Independent UK: NHS prepares for 65,000 deaths from swine flu

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NHS prepares for 65,000 deaths from swine flu
'Worst case scenario' projected by Chief Medical Officer 255,000 new cases as pandemic claims 29 lives

By Jeremy Laurance, Health Editor
Friday, 17 July 2009


The NHS is planning for up to 65,000 deaths from swine flu, between three and 10 times the normal winter flu death rate, the Chief Medical Officer says.

The figure was a "reasonable worst case scenario", to allow the health service to put in place "robust" plans to deal with the pandemic's first wave, the full scale of which will not be known for months. It was not a prediction of what was expected to happen, Sir Liam Donaldson said yesterday.

"We cannot give an estimate of the likely deaths. It is far too early, and there are not enough cases on which to give even ballpark figures," he said.

The swine flu pandemic is growing exponentially with 55,000 new cases in the past week, twice the number in the previous week. There have been 29 deaths across the UK, up from 16 the previous week, and the number of people admitted to hospital because of the virus has doubled to 652. There was a "massive surge" in consultations with GPs last Monday and pressure on the NHS has become intense, Sir Liam said. In response, he announced the launch of the National Pandemic Flu Service, a dedicated internet and telephone helpline with 2,000 operators, to take the pressure off frontline medical staff.

Planning assumptions for the NHS, published yesterday, show that up to half of all children may eventually fall ill with swine flu. Although the virus is still mild in most people – and there is no sign yet that it is mutating – it is targeting younger people. The hospitalisation rate for the under-fives is four times that for other age groups. .............(more)

The complete piece is at: http://www.independent.co.uk/life-style/health-and-families/health-news/nhs-prepares-for-65000-deaths-from-swine-flu-1750091.html