Common Dreams: The Long Emergency

[Raster]

Published on Wednesday, April 13, 2005 by Rolling Stone

The Long Emergency

What's going to happen as we start running out of cheap gas to guzzle?

by James Howard Kunstler

A few weeks ago, the price of oil ratcheted above fifty-five dollars a barrel, which is about twenty dollars a barrel more than a year ago. The next day, the oil story was buried on page six of the New York Times business section. Apparently, the price of oil is not considered significant news, even when it goes up five bucks a barrel in the span of ten days. That same day, the stock market shot up more than a hundred points because, CNN said, government data showed no signs of inflation. Note to clueless nation: Call planet Earth.

Carl Jung, one of the fathers of psychology, famously remarked that "people cannot stand too much reality." What you're about to read may challenge your assumptions about the kind of world we live in, and especially the kind of world into which events are propelling us. We are in for a rough ride through uncharted territory.

It has been very hard for Americans -- lost in dark raptures of nonstop infotainment, recreational shopping and compulsive motoring -- to make sense of the gathering forces that will fundamentally alter the terms of everyday life in our technological society. Even after the terrorist attacks of 9/11, America is still sleepwalking into the future. I call this coming time the Long Emergency.

Most immediately we face the end of the cheap-fossil-fuel era. It is no exaggeration to state that reliable supplies of cheap oil and natural gas underlie everything we identify as the necessities of modern life -- not to mention all of its comforts and luxuries: central heating, air conditioning, cars, airplanes, electric lights, inexpensive clothing, recorded music, movies, hip-replacement surgery, national defense -- you name it.

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http://www.commondreams.org/views05/0413-28.htm

[Daphne08]

1. I've tried to talk to my husband about this, but

it's as if he doesn't hear me.

I don't think he wants to face it.

I don't think most Americans CAN face it.

[bklyncowgirl]

2. Sobering information for a morning read.

Maybe I better put that tax refund into a wood burning stove and start training my rather spoiled saddle horse to pull a buggy.

Seriously, we are in for a rude awakening. I hope our leaders have the fortitude and vision to get us through the transition.

[Donailin]

3. The most comprehensive and realistic scenario yet presented

This is exactly what I have been imagining. This quote:"We will not believe that this is happening to us, that 200 years of modernity can be brought to its knees by a world-wide power shortage." is what people need to believe. It's going to happen in our lifetimes. In our children's lifetime.

Sigh. What are we going to do?

[IrateCitizen]

4. What are we going to do? What we can -- that's all we can do.

We can lament about this as much as we want, but it won't make things better. Also, shouting this from the rooftops won't get many people to listen. So, it's up to those of us who are the canaries in the coal mine, so to speak, to do something NOW to prepare for it.

We can start by moving to smaller towns, where agricultural lands will be more readily available. We can also take steps to make our homes livable through all seasons after there is no more cheap electricity, heat or air conditioning. We can live in areas that enable us to walk or bike almost everywhere we need to go. And we can seek out like-minded people who are looking to do the same.

That's pretty much it. It's a coming reality, not something that we can stop. What is important is that hope remains among many of us, and that we simply do what we can to build a life out of the aftermath.

Oh, and guns probably wouldn't be a bad idea either. Not necessarily for offensive purposes, but there will certainly be some groups looking to take from others by force as survival becomes more difficult in the earlier stages.

[Donailin]

10. "We can start by moving to smaller towns"

Unrealistic for me, and I imagine for most people who live in the suburbs as well as for those who are barely making it now. I'm really worried. I have three teens earning their way towards college through hard work and good grades. How does one strategize?

[Stuckinthebush]

5. So what does one do about it?

I guess we can invest in farm land and/or timber land. You can get 40 acres pretty cheaply these days in Alabama.

Perhaps start to look into going solar for a large portion of your electricity needs.

Read up on farming for your family.

Stock up on certain supplies that are inexpensive today, but will be rather expensive tomorrow.

Get a horse or a hybrid vehicle...or both.

Get others you know (family, friends) to purchase large tracts of land near or adjacent to your newly purchased 40 acres. This will facilitate commune style living in the bleak future.

I hate to say this...but get a gun or two with ammo. Desperate people do desperate things.

Make sure your 40 acres has a pond with fish.

Stock up on medical supplies.

Basically set yourself up in a position to take care of yourself and your family when the darkness comes.

I'm really not a dismal, end-of-the-world-as-we-know-it sort of guy, but I am reading more and more articles that predict the same thing...a move back to a more agrarian society due to the collapse of cheap energy.

Let's hope it doesn't happen, but I don't see any movement that will avert such a fate.

[diddlysquat]

6. I think it is too late for hybrid vehicles.

Horse might work though. Bicycles would be even better.

[barb162]

7. so when I tried talking to a friend about peak oil and what it means

he started insisting "they" will invent cars that run on water (steam), etc. I didn't know if that meant you'd put a coal or wood furnace under the hood or what. But the more you talk about it with some people, the more fantastical their responses become...they literally cannot fucking deal with it.

[Raster]

8. we had a preview of the long emergency back in the 70's...

but the industrial/petroleum complex shut down all discussion and rational thought. Jimmy Carter was FORCED out of office and any attempts to change the direction we were headed were curtailed. Remember little ronnie raygun and "morning in america?" We the people were sold down the pike slicker than shit. We had a wakeup call thirty years ago, but our "leaders" told us to ignore it and just go about our business consuming. Thirty years from now we probably will not recognize our world.

[IrateCitizen]

9. Thirty years from now, our "world" could consist of a 30-mile radius...

... around where we live. Seriously -- for most, that could be it. After all, long-distance transportation requires good roads, even for bike or horse and buggy. How will we maintain our roads without oil for the machinery or ability to mix and move asphalt and concrete?