McCain's Fate Hangs on 3 States (PA, Minn,, and Wis - Politico)

[JPZenger]

http://www.politico.com/news/stories/1008/14226.html

"Sen. John McCain (R-Ariz.) now must win Pennsylvania, Wisconsin or Minnesota in order to get enough electoral votes to win the presidency, his campaign says. Those were considered swing states in 2000 and 2004, but George W. Bush lost them both times.

“Our ability to pick off one of those three states is where our fortunes are largely held,” a McCain official said. “These are states where Barack Obama is on the defense.”

McCain's political director, Mike DuHaime, told reporters on a conference call three hours before debate time that the campaign plans an "aggressive" front in Maine, a solidly Democratic state that gets virtually no attention in presidential races.

McCain has very limited ways to win, with no room for error. Sen. Barack Obama (D-Ill.) still has many routes to the White House and so can afford to campaign on a much broader playing field."

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McCain now has 23 campaign offices in PA, with more opening. He is moving paid staff and advertising dollars from Michigan to PA.

[Virginia Dare]

1. I thought Obama was up by 12 points in MN..

I don't know about the other two, but I still think McCain's toast, regardless. There will be some big surprises going Obama's way on election day.

[Bosso 63]

2. Obama has Minnesota.

[glinda]

3. Don't be so sure

There are a lot of silent people here in MN. I have understood he is up but given all the possible voting issues, he is going to have to have a secure lead. There are a lot of people in mid-Mn and Northern Mn that are conservative and generally in my opinion don't go beyond the basic tv channels in what they learn about the candidates, let alone have any exposure to African Americans.

[endthewar]

9. Minnesota is done

PA is probably too hard for him to get as well.

[torbird]

4. Yeah, MN is over.

Besides, there's a regional effect. IL is, naturally, locked up for Obama. The border effect is that IN is now in play. McCain has conceded MI. MN has swung big time for Obama.

So, if McCain is planning to advance in WI, which is surrounded by Obama states -- with thousands of Obama staffers and canvassers who can just drive/bike/ride/walk over to WI and organize -- then McCain is a bigger fool than we thought.

And, PA is for Obama. I will be interested to see what McCain thinks he can do there.

Wow, this is really getting near the end. Who's excited?

[JPZenger]

5. Now 1.1 million more Dems than Repubs in PA

As of last month, there were 1.1 million more registered Dems in PA than Republicans. That is a huge increase. Meanwhile, tens of thousands of additional Dems have being registered over the last month. Springsteen is holding a huge free pro-Obama concert in Phil. Saturday, where volunteers will work the crowds to register voters. There have been many bus loads of volunteers coming into PA. from New York and New Jersey to help Obama. (They not only volunteer their time, but they pay $40 for their bus ride).

Meanwhile, I haven't seen any evidence of an active campaign by McCain in PA, other than renting office space. The Obama offices in PA keep running out of signs and bumper stickers, while I understand the McCain offices have plenty to spare.

[elocs]

6. I think Obama is starting to pull away here in Wisconsin and reestablishing his previous lead.

He was just here in La Crosse on Wednesday morning and the crowd was originally expected to be no more than a few thousand people to maybe 4-5000 and it turned out to be 15,000 people in a city with a population of 52,000 (I had stood in line for 4 hours and was only about 10 yards in front of Obama).

The negative ads by McCain are coming fast and furious here though. I can only imagine what it will be like in the final weeks.

For any who believe that campaign yard signs do not matter, they do matter here. Obama signs outnumber those of McCain by 2 to 1. To visually see that is inspiring to Obama supporters and I believe that it is demoralizing to McCain backers, making them feel like they are being overwhelmed (and they are).

[taddles]

7. That's gonna be a hard sell

McCain hasn't been ahead in any poll in any of these three states since before June. Right now he is trailing by 12 in MN, 9 in WI and 6 in PA. Since he hasn't been able to pull ahead in any of these states even after his convention bump, the likelihood of him suddenly pulling any of these states is about nil.

As to MN, the outstate (conservative) vote is next to irrelevant. 75% of the states population lives in and around the metro area and they generally vote more Dem, have done so for decades. If the primaries were any indication, the miles long car lines to vote for Obama and the historic turn out of Dems will take MN out of any contention for McCain.

[wellstone dem]

10. And don't forget the democratic Minnesota Iron Range

Solidly democratic.

Also, Obama will carry the colleges in St. Cloud, St. Joe, Collegeville, and Morris.

[Maureen1322]

8. We are here and we are waiting. Bring it Johnny boy.