Juan Cole: Oil Peak or Peak Oil?

[robertpaulsen]

Wednesday, October 17, 2007
Oil Peak or Peak Oil?

The tensions between Turkey and Iraqi Kurdistan contributed to jitteriness in the oil markets that drove the prices to as high as $88.20 at one point on Tuesday before falling back to over $87. The oil price spike in turn frightened investors and hit stock markets around the world.

The United States consumes about 21 million barrels of petroleum every day. About 85 million barrels a day is produced in the entire world. The US thus consumes about a fourth of the supply, even though it has only 5 percent of the world's population. The US only produces about 7.5 million barrels a day, so it has to import some 13 million. the geniuses in the White House have so alienated some US suppliers, like Venezuela, that Caracas is planning to sell nearly half of its over 2 mn. b/d to China rather than selling it all to the US. Since petroleum is now increasingly scarce and is a seller's market, Chavez's plan would cut down on the amount of petroleum available to the US.

On the other hand, nearly a fourth of US dwellings completely lack insulation, and most others have old windows that radiate away energy, just plain holes and gaps through which energy escapes, etc. If Bush had given tax breaks for putting in insulation and for conservation instead of giving away billions to rich people who don't need it, the US would have saved millions of barrels a day, replacing everything Iraq or Venezuela produces (and wiping out the reason for the Iraq War).

snip

Cheney's militarism is too blunt an instrument for the delicate job of assuring US energy security. Nearly $90 a barrel is not security for us-- it is a threat to our economy. Prices may not stay this high all that long in the short term, since primary commodity markets to fluctuate. But as the peak oil people point out, no new big fields have been found or exploited for a very long time, and demand from China, India and elsewhere is growing rapidly. It is going to be an expensive or cold winter for a lot of Americans. It likely won't be the last. Courtesy in some part, the short-sighted and counter-productive policies of one of the country's most notorious traitors, Richard Bruce Cheney.

http://www.juancole.com/2007/10/oil-peak-or-peak-oil.html

[Baby Snooks]

1. $89.47

Oil futures closed today at $89.47. Part of the problem is the devaluation of the dollar against the euro. Doesn't look like "happy days" are coming back any time soon.

[libodem]

2. The goal is to make it a

$100.00 per barrel. We didn't go into Iraq to get more oil but to slow the production. I also believe that is why we don't want, Iran, to have nuclear power. They could then sell their oil to foreign markets instead of using to run the country. Too, much oil on the market would drive down prices and profits. I hadn't thought of it that much until I heard, Glenn Beck, protest too much that Iran was, "floating on oil, why should it need Nuclear Power?" Why is it any of our business? Peak oil, shmeek oil, I think that is also a way to up prices based of future availability, which is all conjecture.

[bhikkhu]

3. there are countries, of course, that would benefit from that strategy..

The Saudis, Venezuela, Russia, etc., and it is not hard to imagine such a motive for all to stand aside as we rushed to war.

But the only prospect for US benefit, given the massive expenditures even optimistic scenarios predicted, was for the Iraqi oil fields to quickly go back online on a privatized basis, feeding their profits to western corporate nation-rebuilders while keeping down oil prices. The notion that the current mess was some plan laid for our benefit is absurd.

I am fairly sure history will see it as the majority see it now: the predictable result of massively stupid enterprise, draining the economy and reputation of the US dry, as our rivals on the world economic stage reap windfalls of cash and influence.