in a "recession"

[JohnWxy]

The GOP Media Echo-chamber is constantly quoting Obama's Job Approval Rating and pointing out how much it has come down.

But they NEVER attempt to normalize his Job Approval Rating (JAR) to other president's JARs during recession (of course calling the current REPUBLICAN DYSTOPIA a REcession is nonsense in itself. THis is really a DE-pression but let's let that go for the moment).

I looked for presidents job approval ratings during recessionary times over the last several presidents. I ruled out Nixon as his ratings were obviously affected by his attempt to circumvent a democratic election (Watergate), and the two Bushes as they both were prosecuting wars during the time they had recessions and during war time presidential JARs are powerfully affected by the publics attitude about the war. The shrub of course was aided by the patriotic feelings following the despicable attack on the WTC. Later, growing contempt of Bush showed up in his ratings but that was mostly due to voters slowly beginning to see through the Cheney administrations avalanche of disinformation about just about everything they were doing.

So that left me with only two presidents to use for comparison: Carter and Reagan.

Carter had a recession to contend with from (Jan 1980 : Jul - 1980)

Reagan had a recession to deal with from (July 1981 –Nov 1982)

I compared how much the Job Approval Ratings for Carter and Reagan changed proportionally (from the beginning of the recession to the declared end) relative to the proportional change (increase) in the Unemployment rate during the recession.

Carter's recession showed a proportional increase in unemployment (from 4.5% which is considered a good measure of full employment that does not cause inordinate inflation) of 73% while his Job Approval Rating went down, proportionately, 46%. So his JAR varied about -.62 relative to the change (proportional) in unemployment rate.

Reagan's recession had an proportionate increase in unemployment of 140% while his JAR went down 39%. So his JAR varied -.28 as fast as the proportionate change in unemployment rate.

I averaged Carter and Reagan's statistics and got a average proportionate change in Unemployment of 106.7% with an average proportionate decline it Job Approval Rating of 42%. This yields a JAR sensitivity to proportionate change in Unemployment rate of -.40.


For Obama, the Unemployment rate proportionate increase for the REPUBLICAN DYSTOPIA was 126% while Obama's JAR went down 19% (proportional decline) for a change relative to the Unemployment rate change of -.15 (that is, Obama's Job Approval Rating moved -15% as much as the proportionate change in the unemployment rate). Note since the Deregulation Depression has not been declared over yet, I used Dec 2009 (for Obama's Job Approval Rating) since the GDP showed positive growth in Dec. 2009.

If Obama's Job Approval Rating was as sensitive as Carter's and Reagan's was (averaged) to the change in Unemployment rate, his approval rating now would be about 31% meaning his actual Job Appr rating of 50% is about 61% higher than what the Presidential Job Approval rating would be normalized for recessions and the attendant rise in the Unemployment rate.

Obama's Job Approval Rating's lower sensitivity to the change in the Unemployment rate than the average of Carter's and Reagan's is probably the result of people not considering Obama responsible for this high unemployment rate. People realize the economic morass we are in is a result of Republican policies of Deregulation (of Wall Street and a refusal to regulate Predatory lenders) and the shifting of the tax burden from those in the highest income brackets to those in the middle.

While my data selection may not be flawless, it's a good deal more meaningful than just repeating Obama's raw Job Approval Rating as M$M likes to do. (It's also quite surprising to me that the pollsters do not make some effort like this to normalize Obama's rating using those of other presidents during times of similar economic conditions)


Here is a link to the spreadsheet that shows my calculations:

http://sites.google.com/site/truthisstrangerthanfictionx/Obama_ratings.xls