The Road Out of Iraq is Through Tehran

[kalian]

http://www.financialsense.com/editorials/duarte/2004/0513.html

The Bush administration is learning something rather unpleasant about Iraq. The way out is likely through Tehran. And that sets up a significant set of very negative logistics for the future.

According to a report on Stratfor.com, citing an Iranian newspaper, negotiations between Shiite cleric Al-Sadr, and the United States are under way, and are being mediated by “representatives dispatched by Qom-based Grand Ayatollah Kazem Hossein Haeri.” The interesting twist, is that according to Stratfor, al-Sadr, is Haeri’s protégé.

The net effect would be three fold in the short term. First, Stratfor notes that the “Iran Daily report suggests Haeri might be engineering a deal that would require the Mehdi Army to stand down and relinquish control to the CPA, allowing the United States to avoid a potentially explosive situation.” Second, Stratfor reports that “Haeri is asking the CPA not to try al-Sadr for the April 2003 murder of Grand Ayatollah Abdul Qasim al-Khoei until after the transitional government takes office July 1.”

And third“ “negotiators representing al-Sadr are lobbying for the Mehdi Army to be recognized as a legitimate political party so it can compete in future elections. The negotiators say if the CPA accepts these demands, al-Sadr will order his men to stand down.”

...more...

Fascinating scenario and one in which the US loses its geopolitical
power within the region.

[PSU84]

1. What geopolitical power is that?

I hadn't noticed any.

[bemildred]

2. Not buying it.

STRATFOR is a state propaganda organ, this sounds
like the current disinfo campaign, coming from other
sources as well. The Iranian angle is a fig-leaf.
I am speculating, but it appears aimed at sliding
through the June 30th deadline somehow. Meanwhile
the fighting continues.