U.S., Israel Attack On Iran Unlikely: Stratfor Founder

[Purveyor]

NEW YORK (Reuters) - The chances of a U.S. or Israeli attack on Iran's nuclear facilities is remote because the risks to the global economy far outweigh potential benefits, according to the founder and head of global intelligence company Stratfor, Barron's reported on Sunday.

The U.S. stance that "all options are on the table" regarding Iran has in fact had a salutary effect on the U.S.-Iran relationship, Stratfor's George Friedman told Barron's, adding that the two countries even have taken steps toward diplomatic rapprochement after 29 years of enmity.

Friedman, whose company's clients include mega-retailer Wal-Mart Inc as well as media outlets and government agencies, told Barron's that the United States and Israel are likely using "psychological warfare" rather than preparing for the real thing.

An attack on Iran would likely result in Iran attacking oil tankers and mining the Strait of Hormuz, through which 40 percent of all seaborne-traded crude oil traffic passes each day, Friedman told Barron's.

The United States likely would "make short work" of Iran's shore-based missile batteries and attack ships, Friedman said, but demining operations would take longer to handle, he told Barron's. In the meantime, shipping insurance and tanker lease rates would soar, he added.

"This is what could drive crude oil prices to more than $300 a barrel, which even over a short period would be cataclysmic to the global economy and stock markets," Friedman told Barron's.

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REUTERS: http://www.reuters.com/article/newsMaps/idUSN0344178120080803

[still_one]

1. There will be no attack by Israel on Iran or Iran on Israel

It is in neither countries interest

Keeping the inuendos going is good for oil prices and some political agendas

[bemildred]

2. This is drivel.

Mere rational considerations have not affected Bushite decisions in the past, and the notion that a belligerent attitude towards Iran has led to positive results is simply propaganda, completely ignorant of the facts and intentions of past Iran-policy, and the results that ensued.

[spin]

3. If Israel fears a nuclear attack from Iran...

the last thing they will worry about is the global economy.

It's quite possible the Bush administration will help the Israelis either directly or indirectly. When Iran closes the Strait of Hormuz the United States will almost certainly have to act.

I've always suspected that the war in Iraq was an effort by the Bush administration to create a powerful military presence near Iran with the intention of using it in a war.

If I'm right, Bush is running out of time. And if Israel wants our help they are also running out of time.