Apocalypse Later: Looking Back at 2008 from the Future

[marmar]

via AlterNet:



Apocalypse Later: Looking Back at 2008 from the Future

By John Feffer, Tomdispatch.com. Posted August 22, 2008.

A futurologist looks back at the public complacency of 2008 that led to disaster from the year 2016.



Being a futurologist means never having to say you're sorry. Our predictions always come true eventually -- or, if they don't, well, how quickly people forget. Look at Newsweek's George Will. He predicted that the Berlin Wall would endure, and in an article published on the very day in 1989 that the Germans were tearing it down. That should have been enough to revoke his futurology license and demote him to sports writing. But no, almost three decades later he's still peering into his crystal ball.

Never apologize, never look back: that's our motto.

But this time -- think of it as the exception that proves the rule -- I really screwed up. We all did.

If you look back at the predictions we made in 2008 about the United States and the world, you'll see just how wrong we were. Today, in 2016, it's time for a mea culpa on behalf of the profession. Both camps, you see, were wrong. The Chicken Littles who predicted dramatic catastrophe were just as far from the mark as the Panglossian utopians who predicted dramatic change for the better.

Of course we have our excuses. Our minds were clouded by eight years of the Bush administration's foreign policy -- if you can even call it that -- which obscured our vision like a stinging sandstorm. In those days, it was natural to believe one of two things. Either the world was going to end with a bang (and soon), or a new administration would come into office in 2009, open up all Washington's doors and windows, and give the place a good airing out.

No one anticipated what would really happen over the two terms of the Obama administration, even though that's the job of us futurologists -- and I was one of the best paid in the profession.

Where did we go wrong? How could I have been so blind? That's what I'm going to try my best to explain. .......(more)

The complete piece is at: http://www.alternet.org/environment/95976/apocalypse_later%3A_looking_back_at_2008_from_the_future/

[Prophet 451]

1. Horribly likely

The problem, as the author identifies, is that doing anything meaningful is going to require massive change, the kind of massive that scares electorates. You need a 50% (at least) reduction of the military budget and a total rethink of the beltway attitude that the US has the right and duty to run the world or, at very very least, a comittment to doing so through other means than the military. We all need a collosal effort to find alternative energy sources (and trust me, I'm shouting that at my own government as well).

I figure that if society collapses, I'll do fine. I can fish, hunt and brew beer, cider and applejack. I guess, in the absence of the kind of collosal change that we need, that would be my advice to everyone: Learn a skill that would be of use in a barter economy. Or become a priest, they always seem to do alright.

[Demeter]

2. Chicken Little Was Right!

The sky IS falling, and only the blind can't see it.

[Turbineguy]

3. Actually this is a good piece to send

to the RWnut of your choice under the title of, "Don't worry, you'll still get what you want!"

[northernlights]

4. sorry but

I find the article badly written and hopelessly stupid. Also very redundant. It assumes the government causes change. It doesn't. It can help it along or get in the way, but it doesn't cause it.

Yes, we will probably just muddle through, but it won't end up at all as they predict. The extreme left wing won't get their way, any more than the extreme right has totally gotten theirs. Believe it or not, that's for the best. Both extremes seem to be oblivious to a lot of realities. However, many progressive changes -- such as smaller and local, versus, say, factory farms and imported foods -- will be forced by circumstances, and that's a good thing.

The euro won't take over the dollar simply because Europe is in as bad financial shape than we are. The sad fact is when they were doing well, they needed a place to invest their money. The thieves that caused our housing meltdown suckered them too. So we're all going down together.

Our guv sort of reminds me of my dysfunctional family. We'd run into some stupid problem or another. My mother and father would start yelling and screaming at each other, "you should have..." I told you..." "how could I have known?" blah, blah.
My 2 sisters would join in, mommie's girl on her side, daddie's darlin' on his.

And I would quietly fix the effing problem and politely interrupt with, "um, it's fixed. it just needed blah, blah, blah."

That's what happens every day with the guv. While they're wasting time and resources on stupidity, a million smart little people out there are working on actual solutions.

With some government leadership in the right direction, instead of wasting a bazillion dollars on wars to protect the oil barons, the changes would have happened faster. But even the oil barons can't stop progress, only slow it down.

Alternative energy is already available, and the high price of oil is forcing change. Unlike the 70s though, I think this time the changes will stick. The people who wouldn't let the change stick before, because they profited from the old ways -- are literally on their way out. And there are enough people around from the middle generations -- who have seen this movie before, know the outcome of not fixing it once and for all, don't want to see the movie a 3rd time, and have the means and will to make deep changes -- will make permanent changes.

Solar is available today. The high price of oil makes old solar financially viable. New thin film technology -- just released this year -- made it cost-effective at last year's oil prices. At this year's, solar is ready to explode. This year its only available to large commercial operations. But it's also attracting serious investment, which will make it widely available and bring production costs down. That will free many of us from the grid. Newer solar plus artificial hydrolysis will be here within 10 years.

Wind is here today. I know this because T. Boone Pickens says so.

Electric cars will be commercially available within 2 years, courtesy of Tesla. They'll initially be available at the high end, but that will restart the industry, and then the low end (most of us) will be able to follow.

Canada is working on tidal energy in the Bay of Fundy. Another alternative for coastal areas.

Change will happen. And, as Obama has already said, it will happen because we at the bottom change how we think and how we behave, not because of anything the guv says or does.