The Chávez effect

[T_i_B]

http://www.guardian.co.uk/worldbriefing/story/0,,1788579,00.html

Daniel Ortega led a rogue state before rogue states were invented. As chief engineer of Nicaragua's 1980s leftwing Sandinista revolution, he became Ronald Reagan's favourite Central American whipping boy. The US government conspired with so-called Contra rebels to overthrow him. He was eventually voted out of office in 1990, beaten by a US-backed candidate.

Mr Ortega hasn't given up - and says he has changed since the days of struggle. "That moment has passed. This revolution is peaceful," he said last week. To prove his point, he picked a former Contra leader and banker, Jaime Morales Carazo, as his running mate in presidential elections due in November. "We have to send a signal to the poor but also to the private sector. And what better signal than Morales?"

But like other leftwing parties fighting tight election races in Latin America this year, the new-look Sandinistas have a problem they cannot control. It is called Hugo Chávez, the Venezuelan president and self-styled socialist revolutionary who seems hell-bent on recreating cold war-era confrontation with Washington. As political hopefuls from Mexico to Peru are discovering, Mr Chávez can be a dangerous friend.

"I shouldn't say I hope you win because they will accuse me of sticking my nose into Nicaraguan affairs," Mr Chávez told Mr Ortega recently. "But I hope you win." As predicted, his intervention brought protests from rivals and Nicaragua's government. So, too, did his offer of cheap fuel for Sandinista voters. It was not an endorsement suited to Mr Ortega's new image. A similar story is unfolding in Mexico, where pollsters suggest the Chávez effect is scaring voters away from Andrés Manuel López Obrador, the left's candidate in next month's presidential contest. Rightwingers ran TV ads likening his tactics to those of the pugnacious Mr Chávez - and Mr López Obrador's poll lead disappeared.

[RagingInMiami]

1. Ego can be such a double-edged sword

[Warren Stupidity]

2. Second is a series of a calculated disinformation campaign

designed to divide the emerging latin american leftist/populist block. The Neocon Times ran almost the identical story last month, including lots of supportng quotes from Wolfowitz's PNAC think tank alma mater at Johns Hopkins. Polsters are suggesting what they are told to suggest, in my opinion.

The meme is that Chavez is 'poison' and that everyone should stay away from him. This has the effect of isolating Chavez and hopefully convincing leftist/populist parties that any electoral defeat is 'hugo's fault'. Divide and conquer baby, same old story, same old game.