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I think that we are going to get health care reform within the next eighteen months.
I think it will not please everyone who wants nothing less than a single-payer, government-based, universal coverage health system.
I think it will be a fairly messy, cobbled-together bill with a number of items grafted onto it for no other purpose than to slow the inevitable demise of Big Corporate Healthcare (BCH)--the Health Insurance congloms, Big Pharma, the big for-profit provider networks.
I think it will not look dramatic at first, and many people will be loud and vehement in their disappointment that so much cash and consideration ended up being wasted on BCH.
I think it will get off to a slow start, and many people will be loud and vehement in their disappointment that many people still have problems getting the health care they need, that it still costs more than it should, that there are still cracks, some of them large and gaping, and that people are still falling through them.
And I think this is the plan, and for a very good reason:
Because BCH is already moribund. Because the new law WILL kill it off, but the death throes will be protracted and dangerous, and those planning the transition want to minimize the harm.
Why not go for the mercy stroke NOW, and kill it off with one overt, official blow?
Well, partly because politically the risk of failure remains too great if our reach exceeds our grasp.
But also because BCH represents a large chunk of our economy. A slow death provides the opportunity to minimize the damage of as much as three or four percent of the economy going pawsup all at once. The shedding of jobs from primary (BCH itself) and secondary (the marketing firms, media people, law and finance and others connected to, and dependent on, BCH) needs to be done in stages, slowly, so that productive folk can be re-absorbed back into the health care sector under new auspices, and the con artists and predators can find new hosts.
Because, you see, the bottom line remains:
Any of the major provisions of reform, if passed in any viable form at all, WILL kill off BCH.
Big Corporate Healthcare is a house of cards, built on an unsustainable premise and propped up by a giant con game, viable only so long as they could keep the game rigged six ways from Sunday.
Un-rig the game in any significant respect, and the balloon goes up, and the gravy train derails.
Nations that have figured out how to provide health care to their people understand that the term "insurance" is merely a convention. What they provide, whether via a single-payer, public option, or via an outsourced, tightly-regulated, "privatized" option, is not actually "insurance" in any significant respect. It is, rather, a payment scheme, with cost-and-benefit sharing for all participants.
"Insurance" is based on the concept of risk. And risk, by its nature and definition, is NOT certainty. We do not take out fire insurance because we are certain that, at some point, our home will catch fire. We take out fire insurance because it MIGHT catch fire. As might all of our neighbors.
If two thousand of my neighbors and I all pay modest premiums to a fire insurance provider over the course of a few years, the insurance provider can have a reasonable expectation that the vast majority of those premiums can be invested in interest-bearing instruments, accruing additional cash in the fund against the day that the fire rages out of control and consumes my neighbor's home and damages mine, and they have to pay out a whacking great sum all at once to both of us, and still remain solvent and capable of paying out if the odds are particularly bad that year and another neighbor's house burns.
That's been the basis of insurance ever since the first bunch of merchants clubbed together to share the risk of someone's goods caravan being lost or victimized by bandits. There was never, ever, any certainty that ALL of them would, at some point, lose a caravan.
Schemes where we pay in premiums for the CERTAINTY of needing a payout, not once, but several times over the course of our lives, and the almost 100% chance that by the end of our lives we will need at least one substantial payout, are not insurance. Sickness, injury, and the need for preventive care and maintenance on our bodies is not a "might happen," it is a WILL happen. Not a risk. A certainty.
Big Corporate Healthcare, therefore, is founded on a swindle. The idea that what we have is "insurance," and that what we are paying can reasonably be called "premiums," and that we are somehow "sharing risk," is a lie. And they know it is a lie.
They know it as they try to turf everyone out of their risk pools who conceivably might demand substantial payouts SOON. (Refusing coverage to those with "pre-existing conditions.")
They know it as they attempt to retroactively boot out any currently 'covered' individuals who have the temerity to claim payouts. (Recission.)
By choosing to limit their (for want of a better term) risk pools to those who can be reasonably expected to not need substantial payouts in the next few years, they have shrunk those pools to a point where they are doomed to a vicious cycle: Without adequate pay-ins to maintain the profitability demanded by their executive salary bills, marketing costs, and shareholder expectations, they must cut costs and limit payouts. (Lifetime caps, exclusions from coverage, high deductibles and co-pays, and continually-skyrocketing premiums.)
If the health care reform that WILL pass, however unsatisfactory it may look, denies BCH any of those stratagems, they die. Period.
If they can no longer refuse coverage to people who might get sick, they die.
If they can no longer boot off their rolls anyone who starts making big claims, they die.
If they can no longer cap payouts, exclude the most costly coverage, or charge outrageously inflated premiums, THEY. DIE.
Period. If any ONE of those things is part of whatever health care reform is passed, they are done, good-night, dead. They pass on. They cease to be. They expire and head off to meet their Maker. They are stiffs. Bereft of life, they will rest in peace. Their metabolic processes are history. They shuffle off the mortal coil, ring down the curtain, and join the choir invisible. They are EX-CORPORATIONS.
And they know this. Why do you think they are pulling out ALL the stops to prevent it, even to the point of bribing, coercing, and suckering the GOP into squandering every last shred of credibility that might conceivably remain to them as a major political party, dooming themselves to a wilderness among the wackjobs for a generation or more? The GOP is their friend, their best tool, their biggest gun, their last hope. The fact that they are willing to spend its political capital broke, destroy its ability to function at all, demonstrates that they are fighting in the last ditch with their backs against a crumbling wall and they know it.
It might take ten years, it might take longer, but if any of those things are denied to them, they will eventually succumb: They will go bankrupt, or (much less likely) they will re-organize into entities that are effectively non-profits, and poor, shoddy, inefficient ones at that. Eventually their own ineptitude at meeting the demands within the new legal framework will be so egregious that the next stage of reform WILL happen. Finally, we will have something not unlike one of the models that other, saner nations have already piloted.
Given this reality, I see great wisdom in the slowing-down of the process that has occurred over the last few months. Not only is it clever strategically, as many have pointed out, but it limits the potential economic damage they can still do in their hideous, protracted death throes. We allow them to exhaust their energy, spend out their cash, garner an increasingly massive tide of ill-will as they abuse and extort their customers further, and eventually leach them of any real power to do major harm during the transition.
They will still do all the harm they can, no doubt of that. But they are dying, and soon their massive thrashings will begin to lose power and conviction, the mobs of wackos parroting talking points will lose interest and stay home, canny media moguls with fingers to the wind will start abandoning them, and even the Blue Dogs will begin to pass up those tempting bribes and claim they were "pro-reform all along!"
I could still be wrong about all of this.
But I don't think so.
prognosticatorially, Bright
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