http://www.guardian.co.uk/comment/story/0,3604,1164264,00.htmlIf Tony Blair's purpose was to set out a credible and internally consistent justification for his decision to go to war against Iraq and establish it as a model for the reordering of international relations, his speech failed on both counts. Instead, it exemplified the intellectual and moral confusion of a man who acted on gut instinct and now finds himself rebuked by the facts. One year on, the prime minister still seems uncertain about how to characterise the war.
He started by acknowledging that it wasn't a humanitarian intervention to liberate the people of Iraq from tyranny, but concluded that "we surely have a responsibility to act when a nation's people are subjected to a regime such as Saddam's". This is hardly a passing detail; it goes to the heart of Blair's proposals for reform of the UN and his new "doctrine of international community".
More troubling was the assertion that intervention was necessary to prevent Islamist terrorists and an authoritarian regime armed with weapons of mass destruction making common cause to attack the west. There was scarcely a scintilla of evidence to support this thesis before the war started and there is even less in its aftermath.
No group of people can have been subjected to more threats or offered more inducements than the Iraqi scientists and Ba'athists in coalition hands. Not one has substantiated the allegation that Saddam was stockpiling WMD, let alone that he was considering passing them to al-Qaida. The link is a product of Blair's imagination and the moral reductionism he mistakes for statesmanship. The world, as he sees it, consists of "good guys" and "bad guys", with the latter combining to form a composite threat. This may be an asset for a Hollywood scriptwriter, not for a world leader. This is not to dismiss the threat posed by terrorists or their ambition to acquire the means to kill on an ever-larger scale. Both are well-attested facts. The problem for Blair is that there is no convincing evidence to support his contention that regime change in Baghdad has made that threat more remote and rather a lot to suggest the opposite.