Weapons of Mass Delusiion WMDs: Flawed Intelligence Flawed Interpretation

[jbfam4]

Weapons of Mass Delusion
WMDs: Flawed Intelligence Flawed Interpretation


http://www.newsday.com/news/opinion/ny-cov3650781feb01,0,5081762.story?coll=ny-editorials-headlines
February 1, 2004


David Kay, former head of the U.S. team searching for weapons of mass destruction in Iraq, is a bit like the legendary boy who dared say the emperor had no clothes. When Kay resigned, he finally stated the obvious: Iraq had no stockpiles of such weapons, the key White House justification for going to war.

Kay had gone looking for biological and chemical weapons and nuclear bomb programs, fully convinced they existed. He was in good company. Every intelligence agency in the Western world - regardless of how its government viewed the legitimacy of the war in Iraq - believed the same thing. So did former President Bill Clinton's national security team. So did United Nations weapons inspectors and UN Secretary-General Kofi Annan.

Sweep aside for a moment the political backbiting, the self-justifications and the partisan finger-pointing swirling around the probability that Iraq ceased to possess WMD stockpiles or even significant programs to manufacture them since at least the mid-1990s. The stark reality is that their existence was accepted as incontrovertible by this nation's foreign-policy establishment, from intelligence analysts to national security advisers to top policy-makers to, finally, two presidents, one of whom - George W. Bush - went to war over them.

How did everyone get it so wrong, and what can be done to make sure such an intelligence debacle doesn't happen again? The answers aren't simple. It may take an independent investigation to sort it all out. It may not be possible: To avoid overestimating one risk may result in underestimating the next one.

Mutual Self-Delusion

And it's crucial to distinguish between failures of the intelligence community and the outright distortions and exaggerations by White House policy-makers. They made a bad situation worse. But on the question of the intelligence product itself, not what policy-makers did with the intelligence, it appears that players on both sides of Iraq's fence were caught in a deadly game of mutual self-delusion.

[4dsc]

1. Didn't Scott Ritter tell us this??

I mean, this is not new NEWS, to those that chose to believe what Mr Ritter was stating last year!!

IMPEACH BUSH!!

[H2O Man]

2. this administration lied.

To the congress, to the public, to the UN, to the world community. The congress believed him, as did a significant % of the public. The UN didn't. The world community certainly didn't. It seems pathetic to try to blame the CIA etc. As General Clark noted: Bush is entirely and solely responsible.

[DrBB]

3. This just pisses me off

I know he's basically taking "our" side. But this stupid pretence that "everyone got it so wrong."

'Everyone" did NOT get it wrong. There were any number of doubters and critics of this analysis before the war, and Scott Ritter was just one of 'em.

WE KNEW. Okay? Here on DU. Here on the web, where you could read stuff other than Bush propaganda. WE KNEW WE KNEW WE KNEW WE KNEW WE KNEW WE KNEW WE KNEW WE KNEW.

God dammit. I knew. How come I knew, and they didn't?

[dennis4868]

4. You are right....

there were entire agencies (DOE, DOS, DIA) that disagreed with PNAC/Office of Special Plane/NIE...WHY IS EVERYONE SAYING THAT EVERYONE GOT IT WRONG? And even though these above-named agencies said that the WH/PNAC/Office of Special Plane/NIE had it wrong with regards to WMD/nuclear weapons, Bush and Cheney still told the country that "there was no doubt that Iraq had WMD and reconstituted their nuclear weapons program."

[Jack Rabbit]

5. How do we make sure such an intelligence debacle doesn't happen again?

First, both Dick Cheney and Scooter Libby should be banned from entering the city of Langley, Virginia.

Second, anybody associated with the Office of Special Planning should be removed from his job at the Pentagon. That includes Rumsfled and Wolfowitz.

Third, re-defeat Bush in 2004, only this time make sure everybody knows he's beat.

[Martin Eden]

6. Bunch of B.S.

I didn't bother reading much past this paragraph:

"Every intelligence agency in the Western world - regardless of how its government viewed the legitimacy of the war in Iraq - believed the same thing. So did former President Bill Clinton's national security team. So did United Nations weapons inspectors and UN Secretary-General Kofi Annan."

This simply isn't true. Most intelligence agencies assumed that Iraq still maintained some bio-chem stock to one degree or another, but they did not all believe the same thing!

The assertions coming out of the Bush administration were quantitatively and qualitatively more dire than was generally accepted concerning bio-chem, and the state of Saddam's nuclear program was a subject of considerable disagreement. About the same time the UN team was announcing there was no evidence of a revived nuclear program, Cheney was saying he believe Iraq had indeed "reconstituted nuclear weapons."

And when it comes to an operational nexus between the secular regime in Iraq and the al Qaeda terrorists, the pronouncments of Bush & co. weren't even in sync with the CIA's own conclusions.

This Newsday article is an attempt to spin this entire issue to make it look like the entire world was totally mistaken about Iraq's WMD stockpiles. It's a load of bullshit, and is a discredit to the publication.

[Snappy]

7. Please explain

If the Admin. knew there were no WMDs then they also knew that this would be the news that David Kay would announce, right?

If they thought that Kay wouldn't say that but just resign with some excuse like he needs to spend more time with his family then this situation is understandable. Why Kay didn't say that or something of a beneign nature is a mystery to me. Seems that he bit the hands that were feeding him to some extent but cleverly gave them a way out by putting the fault onto the CIA. It is still awkard for them is it not?

Now with Bush announcing this special investigation to be concluded in '05 that takes the monkey off of their back. that commision can come up with a whitewash and merely scold the CIA somewhat.

[Martin Eden]

8. The B.S. I sopke of

Was the nonsense that the rest of the world concurred with the assertions coming out of the White House and Pentagon. No doubt Bushco figured that some illegal weapons would turn up, but I have doubts that they actually believed everything they were saying.

This administration takes dishonesty and deception to new levels, and to some degree they fool themeselves. They're guilty of group-think, igoring facts and logic that don't concur with their pre-conceived policy agendas.

David Kay could not have just resigned without reporting the results of his massive search, and he's not really biting the Bush hands that appointed him -- he says it is the intelligence agencies that owe Bush an apology for providing wrong assessments.

This is more B.S., because the pressure Cheney put on analysts to come up with the right answers is well known, as is the Pentagon's OSP (Office of Special Plans) that was created to glean unfiltered intelligence (however unereliable) that supported their case for war.

The "independent" commission, though presumably bipartisan, is being appointed by Bush, and it remains to be seen whether they will be examining the roles of the White House and Pentagon in cooking the intelligence. In any event, this commission won't likely finish their task until after the election. I don't know if Bush can pull off a whitewash, but he can certainly stall any incriminating results until after the election.