The Audacity of Populism
By Mark Weisbrot, AlterNet. Posted April 7, 2008.
If Obama convinces white working-class voters that he cares about their economic plight, he will become the 44th President of the United States.
Eighty-one percent of Americans now agree that "things have pretty seriously gotten off on the wrong track," the most since this question has been asked and a remarkable preponderance of pessimism by any comparison.
And this recession is only beginning; real home prices have dropped only about 13 percent, since peak) after rising 70 percent (in real, inflation-adjusted terms) from trend levels until mid-2006. There is a long way to go before we see a sustained recovery.
The combination of a long, deeply unpopular war and what looks like it will be the worst recession in at least 25 years -- and possibly much longer -- carries the potential for serious political upheaval. It would take political incompetence of the highest order for the Democrats not to score significant gains in Congress and win the presidency in November.
But first Barack Obama, the likely Democratic candidate, has to clinch the nomination. The experts agree that if he wins Pennsylvania on April 22, the race will be effectively over.
His major obstacle is the race issue, and this will probably be true for the general election. The white working-class voters that will swing Pennsylvania in the Democratic primary will probably also be the swing voters in the general election (if it turns out to be a close election). The whole flap about Obama's pastor, Jeremiah A. Wright, was mainly a means of introducing race into the campaign.
Obama's brilliant speech on March 18, which confronted the issue head-on, elevated the level of discussion and managed to win high praise from both the New York Times (which had endorsed Clinton) and the Washington Post (an early and strong supporter of the Iraq war) editorial boards. This was no mean feat. But there is only a limited amount of education about race and racism that can take place during an election campaign -- in fact we may have already seen most of it.
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