|
Analysis by the Numbers by Steven Kul December 19, 2008 Sitting in a focus group, a young Jordanian bewailed America’s relationship with his region: “Since 1948, we have tried peace, but everything turned out to be a lie. Looking to the future, we don’t see anything except more wars, problems and efforts to control our leadership.” While in recent years, views of the United States have been quite negative around the world, they have been particularly virulent in the Middle East. Majorities in some countries have even expressed support for attacks on US troops and for key aspects of al Qaeda’s anti-US agenda, including driving the United States out of the region. Thus, there is particular interest in the question of whether a new Obama administration might elicit a more positive response from publics in this part of the world. Pre-election polling found tepid enthusiasm for Obama. A July-August 2008 BBC/GlobeScan/PIPA poll of 22 countries around the world found the Middle East region to have the lowest level of enthusiasm for Obama. While results indicated more favored Obama than McCain in each of the four Middle Eastern countries polled, the total percentage expressing support for Obama was very low in the larger countries (26 percent in both Egypt and Turkey) and fell short of a majority in the smaller countries (39 percent in Lebanon and 46 percent in the United Arab Emirates ).
Asked what effect they thought an Obama presidency would have on US relations with the world, in every case the numbers saying relations would be better were less than half: Egypt, 29 percent; Turkey, 11 percent; Lebanon, 30 percent; the UAE 40 percent. In every case, this was below the worldwide average of 46 percent and far below the robust majorities expressing optimism in Europe and Africa.
A Pew poll conducted in spring 2008 also asked people in five Middle Eastern countries how much confidence they had in Obama to do the right thing in international affairs. Only small minorities expressed some or a lot of confidence in Pakistan (7 percent), Egypt (23 percent), Turkey (7 percent), Jordan (20 percent), and Lebanon (22 percent).
So if “not being Bush” is not enough to turn around US relations with the Middle East, what will it take? A further analysis of polls, as well as focus groups I have conducted in five Middle Eastern countries, suggest that there are numerous questions about US policy in the Middle East that people there will be looking to the Obama administration to answer. The three most central ones are: (1) will the United States continue to have a dominating military presence in the region? (2) will the United States play an even-handed role in the Israel-Palestinian conflict? (3) will the United States support democratization in the region?
US Military Presence: Perceptions by the Numbers
The US military presence in Iraq is, of course, the most visible aspect of US presence in the region and a highly unpopular one. One might assume that if the United States were to withdraw its combat forces from Iraq on the 16-month timetable that Obama has proposed, this would mitigate tensions. This may be the case, but this alone will not address the most fundamental concern associated with US military presence.
To an extent that some US citizens may find difficult to understand, people in the Middle East perceive US forces as posing a threat to them. In a 2007 Pew poll of eight Middle Eastern nations, majorities ranging from 57 percent in Lebanon to 92 percent in Morocco said they were worried “that the US could become a military threat to our country someday.” Even in Turkey – a NATO ally -- 76 percent had such a worry, as did 61 percent in Kuwait, a country the United States has defended.
Polls show very strong support for removing all US military forces from the region. In a 2007 WorldPublicOpinion.org (WPO) poll, conducted in conjunction with the Study of Terrorism and Response to Terrorism (START) Center at the University of Maryland, large majorities supported the goal of getting “the US to remove its bases and its military forces from all Islamic countries” in Morocco (72 percent), Egypt (92 percent), and Pakistan (71 percent).
US bases in the Persian Gulf are similarly quite unpopular. In a 2008 WPO poll, large majorities said it is a “bad idea” for the United States to have naval forces in the Persian Gulf, including Egyptians (80 percent), Jordanians (76 percent), Palestinians (90 percent), and Turks (77 percent). Equally large majorities also believe (apparently correctly) that this is the majority view throughout the region.
The argument that US forces in the region offer stability is not persuasive to Middle Eastern audiences. In a 2007 BBC/GlobeScan/PIPA poll, respondents were asked, “Do you think the US military presence in the Middle East is a stabilizing force or provokes more conflict than it prevents?” Large majorities in all four Middle Eastern countries polled said it provokes more conflict than it prevents, including people in Egypt (85 percent), Turkey (76 percent), Lebanon (77 percent) and even the UAE (66 percent)—a country that hosts such a base and is ostensibly more secure as a result.
US military presence is viewed in the context of several invidious goals widely attributed to the United States. One of these assumed goals is to coercively assure US access to oil. In a WPO poll, robust majorities agreed with the statement “America pretends to be helpful to Muslim countries, but in fact everything it does is really part of a scheme to take advantage of people in the Middle East and steal their oil,” a position endorsed by majorities in Egypt (87 percent), Morocco (62 percent), and Pakistan (56 percent). According to one WPO poll, very large majorities said that they think it is a goal of the United States to “maintain control over the oil resources of the Middle East,” including Egyptians (91 percent), Moroccans (82 percent), Pakistanis (68 percent), Jordanians (87 percent), Palestinians (89 percent), and Turks (89 percent).
The United States is also seen as having goals hostile to Islam. Large majorities across six countries said that a goal of US foreign policy is to “weaken and divide the Islamic world,” including Egypt (92 percent) the Palestinian Territories (87 percent), Turkey (82 percent), Jordan (80 percent), Morocco (78 percent), and Pakistan (73 percent). The United States is seen as feeling threatened by Islam: large majorities agreed that “It is America’s goal to weaken Islam so that it will not grow and challenge the Western way of life” including in Egypt (87 percent), Morocco (69 percent) and Pakistan (62 percent).
http://www.harvardir.org/articles/1812/ |
Printer-friendly format
Email this thread to a friend
Bookmark this thread
(1000+ posts)
Send PM |
Profile |
Ignore
