http://www.economist.com/World/europe/displayStory.cfm?story_id=1940604Stand firm against the United States? Try—not too hard—to make friends again? France's leaders are divided, and debating
THE further the Americans and British have got mired in Iraq, the harder it has become for the French to conceal their sense that their opposition to the war has been vindicated. So far, despite lingering bitterness at their treatment by George Bush's team, Jacques Chirac's have put on an air of studied non-triumphalism, and a public tone of reconciliation. Franco-American difficulties “have been essentially superficial,” said the president in his usual July 14th television interview, saying the media had exaggerated them. But though all quarters of his administration share a remarkably unshaken view that France took the right line, there is a vigorous internal debate over how now to manage, or heal, the soured relationship.
Public opinion has been astonishingly uniform in its support for Mr Chirac's opposition to the war. Now, every unfound weapon of mass destruction, every unfounded intelligence claim, every American casualty, only adds to this view. “We said that winning the peace was going to be much harder,” Dominique de Villepin, the foreign minister, told Le Figaro recently: “We see day after day just how difficult the situation is.”“Iraqi weapons, lies and manipulations,” crowed a recent headline in Le Monde.
But has France paid a price in other ways? Condoleezza Rice, Mr Bush's national security adviser, reportedly urged his administration to “punish France, ignore Germany, forgive Russia.” And the French have indeed been snubbed. President Bush left the G8 summit at Evian early. This week, Silvio Berlusconi, Italy's pro-war prime minister, got to ride about the Bush ranch in Texas, while Mr Chirac has been firmly told not to expect an invitation “any time soon”. Yet an evaluation by the French foreign ministry suggests that the economic damage amounts to little more than a drop in wine sales and American tourists. France's exports have been hurt more by the strength of the euro than by “French-bashing” in Washington.
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The two views could find common ground on one immediate issue: helping the Americans in Iraq. “The more they get into a mess there, the easier it will be for France to be generous,” argues Dominique Moïsi, of the French Institute for International Relations. In some ways, the French would quite like to be asked for help, enabling them to appear magnanimous in spirit and be useful in practice. But not without a UN mandate. Whether Mr Bush could face asking, let alone agree to a UN banner, is another matter. The real long-term trouble for France may be its complacency about the depth of America's wounded feelings.