If this is Ahmadinejad's bluff, it is bluff worth calling
The only route to regime change and disarmament is engagement, so the US must respond to this week's letter from Tehran
Simon Jenkins
...
A detailed survey of US-Iranian relations in March's New Yorker revealed the full extent of bilateral contacts until they were stymied, first by Bush's 2003 neocon national security directive and then by his ham-fisted intervention in the 2005 Iranian election, which helped Ahmadinejad to power. Even today there are plenty of Iranians who want no quarrel with America, and certainly not with America, Russia and China together. It is probably they who forced Ahmadinejad to send Monday's dovish letter to Washington, to which the Republican head of the Senate foreign relations committee, Richard Lugar, thinks America should respond.
This is the "engagement" strategy that Straw was adopting, to the increasing dismay of Blair and the White House, when he was toppled. Its shortcoming was to lack the belligerent machismo that is the default mode of London and Washington - and now of Ahmadinejad in Tehran. Just as the latter is Bush's ideal raving Islamicist, so Bush is the latter's ideal raving western imperialist. The collapse of the occupation of Iraq offers Tehran a daily foretaste of the glory awaiting Iran's soldiers and their surrogate militias across the Middle East should America launch an attack. Each sabre rattled in Washington is music to the army's ears, as it bids to spend Iran's swollen oil revenues on rearmament.
The trouble with big-stick diplomacy in this case is that its implied deterrence is implausible. There is no conceivable justification for a military attack on Iran when Bush's own intelligence chief, John Negroponte, puts a minimum of "five to 10 years" on its acquisition of weapons-grade plutonium. Bombing factories might impede this but not stop it from happening sooner or later, and would clearly induce Tehran to make that sooner. But then even Russia at its most paranoid and North Korea at its craziest never used nuclear bombs. They are not weapons or deterrents, merely status symbols. And America's acceptance of them in the hands of Pakistan, India and Israel is a gift to the xenophobic rabble-rousers of Tehran.
Washington can spend millions on pirate Tehran broadcasts, but moderate Iranians are crying to the west to stop bolstering Ahmadinejad. It is doing to him what it did to Saddam, putting him on television every night as a global champion of Islam. The one hope of curbing his rhetorical excesses is for his own people to rein him in, and that cannot happen when the west continues to make him regional hero number one. Bush seems unable to comprehend that his castigating a Muslim leader is not an insult but an accolade.
...
http://www.guardian.co.uk/comment/story/0,,1771225,00.html