Spiegel: Lawrence Kaplan interview: 'I Don't See Anything Good That Has Come from this War"

[laststeamtrain]

'I Don't See Anything Good That Has Come from this War"

In 2003, Lawrence Kaplan, a leading neoconservative, helped deliver arguments that justified the invasion of Iraq. Afterwards, he spent two years in the war zone. It changed his view: "You can't help but be much more cautious with the ideas you put on the table," he tells SPIEGEL ONLINE in an interview.

SPIEGEL ONLINE: Mr. Kaplan, in a recent publication, the US National Defense University described the Iraq War as a "major debacle." According to the latest statistics, 500 insurgent attacks are still taking place each week. Still, you are convinced that there is a "learning curve" for the US Army in Iraq. What exactly has been learned?

Kaplan: One attack is one too many. But a while ago there were 500 attacks a day. So empirically, the situation has approved -- whether measured in terms of Iraqi cilivans killed or Americal soldiers attacked, insurgents captured or the number of intelligence tip-offs. The political situation, admittedly, remains a disaster. These tactical improvements are not a sufficient condition for true progress, but a necessary one. They came about because the American operational concept has shifted 180 degrees.

SPIEGEL ONLINE: How exactly?

Kaplan: We've gone from essentially fighting World War II with big unit sweeps and liberal expenditure of fire power and alienation of the population to trying to secure and protect the population and engage in tribal diplomacy. Al-Qaida has also overplayed its hand with the tribes. These days, the US military is much closer to the population and one result is a huge spike in intelligence. This strategic reversal was brought about by General David Petraeus. However, having wasted four years making things worse, naturally the American public is exhausted. So this new strategy, as fruitful as it is, will not be given time to work.

SPIEGEL ONLINE: Was the increase in US troups at the start of 2007 also partially responsible for the progress you describe?

Kaplan: This is the subject of fierce debate in the US -- because to ascribe progress to the "surge" means to say that George W. Bush did something right. I think it is impossible to disentangle the progress that comes from the tribes switching sides, from the new American strategy, from the fact that Shiite radical Muqtada al-Sadr has stood down and the surge. My sense is that the influx of 30,000 new American forces holds the least explanatory power. Most important were the tribes. And their switching sides predates the surge.

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http://www.spiegel.de/international/world/0,1518,551828,00.html

[bemildred]

1. Wounded pundit trying to maintain some shreds of credibility.

This guy is an amazing bullshitter.