Keys to the White House Point to Turnabout in 2008

[bobd]

"Although the next presidential election is three and a half years away, the Keys already point to a dramatic political turnabout in 2008. It is still too early for a definite prediction. However, the Keys suggest that the Democrats are likely to regain the White House in 2008 regardless of their choice of a nominee. The difficult historical position of the Republicans also explains what’s happening in politics today."

Here's the lincque to the full article.

He was right in both 2000 and 2004. Damn, I hope this is true.

Bob D.

[NoodleBoy]

1. what does he say about Congress?

[bobd]

2. His Theory only Covers the Presidency

He's worked on a "Keys to the Senate" book but it wasn't as accurate as the Keys to the Whitehouse.

[Kolesar]

3. foreign/military success and failure keys will turn on unforeseeable event

I recall 57% of Americans think bush* lied to get us into the Iraq column. That number will not reverse for bush. I think the Dems have that key in their pocket.

"*Likewise both the foreign/military success and failure keys will turn on unforeseeable events abroad and in homeland security within the United States. "

[Ravenseye]

4. I don't know

Lets look at the keys

Bush Keys

Third Party
Social Upheaval
Scandal
Charisma

Democrat Keys

Mandate (if they get 4 more seats in 2006)
Contest (Republicans likely to battle for nominee)
Incumbency (Bush can't run again)
Policy Change (Bush ain't gonna get nuthin done)
Hero (Bush ain't gonna be a hero)

Up For Grabs

long term economy
short term economy
foreign success
milliary success

Dems need 6 to win...I don't know what the election in 2006 will be like but if the Repubs keep doing what they're doing and lying and doing terror alerts and invading countries....that mandate might not switch....going over to the Republicans and making it 5/4 Republicans...If they spin the foreign and military angle again like they always do they'r eup 7/4...Which means unless the economy tanks then the Republicans will win...

hopefully that won't happen, I'm just sying that write up is way too early. I love when something says "It's still to early to even contemplate this but...."

[bobd]

5. Yeah, Well the ONLY Reason It's Encouraging

is because Lichtman is the co-creator of the theory. Plus it's teeny-tiny bit of good news in a sea of horror. Even if it last for 37 minutes I'll take it.

[Ravenseye]

6. You want good news? I'll give you good news...

Um....well there's...no...not that....um....

Ok fine...enjoy it.

[Jackpine Radical]

7. Three words.

Diebold.
Sequoia.
ES&S.

Summary: Ain't gonna happen.