Hirsch Testimony On Peak Oil

[mhr]

07 December 2005
TESTIMONY ON PEAK OIL

Dr. ROBERT L. HIRSCH,
SENIOR ENERGY PROGRAM ADVISOR, SAIC.
BEFORE THE HOUSE SUBCOMMITTEE ON ENERGY AND AIR QUALITY
WEDNESDAY, DECEMBER 7, 2005

SUMMARY

The era of plentiful, low-cost petroleum is approaching an end. A recent analysis for the DOE focused on what might be done to mitigate the peaking of world oil production. It became abundantly clear that effective mitigation will be dependent on the implementation of mega-projects and mega-changes at the maximum possible rate. A scenario analysis was performed, based on crash program implementation worldwide – the fastest humanly possible. The timing of oil peaking was left open because of the considerable differences of opinion among experts. The results were startling: Unless a mitigation crash program is started 20 years before peaking occurs, the economic consequences will be dire.

Oil peaking represents a liquid fuels problem, because motor vehicles, aircraft, trucks, and ships have no ready alternative to liquid fuels, certainly not for the existing capital stock, which has lifetimes measured on a decade scale.
The world has never confronted a problem like peak oil. Since it is uncertain when peaking will occur, the challenge for decision-makers is vexing. Mustering support for an approaching, invisible disaster is much more difficult than for one that is obvious. We would like to believe that the optimists are right about peak oil being a distant problem, but the risks of error are beyond imagination.

Snip ......

http://www.tceconomist.blogspot.com/

[Deja Q]

1. At current rate we still have 2 years. Lower our use and we'll have more.

Getting rid of us, especially Americans, will dramatically lower the need.

Hence the Katrina fiasco and all this offshoring and offpeopling.

'Patriot Act' is in the background, should the system break before they are ready. That way it's more justified to kill off big chunks of our population if we don't comply...

[Kelvin Mace]

2. Too late

Unless a mitigation crash program is started 20 years before peaking occurs, the economic consequences will be dire.

Peak is probably within 10 years if not sooner.

[Skink]

3. What's a mitigation crash program?

[Kelvin Mace]

5. Conservation & new technology

Spending something on the order of $40 billion a year on alternate energy source instead of the pittance we spend now.

[TomClash]

4. What about . . . ?

The Oil Industry Growth Challenge: Expanding Production Capacity

On December 7, 2005 Robert Esser Robert Esser testified before a House Energy and Air Quality Subcommittee hearing on Understanding the Peak Oil Theory.

Our key points are as follows:

1. The world is not running out of oil in the near or medium term. Our field-by-field activity-based analysis points to a substantial build-up of liquid capacity over the next several years. Where did they get the data for a field-by-filed analysis in Suadi Arabia?

2. An increasing share of supplies will come from "non traditional oils"—from the ultra-deep waters, oil sands, natural gas liquids, gas-to-liquids, coal-to-liquids, etc. As time goes on, these "non-traditionals" will become more traditional. Where and how plentiful are these "non-traditionals?"

3. Rather than a "peak," we should expect an "undulating plateau," perhaps three or four decades from now. In other words, waves. But 3 or 4 decades?


http://www.cera.com/news/details/1,,7777,00.html

[mhr]

6. Go Here For Very Intelligent Conversation On These Issues

www.theoildrum.com