Friday :: Mar 25, 2005
Start Playing "Taps" Karl - Gallup Says Rising Oil Prices, And Schiavo Are Hurting Bush Greatly
The latest CNN/USAT/Gallup Poll taken Monday through Wednesday of this week shows, as other polls have done recently, that Bush’s approval rating has fallen, in some cases to the lowest level of his presidency. According to the Gallup poll, Bush’s approval rating is now down to 45%, a seven-point drop from 52% just last week. And although this poll mirrors other recent polls that have also shown Bush’s numbers drop on the economy and Iraq, as he has pushed privatization and inserted himself into the Terri Schiavo tragedy, I am hesitant to put much into this poll for one major reason.
The poll had a Democratic bias of 5 points in its sample (37% Democrat, 32% Republican), while the recent Gallup polls had a GOP bias. Do I think Democrats have an edge over Republicans right now? Yes. Do I think it is five points? Maybe not, given that Harris feels it is three points through 2004. But what if the Terri Schiavo exploitation has led to more people self-identifying as Democrats now, and what if this isn’t a transitory move but the first signs of a shift towards the Democrats leading up to the 2006 elections? We’ll see.
Kudos to both USAT and Gallup for making the party ID numbers front and center in the story and the release.
The factors contributing to increasing dissatisfaction with the way Bush is handling his job also appear to be causing some Americans to drift toward identification with the Democratic Party, at least temporarily. The poll shows that the percentages of Americans who say they identify "as of today" as either a Republican or an independent are down slightly, from 35% Republican in Gallup's last poll to 32% in this poll, and from 31% independent to 29% independent. Identification with the Democratic Party is up from 32% to 37%. These relatively slight changes do not suggest a fundamental shift in the partisan structure in America today so much as they reflect a more negative mood at the moment toward both the president and his party.:nopity: :nopity: :nopity:
http://www.theleftcoaster.com/archives/003983.php#more