Pinkerton: Saddam Is Caught - Now What?

[jbfam4]

Saddam Is Caught - Now What?
Bush, Iraq Face Plenty of Problems
http://www.newsday.com/news/opinion/ny-vppin153584843dec15,0,561014.column?coll=ny-viewpoints-headlines
December 15, 2003


Such violence, of course, will complicate the creation of a stable pro-American government in Iraq. The conventional wisdom in Washington is that the White House will arrange the virtual withdrawal of American troops - at least from the hot zones - by the middle of 2004, so that Bush can stand for re-election on a platform of zero casualties abroad and much prosperity at home.

But Bush's path to a second term might yet be bumpy. The Shia, who comprise 60 percent of the Iraqi population, have figured out that holding an honest election in Iraq would put them in power for the first time in the nation's history. And the top Shia cleric, Ayatollah Sistani, is a near dead-ringer for the late Ayatollah Khomeini of Iran, and his political views seem similar, too.

Which is to say, Shia control of Iraq is anathema to the secular and pro-Western officials we have installed in Baghdad. And so a power struggle is being waged. If elections are delayed or subverted, as seems likely, that power struggle could become a civil war.

Meanwhile, the U.S.-funded Iraqi police and army are honeycombed with quitters, deserters and informers. Without the active combat participation of Americans, the government in Baghdad would fall to the ayatollahs, just as the government of the Shah of Iran's regime fell a quarter-century ago.

But today is a day of celebration. After all, these bleak scenarios might not play out till after November 2004.