India to overtake United States by 2050: Report

[OhioChick]

< 24 Jan, 2007 0044hrs ISTTIMES NEWS NETWORK >


MUMBAI: Productivity growth will help India sustain over 8% growth until 2020 and become the second largest economy in the world, ahead of the US, by 2050, Goldman Sachs has said, scaling up estimates of the country's prospects in its October 2003 research paper widely known as the BRICs report.

The original report had projected that India's GDP would outstrip Japan's by 2032 and that in 30 years, it would be the world's third largest economy after China and the US. The new report goes one step further by moving India up from No. 3 and No. 2 in the global sweepstakes of tomorrow.

Goldman Sachs' research arm said in a global research paper released on Monday that India's growth acceleration since 2003 represented a structural increase rather than simply a cyclical upturn. It said productivity growth drove nearly half of overall growth and expected it to continue for some years.

"We project India's potential or sustainable growth rate at about 8% until 2020. The implication is that India's contribution to world growth will be even greater (and faster) than implied in our previous BRICs research," Goldman Sachs Global Research said.

http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/India_poised_to_overtake_United_States_by_2050_Report/articleshow/1411052.cms

[acmavm]

1. Well, they've already got our jobs. I tried to call Office Depot customer

service recently. I almost had to ask for an interpreter. They also are doing our tax returns.

Hell yes they're gonna overtake us.

[mainegreen]

2. Well, with double the population, in a fair economic world they *should* be.

[rox63]

3. more than triple, actually

[Virginia Dare]

4. Will it take that long? Somehow I doubt it...n/t

[GliderGuider]

5. With what energy?

In case anyone hasn't noticed, we're at or near Peak Oil, and from here on out energy is just going to get more and more expensive. The Indians and the Chinese don't even have the luxury of increasing their energy intensity - they're doing all that heavy life manufacturing that we sent over there.

India and China have come much too late to the development table. I suspect we'll see a maximum of 15 years of growth from both of them, and then they will hit the wall. There simply aren't enough cheap resources left to fuel such an expansion for longer than that. And if they try to keep going anyway, we'll wind up choking on coal-generated CO2 as Global Warming gently fries us all.

These growth predictions are a peek into the mouth of Hell.

[Bobbieo]

6. Will anything be left on earth buy2050?

[GliderGuider]

7. Oh I think so. We might not recognize it, though.

Actually, I take that back. Those who have watched documentary footage of North Korea and Sudan will see some familiar sights.

We are so screwn.

[The Traveler]

8. Maybe

But who can tell? The ramifications of climate change are far too complex to make any such predictions. High energy technology civilization may or may not survive the experience. The very notion of free market capitalism may be a vague notion old timers wax nostalgic over. Their analysis is full of assumptions, none of which are safe today.