http://www.huffingtonpost.com/arianna-huffington/obamas-trip-bounce-the-me_b_115440.htmlObama's Trip Bounce: The Media's Obsession with Polls Leads to a Bad Case of Premature Pontification
Arianna Huffington
Posted July 28, 2008 | 04:54 PM (EST)
Isn't it strange that Barack Obama didn't get a bounce from his wildly well-received overseas trip? Oh wait, maybe he did. But, hey, it was just a small bounce. Or was it more of a bump? Perhaps a bouncelet? A hop? A ricochet? A swelling? Or was it a rash? In which case, if it persists for more than two weeks, should he see an electoral professional, or just declare victory?
Of course, almost all of this analysis is based on polls taken before the end of Obama's trip -- a serious case of premature pontification.
But that didn't stop many in the media from weighing in, building edifices of soaring opinion on the shakiest of data.
snip//
In about 13 weeks, the only poll that really matters will be taken -- among 142 million registered voters, and not 900 people so bored with life they are willing to interrupt their dinner to talk to a pollster.
But until then, since the media will no doubt continue to subject us to day after day of polling results and highly suspect analysis, can they at least make it clear precisely what kind of polling data they are basing their analysis on? What is the response rate on the poll? Is it a poll of "likely voters" or "registered voters"? What is the breakdown of Democrats, Republicans, and independents?
I'm fine with people using polls as an amusement or as a fun way to start a dinnertime conversation, but to run around making grand statements based on dubious data is the height of foolishness. It's beyond time to break the cycle.
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