McCain's path to victory through Pa.

[dtotire]

McCain's path to victory through Pa.

By CHARLES MAHTESIAN | 10/22/08 2:07 PM EDT


Facing seemingly limited options for getting to an Electoral College majority, John McCain’s path to victory likely runs through Pennsylvania, a state that no Republican presidential candidate has won in two decades, where he trails in the polls by a wide margin and where in the past year over a half-million new Democrats have been added to the voter registration rolls.

It’s an unenviable position to be in, except for one thing: Nearly everyone in a position to know thinks the race for Pennsylvania’s 21 electoral votes is considerably tighter than what recent polls reveal.

“There’s a tendency in Pennsylvania for the polls to change dramatically in the final days,” says John Brabender, a top Republican political consultant based in Pittsburgh. “In the governor’s race in 2002, there were polls just a few days out showing with a 25-point lead and he ended up losing 50 of 67 counties and won by nine points.”

“I don’t believe there’s a double-digit lead,” said Jon Delano, a western Pennsylvania-based political analyst who also serves as an adjunct professor of Public Policy and Politics at Carnegie Mellon University. “The history of the presidential elections here is different.”

Even top Democrats concede that McCain’s deficit in the polls—11 percentage points, according to the latest RealClearPolitics polling average—isn’t a solid indicator of his chances of carrying the state. On Tuesday, CNN reported that an anxious Rendell has sent two recent memos to the Obama campaign requesting that the Democratic nominee spend more time campaigning in Pennsylvania.
“The polls don’t necessarily reflect what will happen on Election Day,” said T.J. Rooney, the state Democratic Party chairman. “We’re not a state that’s accustomed to huge blowouts.”

Indeed, John Kerry carried Pennsylvania in 2004 by just 144,000 votes out of nearly 6 million votes cast. His win was powered, to a large degree, by an enormous 412,000-vote margin out of Philadelphia.

1 | 2 | Next Page >>

http://www.politico.com/news/stories/1008/14830.html

[tekisui]

1. This is like talking about fairy tales.

Obama is up by double digits in PA. mcPOW ain't taking it.

[Zynx]

2. I agree. People said the same thing about the Virginia governor's race in 2005.

They said all of this stuff about big leads that would evaporate. That didn't happen.

[KamaAina]

3. Check this out! McLoser's Pa. strategy involves poaching Biden's home town!

"How do you flip 140,000 votes? You start by cutting in places like Lackawanna and Luzerne counties," said the McCain campaign source, referring to Scranton and Wilkes-Barre, the traditionally conservative Democratic population hubs of northeastern Pennsylvania.

Scranton, of course, is the boyhood home of the next Vice President of the United States, Senator Joe Biden. And, apparently, McLoser is counting on making inroads there to help him carry the state so he can saddle us with four (or less, but then we'd get Moose-olini! :scared: ) more years of this fascist crap! :rofl:

Just in case, though, it'd be good for Biden to go to Scranton some time in the next couple of weeks. Maybe he could take Hillary with him (remember, she has roots there, too :-) ).

[holiday]

4. he also has to flip more than just PA