A proposed deal to end Iran's disputed nuclear program highlights a new reality facing the United States: American intercessions overseas will be seen through the prism of an Iraq war that is highly unpopular around the globe. The Iran proposal also highlights two truths of diplomacy that endure from the days of the Cold War — nuclear weapons buy nations bargaining power they would not otherwise have, and that power can only be countered with muscle from the United States.
With U.S. forces and fortunes lashed to Iraq for years to come, nations that the United States cannot afford to alienate can insist that Washington give diplomacy every chance to succeed before resorting to economic punishment or military force, foreign policy scholars said. Even many American allies believe the Iraq war was avoidable.
"Obviously, Iraq has made a major negative impact on American credibility," said Trita Parsi, a Middle East specialist at Johns Hopkins University School of Advanced International Studies.
Russia and China, which both opposed the Iraq war, have held off consideration of global sanctions on Iran in part out of concern that the United States had not tried every other option, Parsi said. The U.S. offer on Wednesday to bargain directly with Iran helped begin to dispel that worry.
The United States, Russia, China and three major European powers agreed Thursday on an either-or deal of incentives or punishments for Iran that would form the basis for a new round of talks involving the U.S. If Iran agrees to talk, it would be the first major face-to-face diplomacy between the U.S. and Iran in more than a quarter century.
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