NYT: Present at the Disintegration (of Iraq)

[Barrett808]

Present at the Disintegration
By KANAN MAKIYA
Published: December 11, 2005

WASHINGTON and Baghdad will be tempted, with the adoption of a new Constitution and the election on Thursday for a four-year government, to declare victory in Iraq. In one sense, they are right to do so. The emerging Iraqi polity undoubtedly represents a radical break not only with the country's past but also with the whole Arab state system established by Britain and France after the collapse of the Ottoman Empire.

But in the larger sense, such optimism is misguided, for none of the problems associated with Iraq's monumental change have been sorted out. Worse, profound tensions and contradictions have been enshrined in the Constitution of the new Iraq, and they threaten the very existence of the state.

How did we get here? Much has been said about American failures in Iraq. And rightly so. But, as I've seen as a participant in political discussions both before and after the war, we Iraqis have also failed to lay the ground for a new order. For the new political elite cast into power by the elections last January has been unable even to begin to create a stable and strong Iraqi state to replace the one overthrown in April 2003. The increasing daily casualty rate for Iraqis, from 26 in early 2004 to an average of 64 in this fall, is only the most glaring sign that something has gone terribly wrong, and not for lack of any American effort to turn the situation around.

Unfortunately, we cannot expect the situation to change following Thursday's election. There is little chance that the winner will command the authority inside Parliament to reverse the decline, for a simple reason: the Constitution.

All signs suggest that this Constitution, if it is not radically amended, will further weaken the already failing central Iraqi state. In spite of all the rhetoric in that document about the unity of the "homeland of the apostles and prophets" and the "values and ideals of the heavenly messages and findings of science" that have played a role in "preserving for Iraq its free union," it is disunity, diminished sovereignty and years of future discord that lie in store for Iraq if the Constitution is not overhauled. ...

(more)

http://www.nytimes.com/2005/12/11/opinion/11makiya.html?ex=1291957200&en=b9e85f79ebfa1401&ei=5088&partner=rssnyt&emc=rss

[thebigidea]

1. almost cute the way he pretends any of this stuff is relevant

"diminished sovereignty and years of future discord that lie in store for Iraq if the Constitution is not overhauled"

oh, that'll happen anyway.

[bemildred]

2. You have to like the dispassionate intellectual tone.

Look how high-minded we are through all this unfortunate business, which of course was none of our doing.

[JPZenger]

3. MSNBC Report on Suicide Bombers

Last night, MSNBC had a good report on the suicide bombers in Iraq. They said that many are educated and come from good families. They are not the typical losers/loners that you might expect would be recruited. The largest numbers are from Saudi Arabia, with others from Egypt, Syria, etc. Recently, there has been an increase in Suicide bombers from Northwest Africa. Most travel through Syria to reach Iraq. MSNBC also found that there was a surplus of volunteers to be suicide bombers - that they are actually being turned away.

The report said that they are mainly motivated by the fact that the US has invaded and occupied a Muslim country - not because "they hate our freedom." Some experts have questioned whether the US military presence in Iraq is the main cause of the terrorism that we are supposedly there to stop.