THE MATH Weekly – For the Week Ending Sunday, July 13 – Obama 402, McCain 135

[phrigndumass]

THE MATH Weekly – For the Week Ending Sunday, July 13, 2008


Contents:
1. Current Stats
2. Electoral Votes
3. Strength of Electoral Votes
4. Electoral Votes Comparison to 2004
5. Popular Vote and National Daily Tracking Polls
6. Probabilities and Potentials
7. Poll Averages Comparison
8. The Week in Trading and Poll Averages
9. This Week’s State Polls (Detail)
10. States Ranked with High Undecideds and Outdated Polls
11. Sources and Links


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1. Current Stats

“Holy Crap,” you might be saying to yourself. “402 electoral votes for Obama?! No freaking way!” To be honest, it made me rub my eyes and double-check literally everything on the spreadsheet. The data is accurate.

But …

It’s important to remember that these projections are a “snapshot” of how Obama would do if the election were held today. Election Day is almost four months away, and there will be regression between now and then; there always is for the candidate in the lead. As Election Day approaches, the leading candidate’s electoral projection usually moves closer to the center. It might not, but it usually does, given the historical aspect of elections. But it’s nicer to commence that regression from 402 rather than, say, 300.

The significant changes occurring this week are that Florida and Missouri are both now polling with small Obama leads. However, more states moved into the margin of error than moved out this week. There are now 176 electoral votes (out of 538 total) within the margin of error, or 32.7% of the total. Fifteen states comprise these 176 electoral votes, the biggest of which are Florida, Pennsylvania, Ohio, New Jersey and Georgia. And although McCain is beginning to improve in the national tracking polls, his piece of the electoral pie is becoming smaller and smaller.

NOTE: These results won’t happen unless we work hard for Democrats in 2008!


Election Day: Tuesday, November 4, 2008


Number of Days Until the Election: 115 days


Current Projected Electoral Votes:
Obama – 402
McCain – 135
Needed to Win – 270


Current Projected Popular Vote:
Obama – 60,383,863 … (47.7%) … (+6,277,396)
McCain – 54,106,467 … (42.7%)
Barr – 2,481,072 … (2.0%)
Nader – 1,223,545 … (1.0%)
Undecided/Other – 8,526,051 … (6.7%)


Swing States Leaning:
Obama – 55.44%
McCain – 44.56%


Projected Popular Vote if Undecideds Break the Same as Swing States:
Obama – 65,110,000 … (51.2%) … (+7,200,000)
McCain – 57,910,000 … (45.7%)
All Others – 3,701,000 … (3.1%)


Probability of Obama Win – 91.7% (if the election were held today)


Strength of Projection – 79.7%



^ This is what we refer to as the “Widget”. In the white section, it shows Obama’s and McCain’s electoral vote projection from three different sources. 270 would be a majority. In the yellow section, it shows three sources of trading and averages for the candidates. The scale for these is 0 to 100, with 50 being a majority. Intrade shows the trading, while RCP-av shows the aggregate average of all the state polls. The Wigand Electoral Average is our own indicator, and shows how the candidates will do if the undecideds nationwide break the same way as the swing states.



^ This chart shows the seats projected to be picked up by Democrats in November in Congress. The projection is from Electionprojection.com.





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2. Electoral Votes (270 needed to win)

Obama is currently winning 44% of the electoral votes outside of the margin of error, compared to McCain’s 23%. The number of electoral votes within the margin of error, however, keeps increasing. It grows to one-third of the total this week. Once we consider Obama’s lead in the swing states (55%-45%) and add how well he is doing in the states within the margin of error (momentum), his electoral vote projection increases to 402. The electoral vote projections from other sources also show big Obama leads.



^ This chart shows the projected electoral votes for each candidate outside of the margin of error (+/- 4.0%). A pie chart is used to illustrate the percentage of the total 538 electoral votes up for grabs this year.



^ This graph shows the daily tracking of Obama’s projected electoral votes from three sources. 270 is a majority of the electoral votes. The blue line shows daily tracking from 538.com, which projects what the outcome should be on election day. The red line shows daily tracking from Electoral-Vote.com, which shows a current snapshot of Obama’s electoral progress if the undecideds break evenly. The green line is my own projection, and it shows a current snapshot of Obama’s electoral progress if the undecideds break the same way as the swing states. A trend line is used (dashed green line) to show the average progress since May 19 and the possible route for the next seven days.


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3. Strength of Electoral Votes

The states within the margin of error grew by 32 electoral votes this week, up from 144 electoral votes to 176 electoral votes. New Jersey (15) switched from Strong Obama to within the margin of error (leaning Obama). Florida (27) and Missouri (11) both changed from Weak McCain to within the margin of error (leaning Obama). Washington (11) moved from Strong Obama to Weak Obama. And Zogby tells us that both South Carolina and Arkansas are now within the margin of error. (Let’s take that last bit of information with a grain of salt, as we would like more proof of this.)



^ This chart shows the strength of the projected electoral votes for each candidate outside of the margin of error (+/- 4.0%). A pie chart is used to illustrate the overall percentage of the electoral votes in each category. “Strong” means winning electoral votes from a state by a greater than 10% margin. “Weak means winning electoral votes from a state by a margin of 5% to 9%. Any margin less than 5% is considered within the margin of error.



^ This graph shows the weekly tracking of the five categories of strength for the electoral votes. The dark blue line is the weekly tracking for electoral votes within the Strong Obama category (Obama leading by 10% or greater). The light blue line is the weekly tracking for electoral votes within the Weak Obama category (Obama leading between 5% and 9%). The yellow line is the weekly tracking for electoral votes within the margin of error (either candidate leading by 4% or less). The pink line is the weekly tracking for electoral votes within the Weak McCain category (McCain leading between 5% and 9%). The red line is the weekly tracking for electoral votes within the Strong McCain category (McCain leading by 10% or greater).


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4. Electoral Votes Comparison to 2004

At this point in 2004, John Kerry was leading George W. Bush 292 electoral votes to 246 electoral votes, with no ties. It was shortly after this day in 2004 that John Kerry chose John Edwards as his running mate, and they went on a 45-day streak of leading in the race. Their high point during the campaign came in mid-July, when Kerry was projected at 330 electoral votes. Then the attacks on Kerry came non-stop.

Comparing Obama’s projection to Kerry’s in 2004, we see that Obama has about 65 more Strong electoral votes now than Kerry had at this point then. But Kerry had about 95 more Weak electoral votes than Obama has now. There are also about 110 more electoral votes within the margin of error than there were at this point in 2004. Bush was much stronger in 2004 than McCain is now, as Bush had 85 more Strong electoral votes then.



^ Electoral-Vote.com is a valuable source for electoral vote tracking. This graph shows the electoral progress of the 2004 election between John Kerry and George Bush, along with descriptions of factors that seems to have changed the course of the race. I include on the left side a snapshot of the electoral vote projection for each candidate on this date back in 2004.



^ This chart shows the strength of the projected electoral votes for each candidate outside of the margin of error (+/- 4.0%) on this date in 2004 (Kerry vs. Bush). A pie chart is used to illustrate the overall percentage of the electoral votes in each category. “Strong” means winning electoral votes from a state by a greater than 10% margin. “Weak means winning electoral votes from a state by a margin of 5% to 9%. Any margin less than 5% is considered within the margin of error.



^ This graph shows Obama’s green line and red line from the previous graph, and compares it to John Kerry’s 2004 progress (orange line) as shown from Electoral-Vote.com. (Both the red line and the orange line show data from Electoral-Vote.com.) Trend lines are used to plot a possible route for these projections for the near future.


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5. Popular Vote and National Daily Tracking Polls

Obama is currently projected to win 47.7% of the popular vote, and he is ahead of McCain by 5.0%. Barr is picking up steam this week, taking 2.0% of the vote, while Nader grabs a full one percent. Obama is currently only 0.6% behind where Kerry finished in 2004, and 0.7% behind where Gore finished in 2000, without even considering any of the remaining 6.7% undecideds.

The national daily tracking polls are a good indicator of the projected popular vote, and there is a correlation between the lead in popular vote and the probability of winning the electoral vote. A three-point lead in a national poll would correlate to a 97% probability of winning the electoral vote, according to FiveThirtyEight.com.

Trend lines for Obama’s lead in Gallup Daily Tracking and Real Clear Politics Average are beginning to level off, while the trend line for Obama’s lead in Rasmussen begins to drop this week. Looking at all these sources together, however, we can see that Obama’s lead in the popular vote ranges between 3.2% and 6.4% over McCain, according to the trends revealed by the national polls.



^ This chart shows the percentage of the projected popular vote for each candidate with a percentage still undecided. A pie chart is used to illustrate the percentage of the projected 126,750,000 votes up for grabs this year.



^ I am projecting 126,750,000 million votes on election day, which is the total 2004 votes plus population growth for each state. A total projected popular vote is calculated for each candidate based on projected votes on election day this year multiplied by each state’s current poll results. This graph shows the weekly tracking of the total popular vote percentages, and compares them to the final percentages received by past Democratic candidates. The scale is 0 to 100%, with a majority being 50%. Trend lines are used to plot a possible route for these projections for the next four weeks.



^ I am projecting 126,750,000 million votes on election day, which is the total 2004 votes plus population growth for each state. A total projected popular vote is calculated for each candidate based on projected votes on election day this year multiplied by each state’s current poll results. This graph shows the daily tracking of the popular vote calculations in millions. The scale is between 0 and 126.75 (in millions), and a majority of votes (half) would be 63,375,000 votes. Trend lines are used to plot a possible route for these projections for the next seven days.



^ The national daily tracking polls are indicators of the potential popular vote lead for a candidate. This graph compares the trend lines of Obama’s lead in the national daily tracking polls and averages with my projected trend line of Obama’s lead in the popular vote. The red line shows Obama’s trend lead over McCain from Gallup Daily Tracking polls. The purple line shows Obama’s trend lead over McCain from Rasmussen Daily Tracking polls (with leaners). The blue line shows Obama’s trend lead over McCain from Real Clear Politics’ aggregate state poll average. The dark green line shows Obama’s trend lead over McCain from my daily projection of each candidate’s popular vote, based on state polls and projected votes on election day in each state. The light green line shows my actual daily tracking of Obama’s popular vote lead over McCain. Taking all these daily tracking items together, we can see a true range of Obama’s lead over McCain over time and a possible trend for the future of this race.



^ This graph from FiveThirtyEight.com shows a correlation between a candidate’s lead in the popular vote and that candidate’s probability of winning the electoral vote and the election, if the election were held today.


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6. Probabilities and Potentials

The difference between each candidate’s Potential Electoral Votes Advantage provides a keen insight into how they are doing against each other nationwide. Obama’s potential advantage is 76.8%, while McCain’s potential advantage is only 55.9%. The difference in potential advantages is Obama +20.8% (up from +16.4% last week). McCain’s potential advantage increased by 0.7 percentage points this week, while Obama’s potential advantage increased by 5.2 percentage points.

At this point in 2004, Kerry’s potential advantage was 61.9% and Bush’s potential advantage was 50.6%. Kerry led Bush by +10.3% in potential advantages four years ago, compared to Obama’s +20.8% lead in potential advantages now.


Highly Probable Electoral Votes:
Obama – 178 … (33.1%)
McCain – 70 … (13.0%)

Probable Electoral Votes:
Obama – 237 … (44.1%)
McCain – 125 … (23.2%)

Potential Electoral Votes, Advantage Obama:
Obama – 413 … (76.8%)
McCain – 125 … (23.2%)

Potential Electoral Votes, Advantage McCain:
Obama – 237 … (44.1%)
McCain – 301 … (55.9%)

Blowout Electoral Votes, Advantage Obama:
Obama – 468 … (87.0%)
McCain – 70 … (13.0%)

Blowout Electoral Votes, Advantage McCain:
Obama – 178 … (33.1%)
McCain – 360 … (66.9%)


“Highly Probable” electoral votes are from states where each candidate is polling at >10% (Strong states only). “Probable” electoral votes are from states where each candidate is polling beyond the margin of error (Strong and Weak states).

“Potential” electoral votes are the same as probable states, but then we add the states polling within the margin of error to give one candidate an advantage. In this scenario, one candidate takes the states where they are polling strong and weak, and also takes all the margin-of-error states.

“Blowout” electoral votes would give one candidate only their strong states (>10%) and the other candidate would win all the other states. An example would be if Obama were to win in all his base states, all the swing states, and all the states where McCain was polling weak.


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7. Poll Averages Comparison

Obama’s aggregate average of all the state polls is 46.9% this week, up from 46.7% last week. He has now surpassed where both Kerry and Gore finished their races. Kerry ended his presidential race with a 46.5% state poll average, and Gore finished with a 46.1% state poll average. There is still quite a way to go to match Bill Clinton’s 1996 final result of 48.0%.

It’s interesting to note that only one candidate from either party in the past four presidential elections managed to reach a 50.0% poll average majority, and that was George W. Bush in 2004 (50.7%). All other final results from all parties ended below 50.0%.


Comparison of Poll-Averages:
2008 Obama – 46.9%
2004 Kerry – 46.5% (Final)
2000 Gore – 46.1% (Final)
1996 Clinton – 48.0% (Final)
1992 Clinton – 42.1% (Final)



^ This graph shows the weekly tracking of the aggregate state poll averages for each candidate, and compares them to the final aggregate state poll averages received by past Democratic candidates. The scale is 0 to 100%, with a majority being 50%. Trend lines are used to plot a possible route for these projections for the next four weeks.


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8. The Week in Trading and Poll Averages

Gallup’s daily tracking average for Obama stays put at 47% this week, while Rasmussen’s daily tracking average for Obama drops two percentage points to 47%. The Real Clear Politics Average this week is 46.8% for Obama, down from 48.5% last week. Obama now leads McCain in averages by 4% in Gallup, by 1% in Rasmussen, and by 4.2% in RCP. Our Wigand Electoral Average jumped from 55.76 last week to 60.78 this week for Obama, as Florida and Missouri moved back into Obama’s territory.

Obama’s Intrade shares closed at 65.0, down from 65.1 last week. His shares on Rasmussen Markets bumps up from 67.0 to 67.2 this week.

Overall trading for our 12 swing states begins to decrease a bit, dropping a tiny 1.90 this week to 665.30 for Obama, but it remains strong above the majority mark of 600.00. The states gaining ground in trading for Obama this week are: North Carolina, Ohio and South Carolina. Michigan, Nebraska, New Mexico and Pennsylvania all stay put, while small losses were incurred for Colorado, Indiana, Iowa, Missouri and Wisconsin. Obama is doing better than McCain overall in our 12 swing states by a margin of 55.4% to 44.6%.



^ The Wigand Electoral Average is our own indicator, and shows how the candidates will do if the undecideds nationwide break the same way as the swing states. Each of the twelve swing states are listed below the indicator’s current score. The closing figures on Intrade are shown next to each state, with a column to show the change from the previous day. The scale for these is 0 to 100, with 50 being a majority.



^ This graph shows the daily tracking of the swing states total from the Wigand Electoral Average widget above (second chart from the top). The scale is 0 to 1200, with 600 being a majority. It is currently at 671.70 (the highest it has ever been). To show Obama’s progress in the swing states, divide the latest closing figure (671.70) by 1200. Obama is winning the swing states by 55.98%, compared to 44.02% for McCain.



^ This graph shows the daily tracking of each swing state’s closing figure on Intrade. The scale is 0 to 100 with 50 being a majority. I commonly refer to the range from 40.00 to 60.00 as “The Zone” because the states in The Zone are true swing states this year.



^ Wigand vs. Trading. The Wigand Electoral Average uses both poll averages and trading (swing states), and this graph compares it to the closing trading figures from Intrade (people buying shares with real money) and Rasmussen Markets (people using fake money).



^ Wigand vs. National Polls. The Wigand Electoral Average uses both poll averages and trading (swing states), and this graph compares it to the national tracking polls from Gallup, Rasmussen and Real Clear Politics (average).


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9. This Week’s State Polls (Detail)

Alabama – Obama 36.4, McCain 48.8 (AEA/Capital Survey, 7/1, +/- 4.3, 536 LV)
Arkansas – Obama 41, McCain 39, Barr 4, Nader 1 (Zogby Interactive, 6/21, +/- 4.7, 461 LV) (Zero weight given, replaces outdated poll dated February 28)
Florida – Obama 47.2, McCain 44.5 (War Room Logistics, 7/8, +/- 4.0, 629 RV)
Illinois – Obama 52, McCain 32, Barr 5, Nader 1 (Zogby Interactive, 6/21, +/- 2.6, 1514 LV) (Zero weight given, replaces outdated poll dated February 28)
Illinois – Obama 52, McCain 41 (Rasmussen, 7/8, +/- 4.5, 500 LV)
Kansas – Obama 36, McCain 49 (TargetPoint-R, 7/1, +/- 2.0, 3004 RV)
Maryland – Obama 54, McCain 30, Barr 6, Nader 1 (Zogby Interactive, 6/21, +/- 3.3, 924 LV) (Zero weight given, replaces outdated poll dated April 3)
Missouri – Obama 45, McCain 50 (Rasmussen, 7/7, +/- 4.5, 500 LV)
Missouri – Obama 44, McCain 47 (Public Policy Polling, 7/5, +/- 3.6, 723 LV)
Missouri – Obama 48, McCain 43 (Research 2000, 7/10, +/- 3.5, 800 LV)
New Jersey – Obama 47, McCain 44 (Rasmussen, 7/7, +/- 4.5, 500 LV)
North Dakota – Obama 46, McCain 47 (Rasmussen, 7/8, +/- 4.5, 500 LV)
South Carolina – Obama 42, McCain 41, Barr 6, Nader 1 (Zogby Interactive, 6/21, +/- 4.0, 630 LV) (Zero weight given, replaces outdated poll dated June 2)
Washington – Obama 51, McCain 43 (Rasmussen, 7/9, +/- 4.5, 500 LV)
Wisconsin – Obama 52, McCain 42 (Rasmussen, 7/8, +/- 4.5, 500 LV)



^ Probability of winning a state, found by cross-referencing a
candidate’s percentage lead with the poll’s margin of error.


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10. States Ranked with High Undecideds and Outdated Polls


States with Undecideds 10% or Greater:
1. West Virginia – 16.4%
2. Arkansas – 15.4%
3. Alabama – 13.3%
4. Kentucky – 12.6%
5. South Dakota – 12.4%
6. Kansas – 11.9%
7. Tennessee – 11.8%
8. Utah – 10.3%
9. Pennsylvania – 10.1%
10. South Carolina – 10.0%


States with Outdated Polls (Older Than 35 days):
Delaware – Last Poll … 2/28
Hawaii – Last Poll … 2/28
Idaho – Last Poll … 2/28
South Dakota – Last Poll … 4/3
Vermont – Last Poll … 2/28
West Virginia – Last Poll – 6/2
Wyoming – Last Poll … 5/21


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11. Sources and Links

THE MATH:
Read Last Week’s Edition
Monday’s Daily Widget
Tuesday’s Daily Widget
Wednesday’s Daily Widget
Thursday’s Daily Widget
Friday’s Daily Widget

Sources:
Pollster.com
FiveThirtyEight.com
Electoral-Vote.com
Intrade
Rasmussen Markets
RCP Average
RCP Latest Polls
Electionprojection.com


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As always, I’m open to your feedback and suggestions, and I will be happy to explain anything!

Feel free to use these charts and graphs anywhere on Democratic Underground.

Donate to the Obama Campaign today through DU’s donation link at Barack Obama’s website:
http://my.barackobama.com/page/outreach/view/main/du

[fight4my3sons]

1. Good evening!

I sound like a vampire :rofl:

That's a lot of information. I have to reread a few times and digest it. I might have some questions. Thank you, as always. :)

[phrigndumass]

2. Hiya f4m3s!

Blood drinking in the Editorials forum is frowned upon, but it's welcome in GDP! :D

Thanks! :hi: :pals:

[NYC_SKP]

3. Can we please also take Louisiana? Huh? Please?

I want to see a pretty column of blue states running all the way from Canada to Mexico.

:hi:

[phrigndumass]

4. That would be nice to see!

:hi:

[fight4my3sons]

6. Questions about polling

Is there any rhyme or reason to when they do polling? Why have they let it gone for so long in some of the states? For example, I'm wondering when they will do another one here in Maine for the senate race. Some of those you listed as outdated are really outdated.

[phrigndumass]

10. Pretty soon they will all be on 30-day cycles, but it's early yet

Polling agencies like to keep their numbers current so they can report on the big picture. But since it's July, they haven't begun cycling all the states through yet. They are paying more attention to the swing states at the moment, because that's where the money is for their information.

Here are all the polls for the Maine Senate race so far:
http://www.pollster.com/08-ME-Sen-GE-CvA.php

Rasmussen is showing Collins dipping below 50% as of June 16. I'm sure they'll want to release another senate poll soon to confirm that, since the poll before that was on May 14. Looks like about a 35-day cycle for polling that race.

:hi:

[fight4my3sons]

12. Thank you

:hi:

[Hope And Change]

5. K & R!

[Doctor_J]

7. Can you give me a 3-sentence summary of how this jibes with Newsweak's

assertion that the race is tied?

[phrigndumass]

8. Yes, with an illustration to boot!

The national polls are a good indicator of the projected popular vote, but they really don't help directly with projecting the electoral vote. Electoral votes win elections, popular votes don't. By looking at the graph below, we can see that Newsweek's previous poll showing an Obama 15-point lead must have been an outlier, because it was nowhere near the stream of trend lines. Their new poll showing an Obama 3-point lead is closer to the current stream, but slightly on the low side. The national polls use huge samples, so the margin of error is usually +/- 2%. Obama's 3% lead is beyond the margin of error.



(please forgive the MS Paint, lol)

:hi:

[On the Road]

9. This Graph is Really Striking:

The swing from 49% to 51% changes the chance of winning the election from by roughly 45%. Explains a lot about presidential elections.

[phrigndumass]

11. FiveThirtyEight.com is a wealth of information

That's where the graph came from. That graph caught my attention this week, and I devoted a Daily Widget post to it with regard to the popular vote.

http://journals.democraticunderground.com/phrigndumass/114

:hi:

[jtrockville]

13. I love this! I'm closely following ARIZONA:

From last week's DU The Math:
Arizona – Obama 40, McCain 49 (Rasmussen, 6/25, +/- 4.5, 500 LV)

Zogby today is showing Arizona as:
Obama - 42%
McCain - 39%

Do you know how often Rasmussen polls the states? (When will they poll Arizona again)?

[phrigndumass]

14. It would be nice to pull the rug out from under McCain in Arizona :)

Rasmussen's Arizona polls look like they were being conducted two months apart. I'm willing to bet they release another Arizona poll before the end of July, since their last one showed Obama closing in.

All polls for Arizona from Pollster.com:
http://www.pollster.com/08-AZ-Pres-GE-MvO.php

The Zogby poll for Arizona was an online members-only survey, so it needs to be taken with a grain of salt. I'd love to see another polling agency confirm an Obama in Arizona lead, though!

:hi:

[jtrockville]

15. Ah, didn't realize that about Zogby's AZ poll...

But a blue AZ is sure an exciting thought.

[Demeter]

16. Okay, You Finally Went to 400

Now, be ready for 450!

[phrigndumass]

17. Har! I thought of you when I saw that number, lol

I don't see it going that high, but I hope I'm wrong! :hi: