The Wall Street Journal
Making Babies
June 2, 2006; Page W13
In his 2004 book, "The Empty Cradle: How Falling Birthrates Threaten World Prosperity and What to Do About It," Phillip Longman exploded one of the planet's most enduring modern myths. He demonstrated that population growth is not the threat that it has been made out to be and that population decline is the real challenge ahead of us.
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What a change from only a few decades ago, when conventional wisdom had it that the only route to prosperity was smaller families. In 1968, biologist Paul Ehrlich famously predicted that hundreds of millions of people would starve to death in the 1970s and '80s thanks to overpopulation. Not only have Mr. Ehrlich's predictions not borne out but there is no evidence that overpopulation has ever been at the root of poverty. As economist Thomas Sowell has noted, there is no country that had a higher standard of living when its population was half of what it is today.
Oddly, economic opportunity turns out to be an astoundingly effective form of birth control. When people don't need to use children as worker bees in a desperate struggle to survive, and -- more important -- when they can imagine a secure future for their offspring, they tend to plan families with fewer children in the hope of showering each with more advantages. At some point the scale tips, however, and people enjoy their own creature comforts so much that they become disinclined to spend time and money on more children. That's one reason to doubt whether incentive plans for childbearing will work.
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Yet sometimes, it seems, the balance is just about right. Thanks in part to immigration, the U.S. is not facing a population deficit. Other factors are at work, too. This country has a high rate of religious belief, which usually corresponds to a higher birthrate, as well as a general sense of optimism. On the practical side, the U.S. has a tax regime that is not too crushing and, at present at least, a job market ready to absorb the next generation. All these things encourage parents to indulge a natural desire to raise children. With its cradle still full, the U.S. is in effect seconding Mr. Longman's theme. Our thriving economy is testimony to the fact that human beings, so long demonized as the ultimate threat to the planet, are its most indispensable resource.
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