http://www.nj.com/columns/ledger/farmer/index.ssf?/base/columns-0/105997549225580.xmlDean a wrench in Big Labor's plans
Monday, August 04, 2003
If Howard Dean's upstart drive for the 2004 Democratic presidential nomination is to be derailed, it may be up to organized labor to do it.
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The Iowa Poll will be a major concern for Big Labor's umbrella organization, the AFL-CIO, when it meets in Chicago tomorrow to hear from all nine Democratic candidates. On Wednesday, its Executive Committee is scheduled to debate behind closed doors whether to endorse any Democrat in the nomination race and which one -- or to postpone the decision to let the race shake out a bit more. Only twice before has the AFL-CIO taken a stand in the nomination process.
The problem for labor now is that no one candidate seems to satisfy its conflicting interests.
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Dean has never really figured in labor's calculations, until now. Indeed, until the start of summer his candidacy seemed little more than an ego outing. But his no-quarter attack on Bush -- opposition to the Iraq war and a total repeal of Bush's $2 trillion in tax cuts over 10 years-- has caught fire among Democratic activists and those alienated by what they see as a too-timid, me-too Democratic Party in Washington.
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But whether it can get its act together is another question. To win the AFL-CIO nod, a candidate needs support from two-thirds of its constituent unions, no piece of cake. Absent an AFL-CIO endorsement, Iowa's unions would be free to pick and choose among the candidates, inviting the kind of split that could help Dean.
Despite his sudden surge, Dean may yet prove a bust, as Gary Hart did. But maybe not. As J. Ann Selzer, director of the poll, put it, "This isn't as much a niche candidacy," she said, "as some people have wanted to portray it."
John Farmer is The Star-Ledger's national political correspondent.
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