Life after the oil crash

[zonmoy]

Civilization as we know it is coming to an end soon. This is not the wacky conclusion of a religious cult, but rather the result of diligent analysis sourced by hard data and the scientists who study global “Peak Oil” and related geo-political events.



So who are these nay-sayers who claim the sky is falling? Conspiracy fanatics? Apocalypse Bible prophesy readers? To the contrary, they are some of the most respected, highest paid geologists and experts in the world. And this is what's so scary

http://www.lifeaftertheoilcrash.net/

Perhaps our problems are much bigger than we think.

[DenverDem]

1. This is why we need a real leader, not just ABB.

Somebody needs to start telling The People the truth, not just keeping them pacified until the super rich can ensure that they will survive the Energy Crash.

Kucinich is the only candidate who comes close to having the kind of guts and integrity that is required to deal with this problem, and even he may not be up to it.

[zonmoy]

2. kuchinich might actually tell the truth

But can he solve the problem, can anybody. Or will we just have to accept that 90% of the human species has to die off in the near future.

[DenverDem]

7. Telling the truth is the first step, at least.

This was what Jimmy Carter was trying to tell us in the 70's but we were not ready to listen and look what we've got now as a result.

[BlueEyedSon]

3. Well DUH, why do you think we invaded Iraq?

[stepnw1f]

5. Yeah

I read that online article. It scared the hell out of me. I also did a Google search on Peak Oil. His sources look pretty credible so far. People should read it.

[rfranklin]

4. This is why we had to invade Afghanistan and Iraq...

Control of oil and pipelines will become increasingly lucrative as the price of oil skyrockets when it becomes widely known that the supply is drying up. Anyone who lived through the "shortage" of th e 1970's knows how crazy people can get when their petroleum addiction is starved. Only this time it will be the real deal.

The big boys in the oil business are positioning themselves to receive maximum benefit as the supply dwindles and we return to the good old days of burning wood and coal. Except now there is no easily obtainable supply of wood and coal. Imagine being in Minnesota with no heating oil or gas during the winter. Global trade will dry up without an alternative source of fuel to fly and sail the goods around the world. Economic disaster awaits us.

So what are we doing to face this inevitable crisis? Nothing. Not a goddam thing! Wahoo! It's gonna be a good old time for our kids and grandkids. What a fine fucking legacy!

[zonmoy]

6. perhaps

those of us who either decided not to have any kids or were unable to ever have kids are the ones that are best off since we wont have to watch them starve and freeze to death.

[BlueEyedSon]

8. It will be them or the grandkids that will suffer tremendously

unless we address the energy issue REAL SOON

[zonmoy]

9. Aren't

you assuming that there actually is a solution that would be doable. Neither the article or myself assumes that this problem can be solved without much misery in the future.

[BlueEyedSon]

10. One thing is certain, nothing will change unless we try.

SUV's should carry a SURCHARGE rather than a tax INCENTIVE.

Oil and gasoline should not be subsidized (think of the $150 billion of deficit pending for the Iraq camping trip as an subsidy). Anyone who has traveled knows we have the cheapest gas at the pump. C02 emissions should be considered pollution (roll back Clear Skies Initiative) and should be limited and carry fines.

Mass transit need to be expanded where it would have an impact. Cities could be redesigned somewhat (admittedly expensive and ambitious).

Investment in alternative sources such as wind & solar (Denmark gets 20+% of its electricity from wind). Govt grants, tax incentives etc.

Within the limits of physics, energy technology will be the IT of the next decade. What if the US was the leader, like we were in during the IT revolution?

We need to stretch our the "runway" a bit, make the remaining fossil fuels last a little longer, until we figure out the alternatives with a capital "A".

[zonmoy]

11. also tried posting this on free republic

all I ended up with there was comments that actually make me seem sane.

[Dirk39]

12. Doubts!

1:
"Wind power accounts for .07% of global energy supply"

Germany 1999: 1,5% of the electricity
Germany 2002: 3,5%
Germany 2006: 7%
2020 in Europe: about 13%, potential in Germany: 20%

The expectations were highered, the real development so far was always much faster than the most optimistic predictions.

2:
Noone can predict the increase in population, we're facing, but one thing can be said - demographic studies show this: as soon as the women in a given culture learn how to read and write, the birth-rates resemble those of european countries and the USA. And if there's one good thing to state about the world we live in: the literacy rate did never grow as fast as it it growing now.

3:
Food: IIRC to produce meat, you need about 7 times the energy and the space than to produce other food. There are alternatives to the fertilizers, we use today. If we would switch from meat to other food: how much would the predictments change?

Another question: if we would completely ban individual cars from the entire planet, how much oil would be left for other purposes? It would even higher our quality of live and the quality of living in cities?
I miss predictments about this.

I'm not an expert on these issues, just some ideas:-)

I see the problem, I know that we have a huge problem, and maybe there will be no happy end, but on the other hand: every given ruling class in history, that was facing the end of their glory, did alway imagine it as the end of it all. In science, in literature, in religion. Why should capitalism be different? The end of Haliburton and Bush might not be the end of humanity, maybe rather the beginning.

Dirk

[Dirk39]

13. A few numbers:

Use of energy USA/Japan/EU 1998



Use of energy in the USA:
1997: 3123,6 Mio t. SKE (UN)
China: 1208,8 Mio t. SKE (population 4 times as high)
per head: USA 11493 kg SKE (nach UN)
Germany: half of it, although we have the same average living standard, or it might be even higher in Germany.
Brasil: 9% of the USA

Oil: in the year 2000 875,0 mio t., that's about 7 times as high as in Germany, 9 times as high as in Brazil.


"5.5 billion deaths?"
Death is as unfair as live. One U.S. citizen equals 100 inferior beings.

Dirk