THE MATH Weekly – For the Week Ending Sunday, Sept 14 – Obama 269, McCain 269

[phrigndumass]

THE MATH Weekly – For the Week Ending Sunday, September 14, 2008


Contents:
1. Current Stats
2. Electoral Votes
3. Strength of Electoral Votes
4. Electoral Votes Comparison to 2004
5. Popular Vote and National Polls
6. Probabilities and Potentials
7. State Poll Averages Comparison
8. The Week in Trading and National Poll Averages
9. This Week’s State Polls (Detail)
10. States Ranked with High Undecideds and Outdated Polls
11. Sources and Links







1. Current Stats

With only 51 days remaining until the election, the pollsters decided to stop polling the states almost completely the week following the Democratic convention but turned 180 degrees and polled almost every state (more than once) the week following the Republican convention. Maybe they were all at the RNC convention last week. Regardless, the changes this week are due to McCain’s bounce from his convention. But the best he can manage when everything is in his favor is to tie Obama in the Electoral College count, 269 to 269.

States moving to the left this week are: Missouri (11) and New Hampshire (4). States moving to the right this week are: Florida (27), Georgia (15), Montana (3), New Jersey (15), North Carolina (15), North Dakota (3), Ohio (20), Pennsylvania (21), South Dakota (3), Virginia (13) and Wisconsin (10). Montana, North Dakota, Ohio and Virginia were the only states to switch sides this week.


Election Day: Tuesday, November 4, 2008


Number of Days Until the Election: 51 days


Current Projected Electoral Votes:
Obama – 269
McCain – 269
Needed to Win – 270


Current Projected Popular Vote:
Obama – 58,072,069 … (45.8%) … (-530,633)
McCain – 58,602,702 … (46.2%)
Barr – 2,981,160 … (2.4%)
Nader – 2,062,930 … (1.6%)
McKinney – 126,721 … (0.1%)
Undecided/Other – 5,002,138 … (3.9%)


Swing States Leaning:
Obama – 41.24%
McCain – 58.76%


Projected Popular Vote if Undecideds Break the Same as Swing States:
Obama – 60,150,000 … (47.5%) … (-1,380,000)
McCain – 61,530,000 … (48.5%)
All Others – 4,891,000 … (3.9%)


Probability of Obama Win – 50.0% (if the election were held today)


Strength of Projection – 82.3%



^ FIGURE 1a. This is what we refer to as the “Widget”. In the white section, it shows Obama’s and McCain’s electoral vote projection from three different sources. 270 would be a majority. In the yellow section, it shows three sources of trading and averages for the candidates. The scale for these is 0 to 100, with 50 being a majority. Intrade shows the trading, while RCP-av shows the aggregate average of all the state polls. The Wigand Electoral Average is our own indicator, and shows how the candidates will do if the undecideds nationwide break the same way as the swing states.



^ FIGURE 1b. This chart shows the seats projected to be picked up by Democrats in November in Congress. The projection is from Electionprojection.com.




2. Electoral Votes (270 needed to win)

Obama is currently winning 40.1% of the electoral votes outside of the margin of error, compared to McCain’s 40.1%. The number of electoral votes within the margin of error comes to about one-fifth of the total this week. Once we consider Obama’s lead in the swing states (trailing 41.2%-58.8%) and add how well he is doing in the states within the margin of error (momentum), his electoral vote projection arrives at 269, down from 329 last week.



^ FIGURE 2a. This chart shows the projected electoral votes for each candidate outside of the margin of error (+/- 4.0%). A pie chart is used to illustrate the percentage of the total 538 electoral votes up for grabs this year.



^ FIGURE 2b. This graph shows the daily tracking of Obama’s projected electoral votes from three sources. 270 is a majority of the electoral votes. The blue line shows daily tracking from 538.com, which projects what the outcome should be on election day. The red line shows daily tracking from Electoral-Vote.com, which shows a current snapshot of Obama’s electoral progress if the undecideds break evenly. The green line is my own projection, and it shows a current snapshot of Obama’s electoral progress if the undecideds break the same way as the swing states. A trend line is used (dashed green line) to show the average progress since May 19 and the possible route for the next seven days.







3. Strength of Electoral Votes

The states within the margin of error decreased 24electoral votes this week, down from 130 electoral votes to 106 electoral votes. Pennsylvania (21) and Wisconsin (10) moved into the margin of error this week, while Florida (27), Montana (3), New Hampshire (4), North Carolina (15), North Dakota (3) and South Dakota (3) moved out.



^ FIGURE 3a. This chart shows the strength of the projected electoral votes for each candidate outside of the margin of error (+/- 4.0%). A pie chart is used to illustrate the overall percentage of the electoral votes in each category. “Strong” means winning electoral votes from a state by a greater than 10% margin. “Weak” means winning electoral votes from a state by a margin of 5% to 9%. Any margin less than 5% is considered within the margin of error.



^ FIGURE 3b. This graph shows the weekly tracking of the five categories of strength for the electoral votes. The dark blue line is the weekly tracking for electoral votes within the Strong Obama category (Obama leading by 10% or greater). The light blue line is the weekly tracking for electoral votes within the Weak Obama category (Obama leading between 5% and 9%). The yellow line is the weekly tracking for electoral votes within the margin of error (either candidate leading by 4% or less). The pink line is the weekly tracking for electoral votes within the Weak McCain category (McCain leading between 5% and 9%). The red line is the weekly tracking for electoral votes within the Strong McCain category (McCain leading by 10% or greater).



^ FIGURE 3c. This chart shows the strength of the projected electoral votes for each candidate sorted into each category. “Strong” means winning electoral votes from a state by a greater than 10% margin. “Weak” means winning electoral votes from a state by a margin of 5% to 9%. Any margin less than 5% is considered within the margin of error and is referred to as “Lean.”




4. Electoral Votes Comparison to 2004

At this point in 2004, John Kerry was trailing George W. Bush 238 electoral votes to 291 electoral votes, with 9 tied. Bush was seeing quite a bounce from the republican convention, which had just concluded the preceding week four years ago.

Comparing Obama’s projection to Kerry’s in 2004, we see that Obama has 7 fewer Strong electoral votes now than Kerry had at this point then. But Obama has 16 more Weak electoral votes than Kerry had then. There are also 13 fewer electoral votes within the margin of error than there were at this point in 2004. Bush was stronger in 2004 than McCain is now, as Bush had 27 more Strong electoral votes then.



^ FIGURE 4a. Electoral-Vote.com is a valuable source for electoral vote tracking. This graph shows the electoral progress of the 2004 election between John Kerry and George Bush, along with descriptions of factors that seems to have changed the course of the race. I include on the left side a snapshot of the electoral vote projection for each candidate on this date back in 2004.



^ FIGURE 4b. This chart shows the strength of the projected electoral votes for each candidate outside of the margin of error (+/- 4.0%) on this date in 2004 (Kerry vs. Bush). A pie chart is used to illustrate the overall percentage of the electoral votes in each category. “Strong” means winning electoral votes from a state by a greater than 10% margin. “Weak means winning electoral votes from a state by a margin of 5% to 9%. Any margin less than 5% is considered within the margin of error.



^ FIGURE 4c. This graph shows Obama’s green line and red line from the previous graph, and compares it to John Kerry’s 2004 progress (orange line) as shown from Electoral-Vote.com. (Both the red line and the orange line show data from Electoral-Vote.com.) Trend lines are used to plot a possible route for these projections for the near future.




5. Popular Vote and National Polls

Obama is currently projected to win 45.8% of the popular vote, and he is trailing McCain by only 0.4%. Barr is taking 2.4% of the vote, while Nader is polling at 1.6% and McKinney is polling at 0.1%. The percentage of Undecideds dropped this week to 3.9%. Factoring in the swing states to get an idea how the Undecideds will vote, Obama’s projected popular vote margin slips to -1.0%.

The national daily tracking polls are a good indicator of the projected popular vote, and there is a correlation between the lead in popular vote and the probability of winning the electoral vote. A three-point lead in a national poll would correlate to a 97% probability of winning the electoral vote, according to FiveThirtyEight.com.

Trend lines for Obama’s lead in Gallup Daily Tracking, Rasmussen Daily Tracking and Real Clear Politics Average all fell this week. Looking at all these sources together, we can see that Obama is trailing in the popular vote in a range between 0% and -3%, according to the trends revealed by the national polls.



^ FIGURE 5a. This chart shows the percentage of the projected popular vote for each candidate with a percentage still undecided. A pie chart is used to illustrate the percentage of the projected 126,750,000 votes up for grabs this year.



^ FIGURE 5b. I am projecting 126,750,000 million votes on election day, which is the total 2004 votes plus population growth for each state. A total projected popular vote is calculated for each candidate based on projected votes on election day this year multiplied by each state’s current poll results. This graph shows the weekly tracking of the total popular vote percentages, and compares them to the final percentages received by past Democratic candidates. The scale is 0 to 100%, with a majority being 50%. Trend lines are used to plot a possible route for these projections for the next four weeks.



^ FIGURE 5c. I am projecting 126,750,000 million votes on election day, which is the total 2004 votes plus population growth for each state. A total projected popular vote is calculated for each candidate based on projected votes on election day this year multiplied by each state’s current poll results. This graph shows the daily tracking of the popular vote calculations in millions. The scale is between 0 and 126.75 (in millions), and a majority of votes (half) would be 63,375,000 votes. Trend lines are used to plot a possible route for these projections for the next seven days.



^ FIGURE 5d. The national daily tracking polls are indicators of the potential popular vote lead for a candidate. This graph compares the trend lines of Obama’s lead in the national daily tracking polls and averages with my projected trend line of Obama’s lead in the popular vote. The red line shows Obama’s trend lead over McCain from Gallup Daily Tracking polls. The purple line shows Obama’s trend lead over McCain from Rasmussen Daily Tracking polls (with leaners). The blue line shows Obama’s trend lead over McCain from Real Clear Politics’ aggregate state poll average. The dark green line shows Obama’s trend lead over McCain from my daily projection of each candidate’s popular vote, based on state polls and projected votes on election day in each state. The light green line shows my actual daily tracking of Obama’s popular vote lead over McCain. Taking all these daily tracking items together, we can see a true range of Obama’s lead over McCain over time and a possible trend for the future of this race.



^ FIGURE 5e. This graph from FiveThirtyEight.com shows a correlation between a candidate’s lead in the popular vote and that candidate’s probability of winning the electoral vote and the election, if the election were held today.



^ FIGURE 5f. This chart compares each polling agency’s latest polls with their averages for each candidate this year. The top section of the chart compares the Daily Tracking polls and my own projected popular vote for each candidate. The bottom section of the chart compares the National Tracking polls (usually released monthly). Each section is totaled and averaged, and an overall average is shown at the very bottom of the chart. The latest polls released for each polling agency are displayed in the center columns for each candidate, as well as Obama’s current lead in those polls (a negative number denotes Obama trailing McCain in that poll). The columns on the right show each polling agency’s averaged results since May 1.




6. Probabilities and Potentials

The difference between each candidate’s Potential Electoral Votes Advantage provides a keen insight into how they are doing against each other nationwide. Obama’s potential advantage is 59.9%, while McCain’s potential advantage is 59.9%. The difference in potential advantages is Obama +0.0% (down from +14.5% last week). McCain’s potential advantage rose by 5.1 percentage points this week, while Obama’s potential advantage fell by 9.4 percentage points.

At this point in 2004, Kerry’s potential advantage was 60.6% and Bush’s potential advantage was 59.9%. Kerry led Bush by 0.7% in potential advantages four years ago, compared to Obama’s +0.0% lead in potential advantages now.


Highly Probable Electoral Votes:
Obama – 140 … (26.0%)
McCain – 145 … (27.0%)

Probable Electoral Votes:
Obama – 216 … (40.1%)
McCain – 216 … (40.1%)

Potential Electoral Votes, Advantage Obama:
Obama – 322 … (59.9%)
McCain – 216 … (40.1%)

Potential Electoral Votes, Advantage McCain:
Obama – 216 … (40.1%)
McCain – 322 … (59.9%)

Blowout Electoral Votes, Advantage Obama:
Obama – 393 … (73.0%)
McCain – 145 … (27.0%)

Blowout Electoral Votes, Advantage McCain:
Obama – 140 … (26.0%)
McCain – 398 … (74.0%)


“Highly Probable” electoral votes are from states where each candidate is polling at >10% (Strong states only). “Probable” electoral votes are from states where each candidate is polling beyond the margin of error (Strong and Weak states).

“Potential” electoral votes are the same as probable states, but then we add the states polling within the margin of error to give one candidate an advantage. In this scenario, one candidate takes the states where they are polling strong and weak, and also takes all the margin-of-error states.

“Blowout” electoral votes would give one candidate only their strong states (>10%) and the other candidate would win all the other states. An example would be if Obama were to win in all his base states, all the swing states, and all the states where McCain was polling weak.




7. State Poll Averages Comparison

Obama’s aggregate average of all the state polls is 45.2% this week, down 0.1% from last week. Obama is behind Kerry’s finishing 46.5% state poll average, and also behind Gore’s finishing 46.1% state poll average.

McCain’s aggregate average of all the state polls is 46.6% this week, up 1.2% from last week. Obama now trails McCain in the aggregate state poll average by 1.4%.

It’s interesting to note that only one candidate from either party in the past four presidential elections managed to reach a 50.0% poll average majority, and that was George W. Bush in 2004 (50.7%). All other final results from all parties ended below 50.0%.


Comparison of State Poll-Averages:
2008 Obama – 45.2%
2004 Kerry – 46.5% (Final)
2000 Gore – 46.1% (Final)
1996 Clinton – 48.0% (Final)
1992 Clinton – 42.1% (Final)



^ FIGURE 7a. This graph shows the weekly tracking of the aggregate state poll averages for each candidate, and compares them to the final aggregate state poll averages received by past Democratic candidates. The scale is 0 to 100%, with a majority being 50%. Trend lines are used to plot a possible route for these projections for the next four weeks.




8. The Week in Trading and National Poll Averages

Gallup’s daily tracking average for Obama falls two percentage points to 45% this week, while Rasmussen’s daily tracking average for Obama drops three percentage points to 46%. The Real Clear Politics Average this week is 45.0% for Obama, which is a decrease of 1.6% from last week. Obama is now trailing McCain in Gallup by 2%, trailing by 3% in Rasmussen and trailing by 2.4% in RCP. Our Wigand Electoral Average fell from 53.72 last week to 48.14 this week for Obama, as Montana, North Dakota, Ohio and Virginia moved into McCain’s territory.

Obama’s Intrade shares closed at 47.9, down from 57.0 last week. His shares on Rasmussen Markets fell from 57.3 to 48.1 this week.

Overall trading for our 12 swing states plummets 91.50 this week to 494.90 for Obama, which is well below the majority mark of 600.00. No states gained ground in trading for Obama this week. No states stayed put, while losses were incurred for all twelve of the states. Obama is trailing McCain overall in our 12 swing states by a margin of 41.2% to 58.8%. This is down 7.7 percentage points from last week for Obama.



^ FIGURE 8a. The Wigand Electoral Average is our own indicator, and shows how the candidates will do if the undecideds nationwide break the same way as the swing states. Each of the twelve swing states are listed below the indicator’s current score. The closing figures on Intrade are shown next to each state, with a column to show the change from the previous day. The scale for these is 0 to 100, with 50 being a majority.



^ FIGURE 8b. This graph shows the daily tracking of the swing states total from the Wigand Electoral Average widget above (second chart from the top). The scale is 0 to 1200, with 600 being a majority. To show Obama’s progress in the swing states, divide the latest closing figure by 1200.



^ FIGURE 8c. Wigand vs. National Polls, RCP Average and Trading. The Wigand Electoral Average uses both poll averages and trading (swing states), and this graph compares it to the national daily tracking polls from Gallup, Rasmussen and Real Clear Politics (average), as well as the closing trading figures from Intrade (people buying shares with real money) and Rasmussen Markets (people using fake money).



^ FIGURE 8d. This graph shows the daily tracking of each swing state’s closing figure on Intrade. The scale is 0 to 100 with 50 being a majority. I commonly refer to the range from 40.00 to 60.00 as “The Zone” because the states in The Zone are true swing states this year.




9. This Week’s State Polls (Detail)


Alabama Obama 35, McCain 55 (AEA/Capital Survey, 9/9, +/- 4.0, 606 LV)
Alaska Obama 33, McCain 64 (Rasmussen, 9/9, +/- 4.5, 500 LV)
Colorado Obama 49, McCain 46, Barr 2 (Fox News/Rasmussen, 9/7, +/- 4.5, 500 LV)
Colorado Obama 47, McCain 46 (Public Policy Polling, 9/9, +/- 3.0, 1078 LV)
Colorado Obama 46, McCain 49 (Insider Advantage, 9/10, +/- 4.3, 501 LV)
Florida Obama 48, McCain 48, Nader 2 (Fox News/Rasmussen, 9/7, +/- 4.5, 500 LV)
Florida Obama 45, McCain 50 (Public Policy Polling, 9/7, +/- 3.1, 968 LV)
Florida Obama 43, McCain 50 (Quinnipiac University, 9/9, +/- 3.1, 1032 LV)
Florida Obama 42, McCain 50 (Insider Advantage, 9/10, +/- 4.3, 511 LV)
Georgia Obama 39, McCain 52 (Strategic Vision, 9/9, +/- 3.0, 800 LV)
Georgia Obama 38, McCain 56 (Insider Advantage, 9/10, +/- 4.5, 506 LV)
Idaho Obama 29, McCain 68 (Rasmussen, 9/9, +/- 4.5, 500 LV)
Maine Obama 52, McCain 38 (Research 2000/DailyKos, 9/10, +/- 4.0, 600 LV)
Maryland Obama 52, McCain 38 (Gonzales Research, 9/5, +/- 3.5, 833 LV)
Michigan Obama 47, McCain 46 (Public Policy Polling, 9/7, +/- 2.9, 1147 LV)
Michigan Obama 45, McCain 44 (Strategic Vision, 9/7, +/- 3.0, 800 LV)
Michigan Obama 49, McCain 45 (CNN/Time, 9/9, +/- 3.0, 966 RV)
Michigan Obama 44, McCain 45 (Insider Advantage, 9/10, +/- 4.3, 503 LV)
Michigan Obama 51, McCain 46 (Rasmussen, 9/10, +/- 4.0, 700 LV)
Mississippi Obama 37, McCain 55 (Research 2000/DailyKos, 9/10, +/- 4.0, 600 LV)
Missouri Obama 45, McCain 50 (CNN/Time, 9/9, +/- 3.0, 940 RV)
Missouri Obama 46, McCain 51 (Rasmussen, 9/11, +/- 4.0, 700 LV)
Montana Obama 42, McCain 53 (Rasmussen, 9/8, +/- 4.0, 700 LV)
Nevada Obama 45, McCain 46 (Insider Advantage, 9/10, +/- 4.2, 518 LV)
Nevada Obama 46, McCain 49 (Rasmussen, 9/11, +/- 4.0, 700 LV)
New Hampshire Obama 51, McCain 45 (CNN/Time, 9/9, +/- 3.5, 899 RV)
New Jersey Obama 47, McCain 41 (Farleigh Dickinson University, 9/7, +/- 3.3, 872 LV)
New Jersey Obama 48, McCain 45 (Marist Poll, 9/8, +/- 4.0, 584 LV)
New Mexico Obama 47, McCain 49 (Rasmussen, 9/8, +/- 4.0, 700 LV)
North Carolina Obama 46, McCain 49 (Garin Hart Yang, 9/7, +/- 4.0, 605 LV)
North Carolina Obama 38, McCain 58 (Survey USA, 9/8, +/- 3.8, 671 LV)
North Carolina Obama 44, McCain 48, Barr 4 (Public Policy Polling, 9/9, +/- 3.9, 626 LV)
North Carolina Obama 44, McCain 47 (Civitas/TelOpinion, 9/10, +/- 4.2, 600 RV)
North Carolina Obama 38, McCain 55 (Research 2000/DailyKos, 9/10, +/- 4.0, 600 LV)
North Dakota Obama 41, McCain 55 (Rasmussen, 9/8, +/- 4.5, 500 LV)
Ohio Obama 44, McCain 51, Nader 1 (Fox News/Rasmussen, 9/7, +/- 4.0, 600 LV)
Ohio Obama 44, McCain 48 (Strategic Vision, 9/7, +/- 3.0, 1200 LV)
Ohio Obama 49, McCain 44 (Quinnipiac University, 9/9, +/- 2.7, 1367 LV)
Ohio Obama 47, McCain 48 (Insider Advantage, 9/10, +/- 4.3, 503 LV)
Ohio Obama 44, McCain 48 (University of Cincinnati, 9/10, +/- 3.5, 775 LV)
Oklahoma Obama 32, McCain 65 (Survey USA, 9/7, +/- 3.7, 652 LV)
Oklahoma Obama 32, McCain 63 (Rasmussen, 9/11, +/- 4.5, 500 LV)
Oregon Obama 46, McCain 39, Barr 1, Nader 1 (Hoffman Research, 9/9, +/- 4.0, 600 RV)
Pennsylvania Obama 47, McCain 45, Barr 1, Nader 1 (Fox News/Rasmussen, 9/7, +/- 4.5, 500 LV)
Pennsylvania Obama 47, McCain 45 (Strategic Vision, 9/7, +/- 3.0, 1200 LV)
Pennsylvania Obama 48, McCain 45 (Quinnipiac University, 9/9, +/- 3.1, 1001 LV)
South Dakota Obama 37, McCain 54 (Rasmussen, 9/9, +/- 4.5, 500 LV)
Utah Obama 24, McCain 62 (Dan Jones & Associates, 9/10, +/- 5.0, 400 RV)
Virginia Obama 47, McCain 49 (Survey USA, 9/7, +/- 3.7, 717 LV)
Virginia Obama 47, McCain 49, Barr 1, Nader 1 (Fox News/Rasmussen, 9/7, +/- 4.5, 500 LV)
Virginia Obama 46, McCain 50 (CNN/Time, 9/9, +/- 3.0, 920 RV)
Washington Obama 46, McCain 38 (Elway Poll, 9/7, +/- 5.0, 405 RV)
Washington Obama 49, McCain 45 (Survey USA, 9/7, +/- 3.9, 658 LV)
Washington Obama 49, McCain 47 (Rasmussen, 9/10, +/- 4.5, 500 LV)
West Virginia Obama 39, McCain 44 (Blankenship Enterprises, 9/7, +/- 4.9, 432 LV)
Wisconsin Obama 46, McCain 43 (Strategic Vision, 9/7, +/- 3.0, 800 LV)
Wyoming Obama 39, McCain 58 (Rasmussen, 9/10, +/- 4.5, 500 LV)


Scale:
Strong Obama (10% or greater)
Weak Obama (5% to 9%)
Lean Obama (0% to 4%)
Lean McCain (0% to 4%)
Weak McCain (5% to 9%)
Strong McCain (10% or greater)



^ Probability of winning a state, found by cross-referencing a
candidate’s percentage lead with the poll’s margin of error.




10. States Ranked with High Undecideds and Outdated Polls


States with Undecideds 10% or Greater:
1. West Virginia – 15.4%
2. Rhode Island – 12.9%
4. Oregon – 11.4%
5. New York – 11.4%


States with Outdated Polls (Older Than 35 days):
Arkansas – Last Poll … 7/15
Connecticut – Last Poll … 7/31
Delaware – Last Poll … 2/28
Hawaii – Last Poll … 2/28
Massachusetts – Last Poll … 8/5
Nebraska – Last Poll … 7/28
South Carolina – Last Poll … 7/23
Vermont – Last Poll … 2/28




11. Sources and Links

THE MATH:
Read Last Week’s Edition
Monday’s Daily Widget
Tuesday’s Daily Widget
Wednesday’s Daily Widget
Thursday’s Daily Widget
Friday’s Daily Widget

Sources:
Pollster.com
FiveThirtyEight.com
Electoral-Vote.com
Intrade
Rasmussen Markets
RCP Average
RCP Latest Polls
Electionprojection.com


As always, I’m open to your feedback and suggestions, and I will be happy to explain anything! Feel free to use these charts and graphs anywhere on Democratic Underground.

Donate to the Obama Campaign today through DU’s donation link at Barack Obama’s website:
http://my.barackobama.com/page/outreach/view/main/du

[LARED]

1. Wow, nice work, thanks - nt

[phrigndumass]

3. yw :)

Good morning :hi:

[ColbertWatcher]

2. Good stuff! n/t

[phrigndumass]

4. thx :)

:hi:

[fight4my3sons]

5. Good Morning!

:hi: :bounce:

Stay safe in all that rain!

[phrigndumass]

7. Good afternoon :)

:hi: :hi: :bounce:

[grantcart]

6. if nothing changed - and next weeks poll will show the deflation of the Palin effect-

Obama simply needs to take one of the following IN OH VA FL NC MO


I think the odds of McCain keeping all 6 of these states is highly unlikely.

Obama could take 3-4 of them

[gratefultobelib]

8. You have MN in the strong Obama column, but today I heard it is a tie.

[phrigndumass]

12. Yes, that was the Star Tribune poll released today

Another poll (Survey USA) also released today is showing an Obama lead. Minnesota is seeing the effects of the republican convention bounce, but it'll come around in a week or two.

This thread was posted before those two new Minnesota polls were released.

:hi:

[grantcart]

21. CNN has them 12 points ahead - I don't think anybody is worried about MN

http://www.pollster.com/polls/mn/08-mn-pres-ge-mvo.php

[phrigndumass]

9. Good thoughts :)

Indiana will probably move further to the right, so I'm betting on Virginia and Ohio. Four years ago both states polled mostly red, but this year both states are polling mostly blue on average.

:hi:

[gratefultobelib]

10. Oops, the above was supposed to go to the OP. I do that all of the time!

[phrigndumass]

14. :)

I caught it :D

[Awsi Dooger]

18. States like Indiana, North Carolina and Missouri are fantasy island

You guys are doing a disservice to other posters by claiming we have any shot at all in states like that. It's disgraceful.

Sorry, but state polls are meaningless in many cases. If the state has too many conservatives, above 38% in a year like this, we have absolutely no shot unless Obama explodes his national margin to at least +5.

It's inane when state polls are evaluated as unique reference points. If they make no sense to the national margin those state polls are complete garbage.

[gratefultobelib]

11. You have MN in the strong Obama column, but today I heard it is a tie. Sorry--I'm very nervous.

[phrigndumass]

15. See Reply #12 above :)

It'll ease your nerves. :hi:

[gratefultobelib]

16. You're sweet but I'm never going to make it until Nov. 4!

[phrigndumass]

17. If you feel a panic attack coming on ...

feel free to PM me and I'll help ease your worries. :D

The state polls always lag behind the national polls by a week or two, so this is a normal convention bounce for the republicans. It happens every four years, and it's very predictable.

I'm surprised, really, that this is the best the McCain campaign can do with a convention bounce! It is proof that Obama has stronger support this year than Kerry had in 2004, and that McCain is a weaker candidate than Bush.

:hi:

[quiet.american]

29. Now that makes me feel better. :) nt

[gratefultobelib]

13. P.S. I believe I heard NH was also a tie. REALLY nervous am I!

[Lakerstan]

19. Bradley effect

Great stuff! Have you made any assumptions for the Bradley effect? It's somewhat of an unknown at this point.

[phrigndumass]

20. Increased minority turnout will counter any Bradley effect :)

The difference between Tom Bradley's polls and the actual results were minimal, about three to four percentage points. There will be an increase of approximately 10% this year among African American voters, and a possible 15% increase among Latino and Hispanic voters, as voter registration rolls are beginning to reveal. This will counter against any Bradley effect.

Jerry Brown, a white candidate who also ran for Governor of California, also experienced wild errors in exit polls, and the difference between his polls and the actual results was greater than that of Tom Bradley's. So it's not just a racial issue. It's more likely an "ashamed to be so conservative in California" issue, imo.

:hi:

[Doctor_J]

23. the turnout will be counteracted by the fact that most blacks are having their registration revoked

It will be nearly impossible for a black person to vote in November. I am hoping that the election fraud will result in cities being set on fire.

[Demeter]

22. Well, Lots of Fresh New Data Points

Too bad public opinion lags behind the ability to number crunch!

I think the economy, starting this week, will powerfully concentrate the minds of the condemned (us average Americans) and lead to some enlightened and change-driven decisions about how they are voting.

I'm keeping the faith--if only because it's so much better this time around. Compared to Kerry/Bush, we are winning.

[phrigndumass]

24. From what I read in your Weekend Economist thread, the Dow Jones will have a tough week

this week ... Bad news for my retirement and investment accounts, but good news for Obama's message on the economy.

So I'm keeping the faith, too!

:hi:

[psychmommy]

25. thanks for the numbers phrig

a little disappointing but, i know they get the convention bounce and i see it is not a big bounce. so i am going to remain encouraged. nj better get it into gear. i went to my daughters football game with voter registrations in hand. i gave out a few and everywhere i go i am gonna give those babies out. gotta work harder. you are very encouraging. thanks.

[phrigndumass]

28. Research 2000 released a New Jersey poll today showing Obama +9

Obama is very safe in New Jersey :D

[psychmommy]

30. yay . i feel much more encouraged now.

i am still handing out registrations like candy.

[quiet.american]

26. I was feeling great before I saw this, but thanks for your work. ;) nt

[phrigndumass]

27. yw :)

That's why I posted the other thread about not being nervous (you've already seen it) :hi:

http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=132x7067922

[phrigndumass]

31. Monday morning kick

:kick: