Posted here at the DU on May 22 by yours truly.
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Are the Democrats Facing a Locked Convention in '08? Could That Favor Al Gore?
Hard Fact: The rules still apply and it still will take take 50% of the delegates in Denver to clinch the Democratic Party's nomination in 2008.
The Status Quo: The way things are playing out in poll after poll, none of our top tiered candidates -- Hillary Clinton, Barack Obama and John Edwards--- can seem wiggle their way out of their 20% to 30% range in support. They all seem to have their "ceilings" of support thus far.
The Al Gore Factor: The man whose photo graces the cover of Time Magazine (again) this week, who is the first choice former President Jimmy Carter, the choice of of Silicon Valley executives, environmentalists, many studio heads in Hollywood and still a great percentage of voters, has still not given a nod or the shake of his head on another run at the White House. Like it or not, there are a lot of people sitting on the sidelines in hopes that Al and Tipper will go for it.
Other Factors: The seasoned and very sharp Governor of New Mexico, Bill Richardson, will outperform all expectations in both the early and heavily Latino populated Nevada and California contests and will arrive at the DNC in Denver with his own core of delegates pledged to him.
Survey Says! For the first time in political eons, there is a growing possibility that -- after the first and second roll calls of delegates in Denver are made -- that we may not have a nominee for the November general election for President. Should Hillary be locked at 30%, Barack locked at 30%, Edwards locked at 30% and Richardson locked at 10%, what is a national convention of fired up delegates in the Mile-High City to do? Who would be the consensus candidate?
Why, I think it's quite obvious, don't you?
Having been a delegate from California to two of our party's national conventions, I can tell you that candidate loyalty will run true only for so many roll calls before the dynamic changes. Delegates are, for the most part, activists in their on right within the party. A Gore draft at the convention, even if he stays out of the slug-festing primaries, is a real possibility with the way the current crop of candidates are polling.
Don't discount this possibility. I imagine that none other than Bill Clinton himself considers it a lot. It's just math and emotion that makes it happen.
The upside for Al would be that the Republicans would have a truly shortened hunting season to attack him, wouldn't they?
In any event, I am beginning to believe that this may indeed be how it all plays out. Mark my word.
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=show_topic&forum=389&topic_id=941632