Martin Woollacott (Guardian Utd): Iran's die-hards will dump democracy

[Jack Rabbit]

From the Guardian Unlimited (UK)
Dated Friday February 13

Iran's die-hards will dump democracy - if the US helps
Washington looks ready to strike a bargain with the rump republic
By Martin Woollacott

The tattered double act that has been Iranian politics in recent years is finally shuffling off the stage, and nobody knows what will follow. Campaigning for elections to the Iranian parliament began yesterday but it is unworthy of the name, since the vast majority of candidates are from the conservative wing of the political class. The reformists, who have symbolised and disappointed the hopes of most Iranians since Mohammad Khatami was elected president in 1997, have either been banned from standing or are boycotting the elections, with insignificant exceptions. Conservative slogans promise a parliament to "serve the nation, not create tensions within it". But what is in prospect is a parliament elected on a shamefully low turnout and a political system stripped of legitimacy.
Even in the most ruthless years after the revolution, the associates and heirs of Khomeini never quite let go of the idea of a state that would be both Islamic and democratic. Most of the excluded reformists remain believers in the possibility of reconciling the two, rather than secular politicians in waiting. Whether Iranians share their beliefs or not, it was the reformists' participation in government that gave the Islamic republic some broad legitimacy. That legitimacy has been draining away for a long time, partly because the reformists in office proved ill-organised, divided and indecisive, and partly because Iranian expectations of political and economic improvement were too high. Above all, it has been because the reformists' attempts to curtail the role of the unelected conservatives - who control the judiciary and security forces, discipline the press and vet candidates for office - have been unsuccessful.
The revolution shared out power between two sets of institutions, the pinnacle of one being the democratically elected presidency. The other was headed by a "supreme leader", whose function was to act as spiritual guide to the nation and take final decisions when necessary, with an appointed council of guardians below him. The uneasy relationship of the two orders, one dominated by conservatives and the other, in recent years, by reformists, rested on an implicit bargain. The conservatives needed the popular support the reformists brought, the reformists needed the steel of conservative resolve to prevent the changes they wanted sending Iran down the slippery slope toward a secular state. Though both agreed there was a line that should not be crossed, they could not agree where it lay. The result was the abortive politics of recent years. Much was ventured, but conservative vetoes meant nothing was gained. Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, the supreme leader, seemed more the captive of the conservatives than their chief, and consistently failed to maintain a balance between the forces.
Iranians lost patience. The once popular Khatami is now much reviled, the radical student movement has parted company from the parliamentary reformists, and in the municipal elections a year ago the turnout was less than 30%. Meanwhile, many in both the conservative and reformist ranks continued using their positions to gain wealth and advantage, adding to popular disillusion.

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