Ahmadinejad win was actually preferable for Israel

[IndianaGreen]

Last update - 04:41 14/06/2009

ANALYSIS / Ahmadinejad win was actually preferable for Israel

By Amos Harel and Avi Issacharoff, Haaretz Correspondent

Any early bets about the results of Iran's presidential elections bordered on stupidity. Israeli intelligence can predict with certainty only the results of election campaigns in the pseudo-democracies of the Arab world, such as Egypt and Syria, in which the ruler will never drop below a threshold of 99 percent of the voters.

When it comes to countries or entities in which the process is closer to genuine democracy, there is a greater chance for forecasts to fail. That is what happened under Israel's nose during the Palestinian Authority parliamentary election three and a half years ago, when the intelligence community did not foresee the victory of Hamas (the Shin Bet security service cunningly covered itself in advance with a prediction of "both this and that").

That is probably what happened at the beginning of last week, when Israeli intelligence - like every other pundit in the region - did not foresee that the moderate pro-Western alliance would actually defeat Hezbollah in the Lebanese election. And if that was the case in Lebanon, it's all the more so in Iran: 1,000 kilometers from us, over 70 million inhabitants, 46 million voters and a process in which certain aspects, at least, are surprising in their openness. When it comes to Iran, there is no escaping the old cliche about the elephant and the Jewish problem. And in this case, paradoxically, it seems that from Israel's point of view the victory of incumbent President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad is actually preferable. Not only because "better the devil you know," but because the victory of the pro-reform candidate will paste an attractive mask on the face of Iranian nuclear ambitions.

Western experts now agree that even during the tenure of moderate president Mohammad Khatami (1997-2005), the nuclear program continued to advance. And in any case, the person who really decides on the nuclear issue is not the president but the spiritual leader. One of the president's advisers even made it clear recently, in an interview with Reuters, that the spiritual leader will continue to shape his country's nuclear policy, regardless of the election results.

http://www.haaretz.com/hasen/spages/1092587.html

[jaysunb]

1. No doubt about that !

I wonder what Bibi will say tomorrow, now that this has happened.:shrug:

[dflprincess]

2. I'm sure it was preferable for the U.S. as well

we always need someone we can demonize.